Sports. Honestly. Since 2011

The State of Soccer in Montreal

March 17th, 2012 is arguably the biggest day in the history of the Montreal Impact franchise to date. The third Canadian soccer club to join Major League Soccer, the Impact were playing their first ever home game against the Chicago Fire. The Impact were looking to recover in their return home after losing their first ever MLS game 2-0 to Canadian, and former USL-1 rivals, the Vancouver Whitecaps. However,in some ways the Impact were not truly returning “home”.

Saputo Stadium, the home of the Impact, was being updated to host the new MLS squad and wouldn’t be ready in time for the first few games. Therefore, the Impact had to turn to the next available option, which in this case was located directly next door.

The Olympic Stadium hasn’t had a full time tenant since the Montreal Expos of Major League Baseball left for Washington in 2004. March 17th wasn’t the first time that the Impact had played at the Stadium though.

In 2008 the Impact won the first ever Canadian Championship and were rewarded with a berth in the 2008-09 CONCACAF Champions League, originally the CONCACAF Champions Cup. Being from USL-1, the now defunct second division of North American soccer, Les Impact were not given much of a chance by most who thought they would be content just taking part. However, by the 25th of February, Montreal was playing the first of a two-legged quarter-final against regional giants, Santos Leguna, at the Olympic Stadium.

The match was not only memorable for the result, a 2-0 victory, but for the fact that 55,000-plus packed the Stadium to watch a second division Canadian soccer club.

On March 17th, 2012, three years later, the Impact had taken things a step further playing in front of 58,912 at that very same venue. The result was rather forgettable, a 1-1 draw, although it did see club captain Davy Arnaud score the first goal in the club’s MLS history. But it was the fact that the Impact were able to draw record crowds, the third biggest for a soccer event worldwide that weekend, which made it seem that Montreal may be the most rapidly successful Major League Soccer club in terms of fanbase of all time.

While the numbers dropped after the first game (which is very common) they remained respectable. A 2-1 victory over Toronto FC in their second MLS home game saw 23,192 supporters come out to support the team – an admirable turnout. From then on the normal attendance at an Olympic Stadium Impact game averaged around 20,000, which is very good for an MLS team. Off course when David Beckham and the LA Galaxy came to town fans returned in massive numbers and set a record in the process – 60,860.

Shifting to Saputo Stadium the attendance looked like it would be near perfect.  The average Montreal crowd was about 20,000, which would be a near sellout at the field located in the shadow of Olympic Stadium.

The first MLS game at the official stadium of the Montreal Impact took place on June 16th against the Seattle Sounders. The match was fantastic for the Impact, a 4-1 win that remains to this day the best they have ever achieved in their short history in the league. However, looking up into the stands the Impact players had to feel a bit discouraged. Up until that point attendance for the Impact had always been over 19,000. But against Seattle, in the debut of the newly renovated Saputo Stadium, the lowest crowd in Montreal’s short MLS history, a crowd of 17,112, turned up.

It would only get worse from there. Montreal would continue their run of good form on the pitch in their next home game, beating Houston Dynamo 4-2, but their run of excellent form wasn’t enough to fill the seats as a piddly 12,375 fans showed up to take in the action.

Four days later against a team supposedly considered the Impact’s rivals, Toronto FC, they drew only 14,412 to watch their team lose 3-0 to the team at the bottom of the table. Some rivalry.

Attendance fell to an all time low during the next match, a 3-1 loss to Sporting Kansas City in which only 12,085 supporters turned up. This was a 500% decrease from the crowd that witnessed the Impact take on he Galaxy and was a very disheartening sign for the future of the club, however short lived the clubs time in MLS has already been.

It is difficult to tell where the club and its attendance will go from here. The fact that it is so early in the club’s MLS history and they are already experiencing rapidly decreasing fan support. It could also get a whole lot worse if the team can’t start winning and the Montreal Alouettes of the CFL begin to play more meaningful games taking more of the media spotlight. Not to mention the Montreal Canadiens, by far the biggest ticket event in the city, who will resume their season in October if the current CBA negotiations don’t translate into a lockout.

However, not only has the attendance dwindled as they have gone deeper into their first Major League Soccer campaign, but a large part of the rapid decrease in live support can be attributed to the change of venue. At the Olympic Stadium the lowest turnout for an MLS game was over 19,000. At Saputo the record turnout is 2,000 less then that.

