Four games into the 2015 MLS season and things are looking ominously familiar in Portland. March is over and yet again the Timbers have failed to win a game. Three draws and a loss is an improvement on last year’s two draws and two losses, but the similarities in the start to both seasons are eerie and worrisome. The Timbers are sitting at the bottom of the Western Conference and while there are valid reasons for some of the problems in Portland, that is a problem in and of itself.
Losing a team’s two most important players (Diego Valeri and Will Johnson, if you’ve been under a rock since September) and then losing their best midfield replacement (Ben Zemanski) is an okay excuse for not being at your absolute best as a team. No one expected the Timbers to come out flying and be top of the table after a month. It is not, however, an excuse for what has happened so far in 2015. It’s not an excuse for being bottom of the conference.
Portland’s situation is actually made worse by the fact that based on how they’ve played for about 340 minutes this season, the Timbers should probably have eight points instead of three. That would put them third in the Western Conference instead of last. However, they’ve played 360 minutes (plus stoppage time) this season, not 340. They have three points, not eight. Clearly something is wrong. Is it the defense? Is it the offense? Coaches? Players? Here’s what the Timbers need to fix to avoid a 2014 repeat.
The Defense
To most casual fans it might appear that the Timbers have a defensive problem. After all, they keep conceding late goals that are costing them points. I disagree. The Portland Timbers don’t have a defensive problem, they have a mental problem. Three of the four, arguably all four, goals the Timbers have conceded this season have come not because they were playing poor defense, but because of individual errors. Errors made by good defenders who were in position to make the right play and didn’t.
Against the LA Galaxy, Timbers CB Liam Ridgewell was in position to get between the ball and Gyasi Zardes on the Galaxy’s first goal and he simply didn’t. Similarly, goalkeeper Adam Kwarasey was in position to attack the ball and beat Zardes to it, he just didn’t. On the second goal Jorge Villafana was closely marking Alan Gordon, but someone who’s 5’9” shouldn’t be marking a 6’3” target on a corner. That’s just stupid. Everybody in the stadium knew that corner was going to be aimed at Gordon. Villafana never should’ve been the one marking him.
Nicolás Mezquida’s free kick goal for Vancouver is the only goal I’ll concede was not down to a stupid individual error, though I do think that Kwarasey could have saved it. It might be unfair to say he should have saved it, but he absolutely could have and a top keeper should.
The Whitecaps’ game winner last weekend typified Portland’s mistakes this year. Both Ridewell and Nat Borchers were in position to intercept the pass to Robert Earnshaw. Just a few minutes before, the Whitecaps had made a similar attack on the counter and Ridgewell calmly stepped in to break it up. Instead, they made a mistake not commonly seen beyond U9 soccer. Both seemed to say “it’s yours” rather than take charge, and the result was that neither made the play. The Timbers weren’t out of position defensively, they actually had 10 men behind the ball when the movement started, and they were organized. It was just a dumb mistake and it cost the Timbers a point.
The Offense
Creating chances has not been as much of a problem as three goals and two shutouts in four games might suggest. Portland is fifth in MLS with 36 chances created through four games. They’re sixth in MLS in expected goals per game, averaging 1.4 expected goals per game. By comparison, FC Dallas, who leads MLS with six goals in four games, is averaging just 1.12 expected goals.
While there certainly has been a change in the Timbers attack, going more direct and more through Darlington Nagbe as the main playmaker with Diego Valeri out, they’re still creating chances. They just aren’t converting as many as they should. Despite having scored all three goals for Portland, Fanendo Adi has been one of the main culprits. Two of those three goals were tap-ins from inside the six-yard box. While the third was a nice finish, he was one-on-one with the keeper with plenty of time and should finish it every time, something he failed to do in a late chance against Vancouver.
Given that they are creating chances, it should be expected that the goals will come, but they better start finishing soon or 2015 may end like 2014 did, with Portland outside the playoffs.
Coaching
Could the problem be coaching? Partially. In some ways, Caleb Porter has been brilliant this season. He’s had to deal with the aforementioned injury crisis and despite said crisis, the team looks good on the field. He’s adapted his tactical approach to make the most of the skills on the pitch. While mistakes have doomed them, most of his tactical decisions have worked.
That said, there are things coaches need to be accountable for. Marking assignments on corner kicks are something that should be set before players take the field. Porter may not have instructed Villafana to mark Gordon specifically, but the team should’ve been prepared for Gordon inevitably entering the game. The majority of the mistakes made are ones you’d expect professionals not to make, and some of that has to be coached as well. The better prepared a team is for a match and the better coached they are, the more focused they’ll be and the fewer mistakes they’ll make.
On the other end of the pitch, attempting 47 crosses against Vancouver’s center-backs seems less than brilliant. Of those 47, only six were completed and two of those were corner kicks. twenty of those were attempted in the first half and only one was completed. Something about the definition of insanity…
Players
When a handful of individual errors are the primary reason a team is sitting in last place a lot of the blame has to go on those players making the mistakes. Sure, Liam Ridgewell and Nat Borchers were fantastic for 89 minutes against Vancouver, and have been for almost the whole season, but they made a mistake that cost Portland a point. Same goes for every other mistake. Those simply have to be corrected and the players have to do a better job of staying focused for the entire 90 minutes (plus stoppage time).
Parting words of encouragement:
The Timbers have looked good most of the time. They dominated against Real Salt Lake. They were a single man-marking mistake on a corner away from beating the Galaxy. They were a single mistake away from picking up a valuable point on the road against a rival who’s been in great form. If someone were to watch all four games and see none of the goals by either team they’d probably think the Timbers were off to a great start. That’s encouraging because it says a lot about what this team can be. That said, they need to figure it out sooner rather than later or 2015 is going to end just like 2014.
