Over the past few seasons, the Cincinnati Reds have been a team on the rise with the potential to be something special. In fact, not long ago they seemed to be primed for a deep postseason run. They had a solid roster, with the MVP first baseman Joey Votto and the Gold Glove-winning Brandon Phillips leading the way. On top of that, they had the slugger Jay Bruce, a Cy Young contender in Johnny Cueto, and arguably the best closer in the National League with Aroldis Chapman. Really all Cincinnati needed was just one big move to be made at some point. With all the pieces already in Cincinnati, all that was needed was one big-name addition to solidify a rising team.
Unfortunately for Cincinnati, the move was never made; and now that the dust has settled on offseason winter meetings the window of opportunity has closed.
The 2015 Cincinnati Reds: Destined for Failure
It isn’t like the Reds didn’t have anything to work with in the winter meetings; Chapman was rumored to be on the move, and Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon were both shipped off. It also isn’t as if there were no big-name outfielders to go after. Yoenis Cespedes, Matt Kemp, and Justin Upton were all moved this offseason, and the fact that Cincinnati didn’t try to get a single one of them is head-scratching to say the least.
The worst part of this for the Reds is that they could use a star now more than ever because their current players are fading out. Johnny Cueto is still performing well of course, but the guys behind him aren’t up to par anymore. Joey Votto, the guy that was expected to be the centerpiece of the franchise for the foreseeable future, has suffered through injuries in two of the past three seasons, and played just 62 games in 2014. Votto is a well-rounded player, but may be too injury-prone to have any impact for the Reds.
While Votto has suffered injuries keeping him off of first base, the man next to him at second base has simply lost a step (or maybe two or three). Brandon Phillips has always been one of the most exciting players to watch in the entire league, but that is starting to change. BP is not what he used to be. He isn’t as fast or athletic as he was in his prime and it’s shown by the fact that in 2014 he stole just 2 bases all season. That measly total is the lowest number of steals Phillips has ever had since joining the Reds in 2006. Phillips was an immaculate athlete in his prime, but unfortunately he is not in his prime anymore, and it has shown in his performances on the field.
While Votto and Phillips are dealing with their own issues, so is the right-fielder Jay Bruce. The biggest issue with Jay is simply that he is not a threat at the plate anymore. Bruce is supposed to be the biggest power threat on the ball club, and yet last season he hit just 18 long balls all year and had a rather mediocre .217 batting average. To make it worse, Bruce had a Wins Above Replacement (WAR) of -1.1 in 2014. Sure, sabermetrics can be confusing, but it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to realize that your “power threat” starting right fielder should not have a negative WAR.
As for the last star player on the list, Aroldis Chapman certainly is not a bad closer. Anyone who can throw fireballs over 100 MPH is going to be tough to beat, but the only problem is the Reds didn’t have enough save opportunities for Chapman to make an impact in 2014. The Cuban Missile’s number of appearances went from 68 in 2013 to just 54 in 2014. A closer can only be good if his team is winning, and Chapman’s team certainly was not winning enough.
There’s no point in sugarcoating this; the Cincinnati Reds are going to be dreadful in 2015. Even the “star players” of the franchise are under-performing, and the remaining players on the roster certainly do not have what it takes to contend in 2015. Without the front office making any substantial moves (aside from dumping two solid pitchers), the 2015 Reds do not stand a chance in an improving NL Central.
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