As for why this is happening it certainly isn’t entirely location. Saputo is directly next to the Olympic stadium. Both are located fairly far from where the majority of the Montreal population live and therefore some people are less likely to make the trip out to the stadium. But this problem is somewhat common for MLS teams. It may be because the team has not been winning.  Even the crowds rapidly decreased near the end of the Montreal Canadiens’ season when it became clear they would not make the playoffs, and that could be what is happening with the Montreal soccer club. Though it is still relatively early in the season, so the likelihood of fans giving up this early is rather unlikely. It may be that it doesn’t make a big difference to the general public in Montreal whether the team is in the first division (MLS) or the second division (NASL).

Another explanation, and one that seems most likely, is ticket pricing. The ticket pricing at Saputo Stadium versus the Olympic Stadium increased greatly, which only makes sense because there are less seats to fill in Saputo Stadium and it seemed to be plenty of demand. But this increase in price has discouraged fans from making the trip to see a team who win less then half of the time even if this is their first season in the league. It does depend on the opponent and the day of the week as well, as it does with every other team in the league. Wednesdays will never bring the same type of crowds to the Stadium that show up when the club is playing a weekend game. The same can be said for opposition. Every time Beckham and the LA Galaxy come to town stadiums fill up to watch the most famous footballer in North American history. When the Portland Timbers come to town fans become far less likely to buy tickets and watch a game with relatively no internationally acclaimed soccer stars.

So the question becomes, “How can Montreal fix the attendance issues at Saputo Stadium?” Joey Saputo, the stadium’s namesake, and the rest of the Montreal Impact management team have been hard at work trying to answer this very question. One of the categories that has been already highlighted is ticket pricing. Reports are that prices are starting to decrease and it is very possible that this will see an increase in attendance. Star power has also become a big factor in Montreal’s plan to draw crowds to watch their games live. They made their first big move by acquiring world famous Italian defender Alessandro Nesta, a player who will not only anchor their backline but draw possibly thousands of Italian and AC Milan supporters to the Stadium. Furthermore, it doesn’t appear that the Impact are done either. Reports that they are close to acquiring the services of equally famous Juventus and Italian national striker Alessandro Del Piero have been re-occurring.

If attendance issues persist even with decreased ticket prices and the acquisition of Alessandro Nesta, at what point does this become a major issue? It appears certain that Montreal can draw at least 12,000, but that was very similar to the crowds they had in the NASL. Also 12,000 is a pretty poor consistent crowd considering the advances that Major League Soccer has made in recent years in terms of attendance. It is also very poor attendance for an expansion team as all of the teams so far have come into the league to decent crowds, as Montreal did early on in the campaign. The current average attendance still sits at 25,357, widely inflated by the two games with crowds over 50,000. The average will drop to at least 21,000 later in the season, as that is the capacity of Saputo Stadium . A second question to consider is, “How much further will the Montreal Impact’s attendance slide?”.

Follow me on twitter – @lastwordmitch

In Limbo: Shea Weber and the impact of a new NHL CBA on Contract Negotiations

There is no doubt that Shea Weber is one of the best defencemen in the NHL.  He is an Olympic Gold Medalist, a multi-time Norris finalist, and multi-time NHL all-star.  A staunch defender with a wicked point shot, and great PP instincts, Weber has been bringing it at both ends of the ice for the Nashville Predators, who he captains.  However recent events have put Weber’s Nashville future in doubt.

In order to keep Weber a Restricted Free Agent, the Nashville Predators made Weber a one year qualifying offer worth $7.5 million.  This is the same amount as his salary from last season, which of course was awarded to him by an arbitrator a little less than one year ago.  The deadline for signing Qualifying Offers was this weekend, however Weber did not sign.   The team and the player have mutually agreed to extend the deadline to August 1st.

As we all know by now, Weber’s long-time defence partner Ryan Suter went to unrestricted free agency this summer.  He signed a mega-deal with the Minnesota Wild.  Unless Free Agency rules change in the new CBA, Weber would become eligible to be an unrestricted free agent next summer when he reaches the age of 27.  Signing his one year offer sheet could put Weber in the same situation that Ryan Suter was in this year, the most sought after free agent on the market.

