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LWOS Bowl Projections (after Week 13)

13 weeks of college football action are in the books and less than two weeks remain before the bowls in general and the all-important College Football Playoff in particular announce the much anticipated match ups. Teams continue to position themselves within their own conferences and also within the broader national championship picture. As Yesh discussed in his CFP Bubble Watch piece for this week, roughly a dozen teams can still cling onto realistic chances of finishing as the last four standing if they get help in varying forms, while three (Alabama, Florida State and Oregon) essentially control their own destinies.

If we are to analyze the broader bowl eligibility race across the entire FBS spectrum, we see that 73 teams have currently won six or more games and have thus qualified to be selected. Two of those teams, Georgia Southern and Appalachian State out of the Sun Belt Conference, are in a transitional period associated with moving up from FCS in recent years and cannot be picked. That leaves 71 bowl-eligible teams with 76 slots having to be filled. Keep in mind those two aforementioned Sun Belt teams can be picked in the event there aren’t enough 6-6 or better teams.

There are two games this coming weekend involving teams who are both 5-6 (Illinois at Northwestern, Virginia at Virginia Tech), meaning at least two more teams will clinch bowl bids. Tennessee plays Vanderbilt and the Vols will look to get their sixth win of the season over a Commodores team that is winless in SEC play. Both Ohio and Akron out of the MAC need one more victory to get to six and have very winnable games against Miami (OH) and Kent State respectively who are a combined 3-18 on the year.

So after all that, it appears as if all bowl slots will be filled without any of the contingencies needing to be looked into. The worst case scenario would be a bowl having to invite a 5-7 team with the highest Academic Progress Rate score. And you thought the “student” part of the term “student-athlete” was losing its relevance in today’s win-at-all-costs landscape.

Without further ado, have a look at where we think teams will be heading for the postseason as we head into Thanksgiving weekend. John’s projections will be listed first, followed by Yesh’s.

LWOS Bowl Projections (after Week 13)

NATIONAL SEMIFINALS

Rose Bowl – Pasadena, CA: January 1, 2015, 5 pm

(1) Oregon vs. (4) Mississippi State

(2) Oregon vs. (3) Florida State

Sugar Bowl – New Orleans, LA: January 1, 2015, 8:30 pm 

(2) Florida State vs. (3) Alabama

(1) Alabama vs. (4) TCU

College Football Championship Game – Arlington, TX: January 12, 2015, 8:30 pm

Rose Bowl Winner vs. Sugar Bowl Winner

OTHER NEW YEAR’S SIX BOWLS

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl – Atlanta, GA: December 31, 2014, 1 pm

Georgia vs. Michigan State

Georgia vs. Boise State

Vizio Fiesta Bowl – Glendale, AZ: December 31, 2014, 5 pm 

Boise State vs. Baylor

UCLA vs. Kansas State

Capital One Orange Bowl – Miami Gardens, FL: December 31, 2014, 8:30 pm

Ohio State vs. Georgia Tech

Mississippi State vs. Georgia Tech

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic – Arlington, TX: January 1, 2014, 1 pm

TCU vs. UCLA

Baylor vs. Ohio State

THE REST OF THE BOWLS

December 20, 2014

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl – New Orleans, LA – 11 am

Louisiana-Lafayette vs. UAB

Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Fresno State

Gildan New Mexico Bowl – Albuquerque, NM – 2:20 pm

San Diego State vs. UTEP

Nevada vs. Western Kentucky

Royal Purple Las Vegas Bowl – Las Vegas, NV – 3:30 pm, ABC

Colorado State vs. Stanford

Colorado State vs. Stanford

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl – Boise, ID – 5:45 pm

Nevada vs. Bowling Green

Central Michigan vs. San Diego State

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl – Montgomery, AL – 9:15 pm

Central Michigan vs. Arkansas State

Western Michigan vs. South Alabama

December 22, 2014

Miami Beach Bowl – Miami, FL – 2 pm

Temple vs. BYU

Cincinnati vs. BYU

December 23, 2014

Boca Raton Bowl – Boca Raton, FL – 6 pm

Western Kentucky vs. Western Michigan

Rice vs. Toledo

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl – San Diego, CA – 9:30 pm

Navy vs. Utah State

Navy vs. Utah State

December 24, 2014

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl – Nassau, Bahamas – noon

Marshall vs. Toledo

Louisiana Tech vs. Bowling Green

Hawai’i Bowl – Honolulu, HI – 8 pm

Air Force vs. Louisiana Tech

Air Force vs. Marshall

December 26, 2014

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl – Dallas, TX – 1 pm

Rutgers vs. Rice

Penn State vs. UTEP

Quick Lane Bowl – Detroit, MI – 4:30 pm

N.C. State vs. Maryland

Virginia Tech vs. Rutgers

Bitcoin St. Petersburg Bowl – St. Petersburg, FL – 8 pm

UCF vs. South Alabama

UCF vs. North Carolina

December 27, 2014

Military Bowl presented by Northrop Grumman – Annapolis, MD – 1 pm

Memphis vs. Virginia Tech

Memphis vs. Miami (FL)

Hyundai Sun Bowl – El Paso, TX – 2 pm, CBS

Miami (FL) vs. Utah

Duke vs. Utah

Duck Commander Independence Bowl – Shreveport, LA – 4 pm, ESPN2

Boston College vs. Tennessee

NC State vs. Tennessee

New Era Pinstripe Bowl – The Bronx, NY – 4:30 pm

Notre Dame vs. Penn State

Boston College vs. Nebraska

National University Holiday Bowl – San Diego, CA – 8 pm

Nebraska vs. USC

Minnesota vs. Arizona

December 29, 2014

Autozone Liberty Bowl – Memphis, TN – 2 pm

West Virginia vs. Arkansas

Houston vs. Arkansas

Russell Athletic Bowl – Orlando, FL – 5:30 pm

Louisville vs. Texas

Clemson vs. Texas

AdvoCare Texas Bowl – Houston, TX – 9 pm

Texas A&M vs. Kansas State

Texas A&M vs. West Virginia

December 30, 2014

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl – Nashville, TN – 3 pm

North Carolina vs. Missouri

Louisville vs. Missouri

Belk Bowl – Charlotte, NC – 6:45 pm

Duke vs. Florida

Notre Dame vs. Ole Miss

Foster Farms San Francisco Bowl – Santa Clara, CA – 10 pm

Iowa vs. Arizona

Maryland vs. USC

January 1, 2015

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl – Orlando, FL – 1 pm, ABC

Clemson vs. Auburn

Wisconsin vs. Auburn

Outback Bowl – Tampa, FL – 1 pm, ESPN2

Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss

Michigan State vs. LSU

January 2, 2015

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl – Fort Worth, TX – noon

Houston vs. Northwestern

Ohio vs. Northwestern

TaxSlayer Bowl – Jacksonville, FL – 3:20 pm

Minnesota vs. LSU

Iowa vs. Florida

Valero Alamo Bowl – San Antonio, TX – 6:45 pm

Oklahoma vs. Arizona State

Oklahoma vs. Arizona State

Cactus Bowl – Tempe, AZ – 10:15 pm

Fresno State vs. Washington

Temple vs. Washington

January 3, 2015

Birmingham Bowl – Birmingham, AL – 1 pm, ESPN2

Cincinnati vs. South Carolina

Middle Tennessee State vs. South Carolina

January 4, 2015

GoDaddy Bowl – Mobile, AL – 9 pm

Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State

Northern Illinois vs. Arkansas State

Bowl eligible teams projected to not get invited:

John – Ohio, Akron, Texas State

Yesh- Akron, Texas State, UAB

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