If the College Football Playoff has done anything right now, it has increased the drama and frustration for those teams on the cusp of number four. The lower you get in the rankings the closer teams are bunched, so it makes a lot of sense that more teams have a claim to that fourth playoff spot than used to have for the second BCS spot.
But that’s academic and interesting to discuss during the season. Now, though, it’s crunch time. Alabama, Oregon, and Florida State are in. The committee could punish Florida State for yet another close one, but there is no way they leave an undefeated power conference team out of the playoff. It just won’t happen.
So now for that last CFP spot there are three teams competing. Ohio State, Baylor, and TCU are all very much alive. Ohio State just thrashed Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game while TCU and Baylor split the Big XII title. Baylor just picked up their second-best win of the season by beating Kansas State and TCU kept themselves relevant by blowing out hapless Iowa State.
When it comes to resume, all three are about equal. Their respective strengths of schedule range from the 30s to 60s by most metrics. Ohio State’s will probably be slightly ahead by getting this extra game against Wisconsin, but the difference will be negligible.
So who have these teams beat? Baylor has the best win of the group with their victory over TCU two months ago. Ohio State’s best victory is not far behind with a win over seventh-ranked Michigan State. TCU’s is over Kansas State, who will probably be at the edge of the Top 15 when tomorrow’s rankings come out.
In terms of overall wins, Ohio State has the most with victories over three Top 25 teams, all in the last month. They have beaten Michigan State, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. And even though Minnesota may not be ranked by the CFP committee, they are certainly right on the edge and it is still a quality victory. TCU also has three wins over Top 25 teams (even if Oklahoma drops out, they are still on the fringe just like Minnesota) but the average ranking of those teams is quite a bit lower. Baylor’s victories are quite similar to Ohio State’s on average. TCU has had the better ranking by the committee so far, but really, Baylor’s and Ohio State’s are more similar to each other and slightly better.
This brings us to the other important question though: Who have these teams lost to? Ohio State has the worst loss of the bunch, a 14-point defeat at home to Virginia Tech who would finish the season 6-6. Baylor’s is not much better, losing on the road (also by two touchdowns) to 7-5 West Virginia. TCU’s loss is by far the best (by three on the road to Baylor) but their wins lag behind Baylor’s and Ohio State’s.
Everyone has a knock against them in this group. Ohio State has that awful loss. Baylor has a bad loss and an awful nonconference schedule. TCU just doesn’t have the wins to match up with Ohio State and Baylor. Maybe Ohio State’s schedule gets a slight boost when the committee realizes that they have played ten bowl teams while TCU has only played seven and Baylor a mere six (that’s half the schedule against non-bowl teams). Put another way, Ohio State’s opponents went 84-60 on the season (.583) while TCU’s and Baylor’s both went 61-70 (.466). That’s a pretty significant difference.
But we really have no idea which of these three will be chosen. We just know that there will be a lot of nerves in Waco, Dallas Fort-Worth, and Columbus until the Selection Show on Sunday.
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