However, here is where things get messy.  First off one of the requests made by the NHL in the new CBA negotiations would involve requiring players to wait longer before becoming UFAs.  While the League’s ten year proposal is probably a bit excessive, there is a chance that they may be able to push the age for UFA back giving Nashville more control over Weber and his contract status.  This would delay Weber’s potential shot at the open market and will cost him money, even if he does stay loyal to the Preds.  He will lose some bargaining power.

Weber also has to consider that the NHL really wants to close of the salary cap loophole that are long-term contracts such as the one Suter signed.  Negotiating a long term front loaded deal with the Preds now may be in Weber’s best interests, as it is unlikely that such a deal will be possible under a new CBA.  This can mean a lot more money for Weber upfront, and be beneficial to Nashville as they would be able to reduce his cap hit.

From Nashville’s perspective, Weber is the face of their franchise.  Nashville needs to get this deal done, and make it a long term one.  They have to get this guy signed as he means everything to them.  He’s clearly the best player in Predator’s history and a big reason why they are consistently competitive year in and year out.  After losing Suter, they quite simply can not allow the same situation to play out with Weber, and should be willing shell out the cash to keep him happy.

If Weber were to signing the offer sheet, at best Unrestricted Free Agency would be staring Weber in the face next off-season, and at worst, the Predators and Weber would go through the same song and dance as a Restricted free agent next summer.  With Nashville’s loss of Suter, plus the draft picks they gave up for Gaustad, Kostitsyn, and Gill,  and the departure of Radulov yet again, the Preds can’t afford to take the risk that Weber could be one and done.  If they can’t re-sign him long term, they need to trade him and recoup assets that a Norris finalist could bring in re-building the team.

In this way, a long-term deal for Weber just makes sense for both sides.  The next few weeks should tell us if they can get it done.

Feel free to leave your comments below and follow me on twitter @lastwordBKerr

 

 

 

 

NFC South Preview: Carolina Panthers Poised to Take a Step Forward

Earlier this week I started my NFL previews.  I got things rolling with the NFC South, and began with the New Orleans Saints, and Atlanta Falcons.  Today, I move on to the Carolina Panthers.

Oftentimes in the NFL people like to predict incremental growth for teams based on the recent past.  They see a weak team one year who adds a few players and improve in year two.  Then in year three they add a few more wins, so in year four everyone is predicting yet another improvement from the “young nucleus.” A good example of this is the Detroit Lions who have seen their win totals improve starting with 0 and climbing to 2, 6 and finally a 10-win playoff berth this last season.

It is fun to see it happen and everyone feels good about themselves when it does.  But in the NFL it usually doesn’t work this way.  When a team shows improvement in the first year, in order to extrapolate more wins the following year, the team must have added pieces to their puzzle – we can’t just assume they improve because “they are growing”.  In fact, most of the time there is little reason to assume improvement in year two.

Take the Lions for example again.  While they have followed this nice growth model for the last four seasons I have my doubts that the trend can continue.  Many are predicting Detroit to take the next step, but unless they add to their squad I don’t see how they will get much better.

Most of the time a team showing improvement one year was simply the benefactor of an easy schedule or some good fortune, and they will fall back to the pack the next year.  Though there is the potential to work in reverse though.

It is said that a team is “a year away” when a young group of players is coming together, but still losing. People like to see the linear growth of a team coming together and expect it to happen far more than it does.  I think many will predict this for the Carolina Panthers this season.  I think that as long as Cam Newton takes the next step there is no reason this Panthers squad has to be a year away from anything.

Improvement can happen in leaps and bounds in the NFL, too, and there is no reason why you have to struggle for two or three seasons before finally breaking through to the playoffs, especially when you have an emerging superstar at quarterback.  What Cam Newton did last season was simply amazing and it proved all the people like me totally wrong.  Newton was overlooked by most writers and talking heads but shoved it in all their faces.  I think there was residual doubt about Newton because of the lack of success of recent top picks JaMarcus Russell and Vince Young, which I suppose is understandable.  But what Newton did in college was special and should not have been overlooked.  He went undefeated for the #1 team in the country and their record was based primarily on his skills.  When he was down 24-nothing to the most vicious college defense around (Alabama) he took over the game and brought his team back to victory to preserve the unbeaten season.  Oh, and it was in Alabama!  It was wrong of everybody to doubt Cam Newton and after last season I will doubt him no more.

