The Cincinnati Reds recently signed pitcher Jair Jurrjens to a minor league contract. Not a flashy move by the front office to be sure, but the name Jurrjens may cause a few fans’ ears to prick up. Originally an international signing by the Tigers from the Caribbean island of Curacao, Jurrjens posted universally impressive numbers throughout the minor leagues before making his debut with the Tigers in 2007. Then in the offseason, he was traded to Atlanta along with Gorkys Hernandez for Edgar Renteria. The rest was (briefly) history.
For two seasons Jurrjens dazzled. In 2008 Jurrjens posted a 3.68 ERA over 31 starts, allowing only 0.53 HR/9. He was even better in 2009, pitching to a ridiculous 2.60 ERA, stranding 79.4% of all baserunners. Then in 2010, knee injuries took their toll. He got back on pace in the first half of 2011, but then following poor performance following the All-Star break he went to the DL to repair his previously injured knee. Since that injury, Jurrjens has not posted an ERA under 4 at any professional level.
Can an injury truly derail what seemed to be on pace for a truly historic career? It absolutely can. The Reds are trying to catch lightning in a bottle with a no-risk minor league deal and create a depth piece that could slot into their rotation or provide more innings for their bullpen.
Yet… was that lightning ever really there? Was Jurrjens ever truly a pitcher that could throw a season’s worth of 2.60 ball?
I don’t think he was. Jurrjens’ miraculous 2009 season was just that, a miracle. In fact, in 2009 Jurrjens was pitching in the midst of a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) fueled fever dream. Hitters possessed a measly .268 BABIP, far away from the .301 mark they had the previous year.
Jurrjens’ only comparable season was 2011. Jurrjens had a ridiculous start to the year, but then fell off the face of the earth in the second half before landing on the DL, so keep in mind these numbers include that bad bit of baseball. In 2011, Jurrjens posted a 2.96 ERA, .296 BABIP and 81% Left on Base Percentage. That’s an astronomical percentage, and once again all this includes his bad second half games.
So, just how lucky was Jurrjens getting? Let’s see what the xFIP metric has to say. xFIP is a version of the Fielding Independent Metric, you can find a full explanation of it here. According to xFIP, Jurrjens performance in 2009 was more indicative of a 4.28 ERA, as a result of his unusually low BABIP and usually high LOB%. He was simply getting lucky and outperforming his huge 1.37 WHIP (walks plus hits divided by innings pitched). For 2011, xFIP gives him a 4.23. Jurrjens was even getting lucky in his big league debut with the Tigers, a 4.70 ERA to a 5.32 xFIP. In fact, Jurrjens has only posted an xFIP below 4.00 once, in 2008. Even that was a 3.92 mark in contrast to his 3.68 ERA.
This is not to say a pitcher is always exactly beholden to his peripherals. Mark Buehrle of the Blue Jays almost always outpitches his FIP and xFIP, curiously. However, given Jurrjens’ ludicrous BABIP and LOB% marks during his periods of success, we can safely say that was in fact just luck. Between that and decreasing velocity on his fastball and slider, one has to wonder just exactly what lightening GM Walt Jocketty and the Reds are trying to catch in a bottle. Because while where there’s thunder, there’s lightening… the success of Jurrjens may have just been a lot of noise.
For the latest sports injury news, check out our friends at Sports Injury Alert.
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