Fantasy Profile: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

Welcome back to the 2015 Last Word on Fantasy Baseball Guide.  Over the next several months we will be releasing player profiles, projections, position rankings, and a number of other articles that will help you dominate your fantasy league this season.  Whether you play rotisserie or head-to-head; whether you have a standard draft, a snake or an auction league, and whether its keeper league or a one-year deal; we have all the fantasy information you need.

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Fantasy Profile: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

LWOS Ranking 17, Captain’s Value: $5.30

When it comes to Pedro Alvarez, there are two main statistics to keep in mind: HR/FB ratio, and K%.

HR/FB is the ratio of home runs hit for every fly ball. The higher this total is the better, but for context, 15-20% is considered really good. For Alvarez, that number the last three seasons has been 25%, 26%, and 16%. Even more astonishing, over 52% of fly balls hit to his pull side have gone for home runs. For those following along at home, that’s pretty good.

On the other hand, his K%, or the amount of times a hitter strikes out, has tipped 30% three out of the last four years. Those numbers put him safely beyond the “awful” description assigned to the worst standard of performance in the category.

Interestingly enough, Alvarez saw a career best K% last year but a career worst HR/FB ratio. So, what does this mean? Does it mean that Alvarez is taking a bit off his swing? Did he have an injury last year that encumbered his approach?

According to the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the answer is that Alvarez was adopting the team philosophy of utilizing all fields. This is likely to continue in 2015. Additionally, he will likely platoon at first and sit against lefties, making it even more difficult to reach those gaping power numbers.

I’ll be passing on Alvarez in my leagues this year, as he is a far too devastating anchor in a few categories (K’s, AVG) to be balanced by what will likely be subdued power totals.

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