The Panthers already have a good enough offense in place with Newton, a solid offensive line, and a strong stable of running backs with Jonathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams.  Throw in Steve Smith, who definitely is not too old, and the offense has all it needs for a successful season.

So what needs to happen for them to take down the division?  Well, the defense has to show up and look good.  Last season the Carolina defense was two things: injured and virtually non-existent.  Footballoutsiders.com ranked the Panthers last in three key categories in 2011: total defense, special teams, and adjusted games lost to injury on defense (meaning they were the most injured).  The defense will improve simply because it is hard to be that bad on defense two years in a row, but also because some key players are returning from injury and they used the #9 overall pick to draft linebacker Luke Kuechly.

Football teams don’t always take four years for everything to come together, and the biggest reason they seem to come together in a hurry is when a team finds a superstar at QB.  Cam Newton can be that player.  If he takes that next step this year then you’d better not be caught sleeping on the Panthers.

… and that’s the Last Word.

Mike Green Contract Extension – Good or Bad?

In the 2011-12 playoffs Mike Green had 4 points in 14 games and only 2 power play points. He was able to lace up for only 32 regular season games and scored only 7 points. The year before that he had 49 regular season games played and mustered only 24 points. So what in god’s name warrants a new $6 million per year contract from the Washington Capitals?

What made George McPhee, Washington Capitals GM, sign the 26-year-old to a three-year, $18.25 million contract extension, came down to multiple of factors.

One of the reasons why Green got 6 million a year, and perhaps most importantly, is the market, specifically the signings of Dennis Wideman to a five-year deal worth $26.5 million in Calgary and the Jason Garrison contract of 6 years worth $27.6 million in Vancouver. If you can justify the Jason Garrison contract you can certainly justify Green’s. Green is two years removed from having Erik Karlsson numbers. Karlssson inked a seven-year deal with AAC worth $6.5 million. So what argument was McPhee going to use to cheapen Green’s contract? He would most definitely get that or more in an arbitration case. Keep in mind that this is not a lifetime deal – it is for three years at a market price for a player that can, and has, put up 70 points from the back-end. A no-brainer move to me, considering the Capitals still have over 10 million in CAP space.

The second reason is that Green’s play has evolved.

Player Name Corsi ON .+- QoC
Mathieu perreault

11.54

-0.058

Alexander Semin

5.21

-0.02

Mike Green

4.45

-0.007

Nicklas Backstrom

3.76

-0.029

Dennis Wideman

-1.09

-0.017

We can see here that Mike Green ranked 3rd in Corsi ON stat according to behindthenet.ca. This means he is a positive influence when on the ice. A very interesting thing to note is that he was also a plus-5 during the playoffs. That was good for 3rd on the team. If one is to argue his defensive qualities and that he is a soft player, I would retort that in no way are the Washington Capitals paying Green $6 million to play defense.  What you cannot argue is that his defensive game has improved.   The offensive numbers are down across the board for all Capitals players the past two seasons and of course Green was no exception.

The third reason why this contract happened is because of the new coach – Adam Oates. Simply, they need to restart the engine on the Capitals power play and Oates is the man to do it. “I used Mike’s footage the last couple years in New Jersey showing the D how to corral the puck, move a puck and have the poise back there,” Oates said via washingtontimes.com. The new coach did wonders to fix the power play issues of the NJ Devils. He has much better talent to work with the Capitals organization.

Make no mistake that this is a good singing for the Capitals. Worst case scenario Green does no less than he has in the past two years. The Capitals were still a playoff team and you can part ways after 3 years if things go sour. What about the upside? If Oates can just get Green to score 30 power play points and have Mike flirt with 50-60 points, who knows what Washington’s ceiling would become? Who would laugh then? Remember that you have to compare Green’s contract to what is out there right now.  The market pays, and it pays big, for a puck-moving defenseman. Keep your head up, Caps fans, McPhee isn’t known for handing out bad contracts and this one is no different.

