Iowa State head coach Paul Rhoads rolls into his sixth season at the school. Taking them to three bowls in the last five years, Rhoads has surprised many analysts, writers, and fans. He’s had miracle upsets almost every season in Ames and even miracle seasons. As a writer I’ll say this: Iowa State will feature an over/under of five wins in 2014, and a huge upset could be exactly what they need to turn their season into a fourth bowl game in six years.
Iowa State Football Schedule Analysis (Games 1-6)
Saturday, August 30th: vs North Dakota State 11:00 a.m. C.T.
Despite being an FCS foe, NDSU comes into this game as a bit of a threat to the Cyclones. The NDSU Bison are three-time FCS defending champions, but they have lost quite a few seniors and their renowned head coach, Craig Bohl. Iowa State has won 13 of their last 15 home openers and beat the Bison in their only previous meeting 34-17 in 2009. The Cyclones are coming off of a two-game win streak from last year and competing with a group of players with plenty of heart.
Prediction: Although some oddsmakers will favor North Dakota State, the Cyclones will overcome the odds and beat the Bison with their loaded offensive attack. Iowa State starts off the season with a win going into their family weekend game against Kansas State.
Record: 1-0
Saturday, September 6th: vs Kansas State 11:00 a.m. C.T.
It’s the name that has emerged over the last year, and so has the rivalry. Farmageddon is always an intense game, as it has been decided by less than eight points in five of the last six meetings; Kansas State won all of those. Six in a row could become seven if Kansas State can execute properly. Quarterback Jake Waters was last season’s so-called “backup,” but he still made quality throws to Tyler Lockett, Kansas State’s ace wideout.
Prediction: Lockett has a game for the ages, but Iowa State keeps it close throughout the game, up until the 4th quarter. KSU’s defensive line will be too much to handle for Grant Rohach and offensive coordinator Mark Mangino in just their second game of the year.
Record: 1-1 (0-1 in Big 12)
Saturday, September 13th: at Iowa 2:30 p.m. C.T.
The Cy-Hawk Trophy Game comes back to Kinnick Stadium with the defending champions on their home turf. Iowa State has won two out of the last three, which have all been decided by six or less points.
Prediction: Another close game will be just what the Cyclones need, especially against the inexperienced defense that Iowa has. Iowa State will have trouble stopping the run game with the running back trio in Iowa City. It may need some time, but this high-scoring battle will go to the Cyclones.
Record: 2-1 (0-1 in Big 12)
Saturday, September 27th: vs Baylor (Time TBD)
As Baylor comes to Ames, Iowa State fans can only remember their 2013 game. The final was 71-7, favoring Baylor. It was the worst game the team had played all season and even with the game being in Waco, it was still no excuse for a deficit like that. Both teams have a bye week coming into this game.
Prediction: Iowa State’s defense won’t be able to stop the passing attack of Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty. It won’t be 71-7, but Baylor will take this one by a big margin.
Record: 2-2 (0-2 in Big 12)
Saturday, October 4th: at Oklahoma State (Time TBD)
Since their major upset in 2011, Iowa State hasn’t beaten Oklahoma State. They just haven’t figured out what this gun show offense is doing. Two straight losses of 20+ points isn’t at all what Iowa State wanted after an upset of the decade.
Prediction: Iowa State won’t be able to stay with the Cowboys, which will result in their third loss of the season.
Record: 2-3 (0-3 in Big 12)
Saturday, October 11th: vs Toledo 2:30 p.m. C.T.
It’s Homecoming Week at Iowa State, but for some reason the opponent isn’t who college football fans expected. On that October Saturday, Iowa State will line up against Toledo instead of the top-ranked opponents that normally come to Ames for the annual homecoming game. Regardless, Iowa State will be put up against a Toledo team that used to give them trouble to start the year. Now it’s the Cyclones’ most predictable win of the season.
Prediction: Iowa State gets a much-needed win and is one step closer to a bowl game. A large homecoming crowd is in for a much-needed stomping at home.
Record: 3-3 (0-3 in Big 12)
Now if the Cyclones take that 3-3 record into their seventh game, a bowl game is very likely to occur for the fans in Ames. The schedule grows easier as the season goes on, especially their last four games. Read all about the rest of the predictions in Part 2 of my Iowa State schedule analysis tomorrow.
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