As the analysis of Week 2 of college football goes on, we will continually hear about how this was a bad week for the Big Ten Conference. And it was. Three Big Ten teams had marquee games and all three lost, Michigan embarrassingly so. Ohio State’s and Michigan State’s losses were certainly not good, but they were nowhere near as bad as Michigan’s.
It was more than just that, though. Purdue was demolished by Central Michigan, a team that could finish towards the bottom of the MAC. Northwestern lost to Northern Illinois, which is not as bad as it sounds. Northwestern should finish towards the bottom of the Big Ten while Northern Illinois is a top mid-major who could definitely earn the Group of Five’s (the non-power conferences) automatic major bowl slot. Nebraska and Iowa, two potential dark horses in the conference, also struggled with bad competition.
Week 2 CFP Implications: Bad Week for the Big Ten
However, as will be stressed in this column, conferences don’t play football games. The Big Ten didn’t play a single game this weekend. It is a football conference that happened to have a large number of teams disappoint on the same day. But the narrative of a “bad week for the conference” shouldn’t affect the overall potential CFP status of all of the individual teams. A win is a win, and a disappointing win won’t really be held against Iowa or Nebraska. Wisconsin is still in the solid position they were after last week.
Yes, Michigan State lost a tremendous opportunity to pick up one of the biggest potential non-conference wins of the season. But there is nothing bad about that loss and Michigan State should still be solid for the CFP if they win out. The committee won’t punish Michigan State for playing a top 5 opponent on the road and with most-likely three games against ranked opponents in-conference, Michigan State should be one of the first 1-loss teams in line for a spot in the CFP if they win out.
Ohio State’s season, on the other hand, got a lot tougher. They were not really expected to be a top 4 team after Braxton Miller went down, but this makes their path very difficult. Their only major games remaining are at Michigan State and in the Big Ten Championship Game (if they get there). Navy could end up being a ranked win by season’s end and Virginia Tech probably won’t be a bad loss, but even a 12-1 Ohio State will probably need help in the form of other contenders losing as the season goes on.
Any undefeated Big Ten team is still in the position they started the season in, along with every other power-conference team. And, as mentioned above, Wisconsin is in a very similar position to Michigan State. They will not be punished for a close road loss to Michigan State and have remaining big games against Nebraska and the Big Ten CCG (and potentially Iowa if they can negotiate an easy schedule until November).
In other national news to be aware of with CFP implications, keep an eye on the Pac 12. Barring a collapse by the top teams, there will be at least one Pac 12 team in the CFP. UCLA looks to have been greatly overrated to start the season, but it really doesn’t matter. All Pac 12 teams will have higher strengths of schedule because of the nine-game conference schedule, and the trio of Oregon, USC, and Stanford are all playing at least one ranked team out of conference and all have a chance to only lose to each other. If there’s a conference that has a chance of getting two teams into the CFP (and it’s way too early in the season to actually discuss it), right now it looks like the Pac 12.
Speaking of that Pac-12 trio, if there’s one team that can ruin their seasons it’s the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Notre Dame is a very talented football team this year and could very well end up with the toughest schedule in the country. It is quite possible that seven of their final eight games will be against ranked teams, including three potential top 10 teams.
We will discuss Notre Dame later in the season if they remain relevant, but Notre Dame will be the team that can really test the committee’s statement that SOS will be a foremost factor in deciding who gets in. Notre Dame could go 10-2 and have a significantly higher SOS than any other contender when the year comes to an end. They could have four (or more) top 25 wins with two top 5 losses. Everyone has assumed since the beginning that the spots in the CFP will be split up between conferences, but Notre Dame is the team that can shake that assumption for everyone.
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