Nate Marquardt: The Road Back to the UFC

Nate Marquardt’s name has been synonymous with controversy over the course of his career. Nate has often found himself at the forefront of the steroid saga whenever the topic has reared its ugly head in the UFC. Twice Nate has been caught using a banned substance, and after this most recent debacle he found himself getting the boot from the UFC, just prior to his welterweight debut. Saturday night Nate “The Great” Marquardt captured the vacant welterweight title; which now leaves the question open – will he be allowed back to the UFC?

One thing that every fan of the UFC knows Dana White has no patience for users of banned substances; you get caught, you get the boot. Marquardt was first caught for a banned substance when he tested positive for nandrolone following his win over Ivan Salaverry at Ultimate Fight Night 1. While eventually cleared of this first infraction, it seems odd that nandrolone just happened to show up in his first urine test. In January 2011 Marquardt was positioned to make his welterweight debut headlining the Versus 4 event. Unfortunately, just prior to the event, Nate was forced to withdraw after testing positive for an elevated level of testosterone (of course, he was eventually proven innocent). Subsequently, Dana White noted that we would never see Nate Marquardt in the UFC again.

Hearing Nate get the boot from the UFC was a sad day for many. Despite his inability to seal the deal and lock up an opportunity to get another title shot, he’s always been known as a well rounded fighter who can put on a great show; his fight against Wilson Gouveia at UFC 95 still goes down as one of my favourite fights of all time. With Nate moving down to welterweight, it presented what many thought would be a viable challenge to long time champion Georges St. Pierre.

Fortunately, for us Nate isn’t one to sit back and wait for things to work out. After first being signed to the BAMMA UK fight promotion (and shortly thereafter released, likely for contract reasons), Nate came to back to ZUFFA under Strikeforce banner for a fight this Saturday. With his victory over Tyron Woodley he seems to be on the road back to the UFC.

Nate publicly stated after being released from his BAMMA contract that he was going to sit and wait until the UFC came back to his front door. While Dana White is known for his knee jerk reactions, he is better known for softening his stance on issues – especially when it comes to allowing fighters back into the UFC promotion. In February of 2012 Dana White, after meeting with Marquradt, stated that he would: “put him back in Strikeforce and see what happens“. I would take this to mean that you will see Marquardt back in the UFC by early 2013.

After a few successful title defences, Marquardt will likely announce that he is returning to the UFC. My prediction now, is that his first fight in the UFC will be against reigning welterweight champion, Georges St. Pierre. I am thinking as it stands right now early-2013 will be the date set for the return.

At any rate, I am happy to see Nate on his way back. I don’t think it’s a matter of whether he will be back, but when. Let’s just hope he can make weight (another issue Nate is a repeat offender on), and can have his tests come back clean!

… and that is the last word.

 

 

Life in Columbus After Rick Nash

If I ask you to name a good solid franchise in the NHL with excellent management and a good up and coming pool of talent, what are the few teams that would spring to mind? I bet Columbus Blue Jackets are not on that list, are they?

The Blue Jackets have been around since 2000 expansion and made the playoffs once, while managing to place higher than 11th spot in the West only once. This saddens me.  I like this franchise, and feel sorry for the fan base and the players.

Unlike the fans of Toronto Maple Leafs, Columbus fans are not located in the Mecca of hockey. While Leaf fans have a team with Uncle Scrooge money, the Blue jackets are more of a Launchpad McQuack. According to Forbes.com, though we may not have the most recent numbers, the team showed deep loses for the past 6 years. The skinny is that the team simply is not making money and that’s bad mmmkay.  Lack of winning has certainly led to hard times for this darling of a franchise (not helping is the tough division they play in). It is hard to build a strong fan base when you are constantly losing. It takes a toll on everyone, even the players, who naturally play to win the game. Sadly the worst of times is just around the corner, as the team Captain and team leader in every offensive category, Rick Nash, has demanded a trade.

I have always dreamed about being a GM of a hockey franchise. The endless hours of watching hockey is something I do already anyway, so I figured it would be fun to get paid for it (for this writing gig, I get paid in vodka). I spent thousands of hours playing the GM Mode in EA Sports NHL series, so how hard would the real world be? Clearly I’m ready.  Well, as of right now there is one job I would not want – Scott Howson’s job. This man has been the GM of the Columbus Blue Jackets since June 15, 2007, and he is about to face his toughest challenge yet.

