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Puck Drop Preview: 2014-15 Florida Panthers

Welcome to Puck Drop Preview 2014-15, where our hockey department gives you a detailed look at each team from around the NHL leading to the start of this hockey season andPuck Drop Preview offers our insight and analysis. Makes sure to stick around until the end of the series, where we’ll offer our full predictions for the standings in each division, and eventually our collective LWOS 2014-15 Stanley Cup pick. You can check out all our articles on our Puck Drop Page.  Today is the Florida Panthers.

Last Season:

Once again, the Panthers finished near the bottom of the barrel in the Eastern Conference and the league, finishing 15th and 29 overall respectively, ranking ahead of only the pitiful Buffalo Sabres in both cases. If the 2013 season proved that the Panthers’ division win in 2011-12 was just a fluke, 2013-14 only re-established that. The Panthers disaster of a season could be pinned on a few things. Not only did they have the second worst offense (2.29 GPG), but they also had the second worst defense (3.20 GAA), along with a powerplay and penalty kill that finished dead last in their respective categories. It was truly an epic failure of a campaign.

There was also no shortage of individual disappointments either. Tomas Fleischmann, one of the Panthers’ top forwards, only managed to rack up a mere 22 points, which is not even close to acceptable. The 2012-13 Calder Trophy winner, Jonathan Huberdeau, got hit hard by the sophomore slump, scoring only nine goals and 28 points, while veteran Tomas Kopecky, who is going into a contract year, scored 12 points in 49 games.

That said, it wasn’t all bad. Nick Bjugstad had a solid rookie season, scoring 38 points in 76 games (which was also the highest point total among Panthers), Aleksander Barkov showed serious potential before getting injured halfway through the season, and they were also able to re-acquire their franchise leader in wins, goaltender Roberto Luongo from the Vancouver Canucks. Luongo provided stability in goal for the Panthers during the final stretch of the season, something they had been sorely lacking since Jose Theodore’s out-of-nowhere solid play in 2012.

Between the question marks in goal, unreliable scoring from veterans, and some unfortunate injuries to key players, it seemed as if nothing went right for the Cats from Florida. But don’t worry Panthers fans, things are looking up.

Offense:

As previously mentioned, Huberdeau, Fleischmann, and Kopecky all need to be better, especially in the case of Huberdeau. Being in a contract year will help motivate both Fleischmann and Kopecky to up their offensive totals.

If healthy, Aleksander Barkov and Nick Bjugstad will form a solid one-two punch up the middle, with the recently signed Dave Bolland and rookie Vincent Trochek holding down the bottom two lines. Fellow free agent acquisition Jussi Jokinen will be heavily relied on in a top-six capacity along with Brad Boyes, who appears to be a good fit in Florida after being signed to a PTO last off-season, as well as veteran Scottie Upshall.

Shawn Thornton, despite being overpaid, will bring some leadership and grit to a young Panthers squad and playoff beast Sean Bergenheim will supply some depth scoring. Youngsters Brandon Pirri, Vincent Trocheck, and Jimmy Hayes will also be depended upon to provide secondary scoring for the team.

Brian Campbell leads the way from the back end with Dmitry Kulikov also capable of flirting with the 10-goal mark. First overall pick Aaron Ekblad is another powerplay scoring option with his heavy shot. The blue line will need to be more involved if the Panthers want to be a playoff team in 2015.

Defense:

One of biggest issues with young forwards is usually their defensive abilities. While Barkov and Bjugstad certainly have the upside to be effective two-way centers in the NHL, they can’t be relied on to run the penalty kill or shut down top forwards. This is where players such as Kopecky and Bolland need to step up, particularly in areas where the young guns can’t.

The Panthers need significant improvements from Erik Gudbranson next season if they want to do some damage. He has the potential, and now is the time to reach it. Enough hope, it’s time for results when it comes to Gudbranson. Look at a guy like Kulikov. He made strides last season, averaging just under 22 minutes per game, so it looks like he’s developing into a nice defenseman. Gudbranson needs a season like that to prove himself.

Two-time Stanley Cup champion Willie Mitchell, signed to a 2-year deal worth $8.5 million this offseason, will certainly help the penalty kill and the defense in general, while also mentoring the younger players on the roster, especially Aaron Ekblad. Ekblad will help right away with his size and shot, and while he may need to work on his positioning at first, I have full confidence that he will make a positive impact right from the get-go.

Losing Tom Gilbert to the Montreal Canadiens will hurt at first, but if one of Alex Petrovic, Dylan Olsen, or Colby Robak can step up their game, they’ll be just fine.

Projected Lines (BOLD indicates new arrival)

Jonathan Huberdeau – Aleksander Barkov – Scottie Upshall
Jussi Jokinen – Nick Bjugstad – Brad Boyes
Tomas Fleischmann – Dave Bolland – Tomas Kopecky
Sean Bergenheim – Vincent Trocheck – Shawn Thornton
Jimmy Hayes

Brian Campbell – Willie Mitchell
Erik Gudbranson – Dmitry Kulikov
Aaron Ekblad – Colby Robak
Alex Petrovic-Dylan Olsen

Roberto Luongo
Al Montoya
Dan Ellis

5 Players to Watch

Roberto Luongo: How will Luongo do in a full season with the Panthers? Will his numbers remain solid or will they suffer under a ripe defense? How exactly will he perform with less pressure? There are a lot of questions surrounding Luongo this upcoming season, but I’m of the belief that he will remain a top-tier goalie in the National Hockey League. Look for Luongo to hit 70 career shutouts this season (he currently sits at 66).

