Take a cue from the student section in the Big House, and don’t watch the first quarter of Saturday night’s contest between the Michigan Wolverines and the Penn State Nittany Lions (although reports are that the walk-out was called off). In fact, don’t watch it at all, because if you want to see football at its finest, you had best look elsewhere. Unless you’re a Nittany Lions fan, or a masochistic Michigan fan, don’t even bother to set your DVR for this impending bloodbath.
Michigan-Penn State
In the case of Michigan, this will possibly be the worst team they have fielded since 2008, the team which endured a 3-9 season, the worst in the program’s history in terms of losses, although this squad could give that record a run for it’s money with just a 2-4 record and an even tougher slate ahead. In Penn State’s case, this is a team that holds a misleading 4-1 record, coming off a bad loss to a Jekyll and Hyde Northwestern team. Penn State only holds a combined five-point lead over the two Power 5 teams it has pulled out victories against.
Nevertheless, this has more to do with how bad Michigan stacks up against an above average Penn State team. Michigan is now firmly stuck with Devin Gardner at quarterback, who in four games against Power 5 competition has yet to throw a touchdown, while tossing seven passes into the opposition’s hands. On top of that, Michigan’s leading rusher Derrick Green is now out for the season after suffering a broken clavicle in Saturday’s loss against Rutgers.
While I wrote over the summer that Green seemed unlikely to take much a step forward this season, he was certainly showing signs of progress and spurts of production, as he tallied 461 yards and three scores through six games. Green’s backup, De’Veon Smith, has actually shown better talent this season, particularly as he is a far more fluid runner than the bulky Green, without sacrificing much of a power element. Smith has rushed for 282 yards and 4 touchdowns on nearly half the carries as Green, but will need to prove he can sustain the extra carries he will receive going forward.
While the defense has been the better of the two units for this Michigan team, don’t expect them to hold Christian Hackenberg and the Penn State offense in check. Michigan has forced a total of two turnovers all season long, only one off for worst in the FBS ahead of Louisiana-Lafayette (it’s no wonder the Wolverines are tied with Eastern Michigan for the worst turnover margin in FBS, as well). While all of Michigan’s other defensive numbers either look very good, or are at least average, consider the fact that the offense is so anemic, most offenses haven’t had the need to score against Michigan to beat them (their defense and special teams have been doing it for them). Michigan’s passing efficiency defense ranks in the bottom third of the FBS; and that’s mostly against the likes of Kameron Bryant, Andrew Hendrix, Travis Wilson, Mitch Leidner, and Gary Nova.
If Michigan has an advantage Saturday night, it’s in the defensive line, which should look fairly good facing off against an inexperienced Penn State front which has struggled in games past. However, Michigan’s secondary, lead by Blake Countess and Raymon Taylor, has been woefully soft and inefficient this season. Michigan’s defensive backs have been playing further and further off the line of scrimmage as the season has worn on, conceding short passes and allowing receivers to get a free release off the line. This will only make things easier for Hackenberg to get the ball out before the rush comes and move the sticks.
To make a tired point, Penn State has the easy edge in Saturday night’s game against Michigan. It’s defense has a decided advantage against a dilapidated Michigan offense, and the Nittany Lions passing game should be able to tee off on Michigan’s soft coverage packages. So if you’re into watching competitive football, consider watching Florida International against Texas-San Antonio instead.
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