Most hockey fans associate two things with the Columbus Blue Jackets – losing and Rick Nash. He has been the lone superstar that has played for the home squad at Nationwide Arena. Since 07-08 season, no one has had more of a successful season than Rick Nash on Columbus – few can even be mentioned in the same breath. He is their captain and leading scorer, their best draft pick of all time and he wants out. It is all very sad isn’t it?

Scott Howson and his team of scouts have failed to surround Nash with any young talent, despite having favorable draft positions over the years, and it seems he has had enough. To give you a perspective of the poor drafting, (Vanek, Suter, Phaneuf, Carter, Brown, Seabrook, Bernier, Parise, and Getzlaf are all names that went in the year Columbus picked Zherdev), last season Columbus had 8 forwards play for their team that were their own draftees – that’s it. Cam Atrkinson (14 points), Ryan Johansen (21 points), Matt Calvert (3 points), Maksim Mayorov (2 points), Jared Boll (3 points), Derek Dorsett (20 points), and Tomas Kubalik (2 points), and the lone other person to have any relevant point production was Derick Brassard (41 points). Not exactly a fantasy-laced squad, is it?

What is even worse is that we all remember how happy Jeff Carter was when he was traded to Columbus. The free agents simply do not want to sign here. When was the last time you heard a big name on the free agent list and “Blue Jackets” in the same headline? The Parise/Suter sweepstakes this offseason is a good example – a shame, but a reality. Money does not always talk, especially with NHL players who seem to choose what is more comfortable over the big pay. Not that the Blue Jackets were big spenders, anyhow.

Nash will undoubtedly be gone and Columbus will not be better after he goes. Howson has a big job ahead of him and he needs to shape-up; quickly. Ryan Johansen and Cam Atrkinson could become interesting players down the road, but neither look like the franchise-type. Drafting a proper center would be a good start. Nash has not had a solid, true number-one center in his entire career it seems. The signing of Vinny Prospal was a decent one; he is talented, but at 37-years old, how much is left in the tank? Ryan Murray was picked this year with number-two overall pick. As solid a choice as there could be, but he is not a center.

There have been worse teams in the West since Columbus’ inception, and they have all used the draft as a way to build themselves back up. In the 03-04 season Chicago was last in the West.  In 05-06 St.Louis, followed by  Phoenix, LA Kings, and the Edmonton Oilers – not bad company, agree?  So, what is the difference between those teams and Columbus? Chicago and LA won the Stanley Cup, St.Louis and Phoenix were 2nd and 3rd seeds, and the Oilers have one of the best young cores of forwards in the NHL.

Some will blame goaltending, Mason has been a huge let down since his rookie year, while others say it is bad luck with the draftees.  I say it is the oval office, the suits, the guys that give out the million-dollar checks. Time to shape up, Mr.Howson. When you are bad for this long it is only a reflection of you and not the players.

…and that is the last word.

 

EDIT: Changed the Logo as per Columbus Blue Jackets fans request.

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons Grind out Wins

Yesterday I began my NFL Previews with a look at the reigning NFC South Champions, the New Orleans Saints. Today we look at the team with the best chance to knock them off and my pick to take the division this year, the Atlanta Falcons.

The Atlanta Falcons have to be the least exciting good team in all of football.  At least when the Baltimore Ravens win with defense they make sure they hit some people very hard along the way.  Atlanta just seems to grind out every game and come out on top in the end.  But that isn’t a criticism, there is skill in that too.  It takes a very disciplined style and the Falcons have that mastered.  They have finished in the top five in both penalty yards against and turnover deferential in each of the last two years while leading the league in both in 2010. They are also a model of consistency finishing 2nd and 1st in the footballoutsiders.com team variance rankings in each of the last two years.  They also have a built in advantage playing in a dome and they have only dropped three games at home over the past two years.  Falcons head coach Mike Smith has certainly built the kind of team he wants.  So are they good enough to take the next step, or have they already reached their pinnacle?