Jonathan Huberdeau: The big question surrounding Huberdeau is if he has the ability to bounce back. The Panthers better hope so, because if not, they’ll be in tough to make the post-season. I do believe that it was simply the sophomore curse hitting Huberdeau, and that he’ll be back on track this upcoming season.

Dave Bolland: After signing a hefty contract with the Cats, the pressure is on for Bolland. He may not be expected to score as a top-six forward (despite being paid like one), but he better play exceptionally well to prove that they didn’t make a mistake breaking the bank for him. One risk that comes with Bolland is the fact that he played just 23 games last year, so health is definitely a concern.

Erik Gudbranson: Going into his third full NHL campaign, the physical defender has to prove he was worthy of being picked third overall in 2010. He is still only 22, so it’s far from a make or break season, but the Panthers need Gudbranson to break out now more than ever. The Panthers hope he’ll be a big part of their defense moving forward.

Tomas Fleischmann: It’s a contract year for Fleischmann, and he’s going to have to do much better than the 22 points he scored last year, otherwise he likely won’t be returning as a member of the Panthers organization. He’s better than 22 points, so look for a big rebound.

On the Rise

  • Dmitry Kulikov
  • Aleksander Barkov
  • Jonathan Huberdeau

There was no shortage of “on the rise” candidates for the Panthers, but these are the three that I can see breaking out in a big way next year. As mentioned above, Kulikov played a bit under 22 minutes a game on average, and he was also able to score a career-high eight goals this past year, showing that he does have some scoring ability in him. With Brian Campbell aging and Willie Mitchell likely being nothing more than a short-term fit in Florida, it’s time for Kulikov to show that he can take over as the Panthers’ top blueliner.

While there is certainly the risk of a sophomore slump when it comes to Aleksander Barkov, he seems to play a game that would be immune to such a curse. What he has going for him is that the Panthers have support below Barkov on the depth chart, meaning he won’t be under pressure to carry the scoring, unlike some of the other young, top-line centers before him (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins comes to mind). He’ll be healthy to start the season, so look for him to further develop as a two-way center.

Jonathan Huberdeau had a dreadful year, scoring a measly nine goals and 28 points. He’s better than that, and he will do better than that. One hard hit by the sophomore slump is no reason to write him off. Look for points in the 50-60 range this upcoming season. He’s going to be a 70-point guy one day, so be on the watch for him to start showing glimpses of that potential.

On the Decline

  • Tomas Kopecky
  • Willie Mitchell
  • Shawn Thornton

The fact that there were also multiple candidates for players on the decline speaks volumes about the solid mix the Panthers have going here. The first candidate, Tomas Kopecky, has experienced a decrease in points in each of the last four seasons (42, 32, 27, 12) with this past season being his worst to date. Going into a contract year, there will be incentive for Kopecky to return to at least a 30-point player. There will be less pressure on Kopecky this upcoming season due to the fact that he has been relegated to a secondary scoring role as the wide array of young talent fills up the top-six.

Willie Mitchell, after winning two Stanley Cups with the Los Angeles Kings, seems likely to retire once his two-year deal with the Panthers is up. Mitchell is still a steady top-four guy in the NHL, but his skating is starting to deteriorate making him less capable of handling big minutes on a consistent basis. Despite that, Mitchell will still be a mentor for the young kids coming through the pipeline and will likely still be relied on to be a defensive cog for the team.

The 37-year-old Shawn Thornton, another one of the Panthers’ free agent pick-ups, is all but certainly going to retire once his current two year, $4.2 million contract is up. Is he still capable of playing quality NHL hockey? Sure he is, but don’t expect him to be playing all 82 games this season. The biggest assets Thornton brings to the table for the Panthers are character and leadership. You may remember him before the Brooks Orpik sucker punch and prior to the shenanigans with P.K. Subban and the water bottle. Thornton was actually a well-respected NHL veteran, and he’ll be relied on to show many of these young Cats the ropes. He’ll be more valuable in the locker room than on the ice this season.

On the Verge

Here are 3 prospects who might make the Panthers in 2014-15:

Aaron Ekblad: Barring injury, the 2014 first overall pick is a lock to make the team. His size and booming shot will be of great help to the Panthers. Ekblad will, in all likelihood, be put into a third pairing capacity, partnered with a fellow young Panthers’ blueliner such as Colby Robak or Alex Petrovic. Don’t be shocked if Ekblad works his way onto the second pair, or if he garners serious consideration for the Calder trophy.

Quinton Howden: Scored six points in 16 NHL games late last year. Look for the left wing to at least push for a spot on the opening lineup. The Panthers currently possess a deep forward group, so Howden may be in tough to make the starting roster. However, he will be one of the first call-ups in the case of an injury.

Vincent Trocheck: Racked up eight points in 20 games last season, and scored 42 points in 55 American Hockey Leaue games. He also may be in tough due to the plethora of centers, but he’ll definitely push hard for a slot. I personally have him penciled in as the fourth-line center, but don’t be surprised to see him on the third line at times throughout the year.

Expectations:

While ownership may expect playoffs, I’m not sure fans’ expectations are quite so high. The core of the team is still very green, and the defense is still somewhat questionable which may lead people to believe that the Panthers aren’t quite ready, but if they get bounce-back seasons from key players, and further progression from the Barkov’s of the team, the Panthers could really make some noise. It could go either way. Don’t be shocked if they miss but don’t count them out of the playoff race either. The Florida Panthers should be one of the more interesting teams to follow as the season progresses.

Of course the hope is playoffs, but I think most associated with the organization would be happy with simply seeing improvements within. They’re going to be a force. This season? Maybe not.

 

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