If there was ever a time to push the red button, now would be the time.
As of 4 P.M last Thursday, The Phillies have now made no moves at the non-waiver trade deadline the last two years. If you’re a team like the Dodgers or Cardinals with no major need, that’s understandable. But the Phillies are presumably heading towards their 3rd non-contending season, and have yet to begin a rebuilding process. This was a deadline they simply could not afford to idle by. Why?
For one, it is clear they aren’t contending anytime soon. The Nationals and Braves look to be competitive for the next 2-3 years at the least, along with the Marlins and Mets stockpiling prospects, hoping to be contenders as early as 2015. Where does that leave the Phills? At the bottom. Even if they manage to get close to a Wild Card, there are simply too many teams in the National League better than them. In the current state, there is no player they could acquire to make them competitive in the near future, and even if there was, they don’t have the prospects to acquire him.
Secondly, every day the Phillies wait to rebuild, the older any tradable assets get. Philadelphia currently sits as the 3rd oldest team in baseball, and also have the third highest payroll. With their players making $6,125,397 on average this year, shedding old, expensive talent in exchange for young, controllable talent is the only way to move forward. And it isn’t as if they had no tradable pieces.
Teams like the Mariners, Yankees and Royals were looking for an offensive outfielder. The Phillies have OF Marlon Byrd, who has a .272/.320/.479 slash line, and a wRC+ (Weighted Runs Created Plus) of 120, which is very solid.
The Cardinals, Giants, and Pirates all looked for Starting Pitching, and while linked to David Price, none of them wanted a rental. The Phillies had two top-tier SPs in Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, who both were locked up long-term, and top of the rotation arms.
A plethora of teams looked for middle infield help. The Phillies have 2B Chase Utley, who despite hitting only 9 HRs, has a 3.5 WAR so far this season.
What is the problem with these players then? Old and expensive.
But the main reason teams didn’t bite, was because of the asking price for these players. Phillies asked for 2 top prospects from the Mariners for Marlon Byrd, and for Cole Hamels, they asked teams for their 4 best prospects, and would only eat 10 million of the 90 million remaining on his contract. And yet still GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said teams were not aggressive enough, on a day that set a record for number of deals made.
Phillies very easily could have capitalized on the amount of teams buying this year, if they weren’t so stubborn. They probably could of flipped Marlon Byrd for a couple B-B+ prospects, at the least. Utley could have gotten around the same as well. And if they traded Hamels, at least 1-2 impact players, and 2-3 more mid-level guys. Though other, younger players were out there, the Phillies still had quality talent that was signed long term.
But instead they chose to keep the asking price astronomical, both in terms of talent and finances, and now they will have to face the music. This offseason, the amount of FA pitching available will be staggering. The class includes Max Scherzer, Jon Lester and James Shields, who all aren’t likely to sign extensions between now and then. The problem they face now is that teams would rather spend money, than give up young talent. And if you have a lot of pitchers on the FA market, the price for them goes down. Maron Byrd likely won’t continue to keep up production for many more years, given he turns 37 this offeason. Chase Utley turns 35 this offseason. Cliff Lee will turn 36, but his career is hanging in the balance because of injuries he suffered the last several years.
From an outside perspective, it seems the Phills are in limbo, not really rebuilding, while not being able to contend. And though they have money and a great fan base, they can’t compete unless they start making moves to do so. They have had two years to decide if they could still make a run for the playoffs, and to be honest, that hope left a long time ago. If they hope to be competitive anytime in the next 5 years, they have to steer the ship towards acquiring young, impactful talent, and away from colossal deals like the one where they traded Jonathan Singleton and Jarred Cosart to the Astros.
Earlier this week we learned that Cole Hamels was claimed off waivers, and that team has ended up being the Chicago Cubs. With a glut of young talent, the Phillies had a chance to work out a deal and bring back multiple, impactful position players. They had approximately two days to work out a deal, but of course a deal could not be made. One must wonder if Ruben Amaro is capable of redirecting this ship, or he will simply allow it to sink. As it stands now, this is an emergency.
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