There are plenty of people who are predicting a decline for the Falcons because their team is past it’s prime – most point to the age of key running back Michael Turner.  While I agree that the Falcons time to win is right now and that many of their players are on the tipping point of getting old I don’t think they will have a massive decline all of a sudden and I don’t believe we will see it this season.  Turner is now 30 but has only seen four years of a full-time workload.  Compare that to Frank Gore and Steven Jackson.  Both are just over a year younger than Turner but Gore has seen six seasons as a full-time back and Jackson has had seven.  Who do you believe is more worn down entering this season?  Turner has less than 1500 career carries, even less than Maruice Jones-Drew who is five years his junior.  While it is probably true that Turner’s best years are behind him, I still think he is not declining as rapidly as some fear, and that he can still have a good season and remain close to the level he’s been in the past.

So what is it that can put the Falcons back on top this year.  Well like the team their reasons for improvement are also mostly boring.  The Falcons have suffered few key losses this season.  The only notable loss being linebacker Curtis Lofton who jumped ship to the New Orleans Saints but the Falcons were able to replace him with former pro-bowler Lofa Tatupu on the cheap.  This “old” Falcons squad also suffered key injuries on the defensive line last season with the under-rated Jonatan Babineaux and big free agent signing Ray Edwards battling injuries all season.  The Falcons hope both players recover and give the team a dominant defensive line. They also added cornerback Asante Samuel for the low price of a 7th round pick.  The Eagles might have soured on him but it was not because of his play.  Samuel is consistently one of the top CB in the game and will give the Falcons a dangerous trio of himself, Brent Grimes and Dunta Robinson.

Another reason for optimism in Atlanta is decidedly less boring:  Julio Jones. Jones showed flashes of being an unstoppable force last season and if he can make the leap into the upper echelon of receivers this year then the Falcons will have to best WR tandem in the league, as Roddy White is a legitimate NFL star.  Combine that with Matt Ryan just entering the thick of his prime at 27 and this Falcons team has reason to believe they can add some flash to their passing game, and once again be on top of the Dirty South.

… and thats the Last Word.

Discussing the Possibility of the English Premier League Opening its Doors to Rangers and Celtic

Okay, before you all cast your first stones, please, hear me out…

As you undoubtedly already know, Rangers have been demoted to play in the 17th division of the Scottish Premier League.  Well, not the 17th, but you get the idea.  Basically they will be playing from the backyards of the Stuart and Burns’ estates.  They have fallen so far off the map that even Juventus (who were demoted to Serie B several years ago you will remember) is laughing.  A team who is not laughing, surprisingly, is Rangers’ most hated rivals – Celtic.

*Warning* – about to state the obvious – Rangers and Celtic need each other, and their rivalry drives their businesses.  Not only does the demotion of Rangers hurt their own fan base, players and staff, but also Celtic’s.  The rivalry is one of football’s oldest, and without checking Wikipedia for an exact “established on” date (hey, it’s good for something, don’t laugh!) I would venture to guess it’s one of the oldest rivalries in all of sports.  Fair to say?  The rivalry got more interesting when Celtic’s fan base forced the club’s management to vote against Rangers, leading the latter to be demoted to the fourth division – the equivalent of playing top-flight football in Madagascar (no offence  meant to readers from Madagascar).

Although this idea might sound convoluted, and I might even think so come morning, what if the English Premier League were to extend an invitation to Rangers and Celtic to play in the premiership?  Of course the chances are about as great as Pier Morgan not sounding like an ass every time he tweets something “#Arsenal”.  Hear me out…

Of course the schedule is set, teams are already preparing for the August 18th start, but we can always discuss “what ifs” such as these.  I’m not actually suggesting that this year the FA do an about-face and rearrange everything to include the two Scottish sides – that of course is impossible.  But how about for the 2013-14 season?  Imagine two very well-supported and powerful clubs joining the English league.  Would it not raise the league’s quality, financial stability and power?  Don’t we want to see the best calibre of footy possible?

Let’s just say for a minute that I took my idea to the FA, and they, of course, laughed in my face (also very likely), what if there was a “Plan B” where the two Scottish sides would play an annual tourney with teams not involved in Champions League play (as their schedules are far too strenuous already) or Europa?  Perhaps a Newcastle-Spurs-Liverpool-Everton-Celtic-Rangers tournament?  It would certainly make money, and isn’t that what football’s all about these days anyway?  I hope you can infer sarcasm.

