In what many are praying and hoping is just a cruel, sick joke, the University of Georgia is reporting that Heisman frontrunner and star tailback Todd Gurley has been indefinitely suspended from the team as a result of an ongoing investigation into potential NCAA rules violations. Regardless of what the situation is (early reports say the suspension is for possibly accepting extra benefits for his likeness with memorabilia brokers), this could spell absolute disaster for a Georgia football team that had serious hopes of making a run at an SEC Championship.
Georgia is about to play it’s biggest game of the year so far against a Missouri squad that is one win away from putting a stranglehold on the SEC East. They follow that up with a daunting trip to Arkansas against a very talented offense heading into a bye week. Todd Gurley would have more than likely been the leader of a potent Georgia offense that helped the Dawgs escape both of these tough road games with a victory. Can Nick Chubb and Brendan Douglas carry the rock as effectively? That will be the biggest question around the nation as the Georgia-Missouri game just got a whole lot more interesting.
Let’s look at what Georgia is losing if Gurley is truly out for an extended period of time. To date, he has 109 total touches on the year (94 carries, 11 receptions, 3 kick returns and 1 pass), which averages out to 21.8 touches per game. He has nine total touchdowns and 1,023 all-purpose yards, which is an average of 1.8 touchdowns per game and 204.6 yards per game.
I urge you to look at those numbers twice. Maybe three times. You know what – go ahead an read it four times. Georgia is losing a ridiculous chunk of its offense. The Dawgs have a total of 2,295 yards of offense this season. Todd Gurley accounts for 876 yards of that total, which is 38 percent of Georgia’s total offensive output…by one player!
Nick Chubb is nothing to sneeze at. He has 224 rushing yards and two touchdowns on just 31 carries – an average of 7.2 yards per carry – but if Georgia was going to make a championship run, they would’ve done it behind number 3.
So let’s all assume that Gurley is out for the time being – what does that mean for UGA this week against Missouri? Can Georgia beat Missouri without Todd Gurley? The short answer is yes. To win, Georgia and Mike Bobo need to develop a more balanced offensive scheme, with some power running with Chubb and Douglas (both Sony Michel and Keith Marshall are still injured) to keep the blitzing Missouri defense honest, along with some effective passes by Hutson Mason and some strong blocking in the short screen game. Georgia’s offensive line needs to be ready to protect Mason (Missouri has 18 sacks this season – an average of 3.6 per game) AND open up some holes in the running game.
The Dawgs also need to win the turnover battle and time of possession. The longer Georgia’s suspect secondary can stay off the field, the better. It is worth noting, however, that Georgia’s defense has given up just 21.6 points per game, while Missouri is currently giving up 20.6. Something’s got to give this week, as both offenses average well over those numbers (45.0 for Georgia and 34.6 for Missouri).
On the turnover front, Missouri’s defense has long prided itself on causing turnovers, currently holding a +5 turnover margin. Georgia has done a decent job so far protecting the ball this season, so it’ll all come down to reducing offensive miscues for the Bulldogs.
Lastly, if Georgia can get pressure on Maty Mauk and rattle his cage a couple times early, the pressure should be taken off the secondary. That will be no easy task against a Missouri Tigers offensive line that has only allowed seven sacks all season.
Regardless of the fact that Georgia will likely be without Todd Gurley, this game will be a hard fought, close battle in Columbia, MO that will likely come down to the fourth quarter. If that’s the case, Missouri certainly has the edge, as the Tigers have outscored their opponents 58-17 in the final 15 minutes of the game so far this year.
This week, look for Georgia to break that trend and get out of Columbia with a close 31-27 win, ultimately taking over the game on the ground, sans Gurley. It’s important for Georgia fans to remember: this team is not down for the count yet, but it’s going to take a total team effort every game to overcome the loss of one of the best players in school history.
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