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What the CFP Selection Committee Taught Us: Final Rankings

We finally have the first College Football Playoff bracket set. A lot of people are angry, some are surprised, but none can be shocked. The CFP selection committee didn’t throw anything out of the blue. There were three teams in play for that final spot and those teams ended up ranked fourth through sixth.

For the first time this season, Jeff Long actually made a lot of sense with his talking points after the rankings were released. He pointed out that, last week, the teams ranked between three and six were very close and that allowed a lot of fluidity in the rankings. TCU didn’t fall to sixth so much as drop from 3a. And, to be fair, they played one of the worst teams in FBS while Baylor, Florida State, and Ohio State all played teams ranked in the Top 12.

CFP Selection Committee: Final Rankings

Now, though, let’s discuss the precedents that this committee showed us. First of all, they showed that being undefeated isn’t everything. Yes, Florida State won every game and their strength of schedule wasn’t awful. But they weren’t convincing enough in those wins and that let other teams jump them. That was true throughout the season and it remained true on the final ballot.

There was one major change from earlier ballots to this one, though. Now when the resumes were much closer, Baylor jumped TCU. Before Baylor had the win over Kansas State, TCU’s resume was much better. With TCU’s strength of schedule numbers falling this week (and their best win taking a hit) and Baylor’s rising, the resumes were close enough for head-to-head to come into play. So now we know that head-to-head does matter, though it is not the be-all-end-all that some would like.

Another important aspect here is that the committee is showing they are not buying into poll mentality. A lot of people thought releasing weekly rankings was a mistake because it would put the committee into positions that could be unpopular if they truly start with a fresh slate each week. Well, they started with a fresh slate and the rankings are very unpopular when people are looking at TCU. So, on some levels, the committee hurt themselves by releasing weekly rankings. On another, they are getting fans used to re-thinking preconceived notions every week, which is a very good thing. TCU may have blown out hapless Iowa State, but three teams jumped them because all three of those beat top opponents. That is an important lesson for college football fans to learn.

Another message sent was nonconference schedules. Baylor played the worst nonconference schedule in the country and, at the end of the day, it hurt them. The resume was enough to jump TCU, but only playing six bowl teams over the course of the season kept them out of the all-important fourth spot.

The real question is why, exactly, Ohio State jumped TCU. Is it because the Big XII didn’t have a conference championship game? It certainly helped that the Buckeyes got an extra Top 15 opponent at the end of the season. But a conference championship game can be a double-edged sword and the committee did acknowledge that they’re aware Big XII (and Pac 12) teams play nine conference games.

Did the committee get this right? That will always be debatable. Are they in any way objectively wrong here? No. They showed an importance of nonconference schedules and conference championships. They showed that, when push will come to shove, a head-to-head victory on the field will matter. We know that giving weekly rankings has made people very mad at the committee but maybe, just maybe, it will help college football fans get over the poll mentality that we have become accustomed to over the past eight decades.

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