Clearly my intent is not serious in nature, however, I believe it not to be so far-fetched either.  I am the first to admit the footballers play far too many games as it is, so it seems even to me to be counter-productive to add more matches to their dockets. However, you can’t disagree that from a strictly financial perspective involving the two SPL teams only makes sense. Does anyone agree? Anyone….anyone…any… Oh, nevermind.

Okay, cast your stones…… now!

…until tomorrow, lads.

 

Wanted: Goaltending; Jonathan Bernier looking for a net to mind.

Last week Jonathan Bernier, publically requested a trade from the Los Angeles Kings.  Its tough to blame Bernier for wanting out of LA.  The 2006, 11th overall draft pick is looking for a team where he can be a starter.  After dominating in the QMJHL, and then the AHL, he has spent the last two seasons as Jonathan Quick’s backup.  With Quick’s impressive 2011-12 season, even more impressive playoffs, Conn Smythe Trophy win, and new 10 year contract it is obvious that Bernier’s opportunities to start in Los Angeles are severely limited. He is a player with a ton of talent, and I believe he can be a starter in the NHL, he just needs an opportunity. Who is likely to give that opportunity?

Given the returns we have seen in the last two years for Semyon Varlamov and Anders Lindback in the last two years, the Kings should be asking for a pretty handsome return for the talented young goalie.  The Kings are under no obligation to grant Bernier’s request, and as such they will be looking for a good deal.  I believe that Dean Lombardi would rather have Bernier as insurance on his bench against a Quick injury, than trade him for scraps.  So knowing that the asking price may be significatnt; what teams out there are most in need of a goaltender and might be willing to trade for Bernier?

When it comes to Bernier, I think there are three main teams who could be looking at him, however this is further complicated by the fact that at least two of those teams are probably also trying to figure out what is going on with Roberto Luongo.

 

Toronto Maple Leafs:  The Leafs started last season with the inexperienced and unproven duo of James Reimer and Jonas Gustavsson.  This duo would implode, and poor goaltending was a huge reason for the Leafs late season crash. With Gustavsson in Detroit, The Leafs are currently looking at a duo of Reimer, and Ben Scrivens.  I don’t think Brian Burke would be wise to put all his eggs in the basket with these two young kids again, no matter how much healthier Reimer apparently is, or how well Scrivens played for the Marlies in the AHL playoffs.  While the Leafs need a goalie I think they will look for a more experienced one than Bernier, as entering the season with Bernier and one of Reimer/Scrivens still brings the same questions about inexperience, despite the fact that Bernier probably has the best pedigree of any of the three guys.  I think the Leafs are much more likely to go for Luongo or another experienced goaltending option.

 

Columbus Blue Jackets:  Columbus traded for Sergei Bobrovsky at the draft and still have Steve Mason.   I have a feeling that the Blue Jackets believe they have their goaltending tandem and are not in the hunt for Bernier.  I think this is a huge mistake.  Neither Bobrovsky nor Mason have ever shown that they are capable of being consistent NHL starters.  I think this team has the weakest goaltending in the entire NHL and they really have to do something if they want to avoid being a lottery team yet again.  However Columbus management has never shown the ability to quickly and adequately address the team’s problems.  Maybe they will prove me wrong, but I believe the Jackets will not be serious bidders for Bernier, and when you look at their goaltending situation, they really should be.

 

Chicago Blackhawks:  Corey Crawford could not follow up on his impressive rookie season, and regressed last year.  There are major questions about whether or not he is a capable number 1 goalie in the NHL.  Backup Ray Emery still has issues with his degenerative hip condition, especially when he plays too often.  The Hawks may want the more experienced Luongo, however picking him up would also require some creativity with the Salary Cap, and we all know that Luongo has never really impressed in the United Centre.  Bernier’s age also makes him a good fit for a team whose stars are Toews, Kane, Keith and Seabrook.  Bernier is of similar age to these players, and the core can grow together.  For these reasons the Blackhawks may see Bernier as a great fit for their team, and a guy who can battle with and surpass Crawford for the number 1 job.  I think the Hawks are the most likely destination for Bernier, if he is in fact traded.  The team also has a nice stash of forward prospects that they could offer to the Kings in this deal.

 

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