This week, the College Football Playoff Committee updated its rankings, giving us an indication of how they will evaluate their poll after a week of action. Ole Miss dropped out of the Top 10, while Arizona State supplanted them after beating Utah in overtime. Oregon moved into the top four, with Alabama right on their heels at five.
Mississippi State and Florida State have survived thus far, and lead the way at 8-0 apiece. Tennessee-Martin and Virginia won’t jeopardize those records this weekend. The Bulldogs and Seminoles should be 9-0 headed into the home stretch of this first playoff push.
Right behind those top two are a pack of one-loss teams looking to join them in the CFP. While some will make it out alive this weekend, others will wave goodbye to those chances with a second loss. Three Top 25 match ups feature 7-1 teams battling to stay afloat in the playoff hunt.
Three more games featuring one-loss hopefuls on the road against ranked two-loss teams could result in upsets that shake up the Top 10 even further.
Knockout Games
(10) Notre Dame at (9) Arizona State, 3:30 PM ET, Favorite: ASU -2.5
Arizona State’s brand new Top 10 ranking will be on the line as they welcome the Irish. The Sun Devils are on a collision course with the Pac-12 North’s Oregon in their championship game, but folks in Tempe have to be thinking bigger picture now. With guaranteed ruckus in front of both this week in the poll, Notre Dame and ASU can move up with a win and jump a huge hurdle in the CFP track meet.
Notre Dame has faced a good schedule up to now, and will face their third ranked foe this season. The Irish’s once stout defense has softened in the past few weeks, so if they’re going to go into the desert and pull off the upset, they’ll need their first half form to stop the Devils.
(7) Kansas State at (6) TCU, 7:30 PM ET, Favorite: TCU -6
TCU just scores. And scores, and scores. After running out of fireworks against Texas Tech, the Horned Frogs look to take out one more ranked team before finishing out the season with three straight unranked foes. The lack of a title game could hurt TCU, with no chance to get that extra win to impress the committee. Or perhaps, no title game can give the Frogs a chance to sit back while other teams are forced to play that extra game and potentially lose.
Kansas State can lay claim to one of the best losses in the country right now. The Wildcats played an extremely good defensive game against the Auburn Tigers and held them to 20 points, but still lost. They’ve climbed into the Top 10 of the CFP Poll, and taking out TCU would vault them into the driver’s seat in the Big 12. Unlike TCU, the Wildcats finish the year with two ranked teams. K-State goes to West Virginia and Baylor to end the season. If the Wildcats win out, they’ll be hard to keep out of the playoff at 11-1 with four road wins against Top 25 teams.
(14) Ohio State at (8) Michigan State, 8 PM ET, Favorite: MSU -3.5
After OSU and MSU suffered potentially devastating losses on September 6, both have quietly snuck back up the rankings. While the SEC West knocks each other out, Sparty and the Buckeyes will have the same chance this weekend. These new divisional rivals will face each other Saturday night in a rematch of the B1G Championship Game from last year in which the Spartans clinched a Rose Bowl berth.
The B1G has faced perception problems all season since both these teams lost those early games. The conference has been written off as having no shot to reach the Playoff. Oregon having a win over Michigan State puts the Ducks in control from that standpoint, but if the Ducks fall, the winner of this Top 15 game will be in position to move in closer to that Playoff spot.
Big Time 2-Loss Games
(12) Baylor at (15) Oklahoma, 12 PM ET, Favorite: OK -5.5
Oklahoma is the only home favorite as a two-loss team. The Sooners will try to even things up in the conference standings against a Bears team that got its groove back against Kansas after getting whipped in Morgantown. Both teams suffer from the above-mentioned lack of a title game, so a Baylor win is imperative to keep them in that elite one-loss group. Oklahoma can play spoiler since they already have a two-loss hole to dig out of. The round robin play in the Big 12 gives a “true champion” but leaves that last weekend with a little less luster.
(5) Alabama at (16) LSU, 8 PM ET, Favorite: Bama -6.5
These two don’t need a ranking in front of their name to get up for this game. “Get up it’s GameDay” isn’t just a slogan, it’s a way of life in Tuscaloosa and Baton Rouge. LSU will forget their two losses if they can hang a second L on the Tide’s record. Everyone has already forgotten Bama’s loss to Ole Miss, and their close call to Arkansas. Once written off as merely a New Year’s Six Bowl type of team, the Tide are back in the hunt for the playoff.
(4) Oregon at (17) Utah, 10 PM ET, Favorite: Oregon -8
Oregon heads into Salt Lake City with Pac-12 North Division pride on the line. The South has dominated the North head-to-head this season, and has four teams ranked in this week’s CFP Poll vs. the lone North representative: the Ducks. Oregon’s blemish came against South member Arizona. Oregon misses South leader ASU, but these two are on track to meet at Levi’s Stadium in December at the Pac-12 Championship Game. Oregon entered the top four in the CFP Poll this week, and is on track to reach the semifinals if they can win out.
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