The Toronto Maple Leafs have not had a number one centre since the departure of Mats Sundin. Every year when weaknesses that need to be addressed are discussed, a skilled centre to play with Kessel is always the need most focused on. However, at the 33 game mark, it is clear that a shutdown defenceman, not a centre is the most pressing need for this team if they hope to make the playoffs for a second straight season.
At the beginning of the year, the Leafs’ struggles in their own zone were apparent. They were being vastly outshot and dominated in the possession game. Although it was concerning, they kept finding a way to win, relying on a strong goaltending, and timely scoring from their great offensive depth. Sometimes teams have slow starts, especially when there are several new additions trying to find chemistry with their new teammates and get used to a new coach and system. However, when a third of the season has passed, the problems have not been fixed and the team is not winning, you have a problem.
So what is the problem? Well for one, the Leafs are last in the league in Shots Against/60 minutes with 34.9, a whole 1.1 more than the next nearest team, the rival Ottawa Senators. They also have two players in the top 10 in giveaways and four in the top 25, more than any other team. Furthermore, their Corsi Against (a measurement of shots against, missed shots against, and blocked shots against added together) was dead last in the league at 1646, 125 higher than the next nearest team, the Montreal Canadiens (All numbers via stats.hockeyanalysis.com). The common denominator of these stats is Toronto is spending too much of the game without the puck. They do not have the opportunity to use their deep offense and establish a strong forecheck and pressure the opposition since they are spending too much time in their zone trying to gain possession. The high Corsi number is indicative of the other team generating a lot of shots towards the Leafs net. To make things worse, when the Leafs do get the puck, they have one of the highest giveaway totals in the league.
The odds are Toronto’s possession game would be much better if they had a reliable top four shutdown defenceman. Currently, their top eight defencemen are: Dion Phaneuf, Carl Gunnarsson, Jake Gardiner, Cody Franson, Morgan Rielly, Paul Ranger, Mark Fraser and John-Michael Liles. Only two (Carl Gunnarsson and Mark Fraser) could be considered a shutdown type. Phaneuf is usually dominant in the possession game and is consistently among the lead leaders for time on ice (his 24:06 average this year leads the team, according to sportingcharts.com). The team relies on him in all situations, however to increase his effectiveness and reduce the risk of their best defenceman getting worn out or injured, additional defensive help is needed.
So who to target? Lately, it has been rumoured that Carolina has shown interest in Toronto Marlies defenceman John-Michael Liles (via Nick Kypreos on Sportsnet). Liles, who was banished to the Marlies at the beginning of the season for salary cap reasons and a crowded blueline, has performed well in the minors, accumulating 3 goals and 13 points in 16 games. This intriguing since the man rumoured to come back in this potential deal is Tim Gleason, a rugged shutdown defenceman. Gleason would definitely help in alleviating the pressure on Phaneuf and provide the type of presence in the defensive zone the team has lacked throughout the season. Another option could be Nick Schultz of the Edmonton Oilers. Schultz is another veteran defensive presence who could probably be had for relatively cheap closer to the trade deadline. Or if the Leafs decided to wait, they could take a run at Dan Girardi this offseason if The New York Rangers do not manage to re-sign him. Although it is a longshot, he is one of the best young shutdown defenceman in the league and would immediately increase the team’s chance at success going forward.
Although Gardiner and Rielly have elite potential and are the future of the Leafs, their strengths lie in quarterbacking the power play and rushing the puck, not taking on the toughest defensive assignments, or being a rugged, physical defensive presence. If Toronto wants to make serious on their promises of competing for a Stanley Cup in the near future reality, then improving their possession game and adding a shutdown defenceman are a must.
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