2012 - Page 112 of 114 - Last Word On Sports

Money Line NFL Weekend – Sunday Late Edition

Posted on January 15, 2012 by Ben Kerr

New York Giants @ Green Bay -7.5 Sunday 4:30 pm

I really struggled with what to do with this line. When it opened in the 8.5 to 9 range I thought it was a tinge too high and the Giants might be the right pick. I am somewhat surprised it came down from its opening and now sits just a shade over a TD. If you have been following my playoff picks it shouldn’t be shocking to you that I am going to side with the Packers.

I don’t know how much analysis I can add to this game that has already be said, and over-said all week long. We know the Packers are a powerhouse that always get their points at home. They have some injuries but reports are that all key players will be returning this week. We know the Giants can get their points too, and that the road never seems to affect Eli Manning’s play. We have also heard how the Giants have a ferocious pass rush that reminds every one of 2007 all over again.

Here are the two things that I think haven’t been hammered home enough:

The Packers were sleep walking through the regular season – I mean this. Their offense was obviously clicking on all cylinders but I never felt like it was difficult for them. They were ready for the post-season to begin in week 10. They didn’t need anymore reps. Eventually you stop challenging yourself. I don’t think they will have a problem renewing their intensity for a home playoff game against a team that knocked them out of the playoffs only three seasons ago. But the offense is not where I mean they were sleep walking, I am talking about the defense. Look at all the playmakers they have on this defense. From cornerback to linebacker to the defensive line this team has all-stars. This showed up this year in their turnover numbers. And maybe the yardage totals look ugly for this team but in this all-offense NFL the team scoring the most points is naturally going to give up the most yards, there is rarely such a thing as a shut down D anymore. (By the way the Packers scored the second most points all-time behind the 2007 Patriots) I think the defense shows up. They don’t shut down the Giants, but they put pressure on them. They get some sacks, they get some big hits and the cause a few turnovers. They do enough to give their offense a chance to win the game.

You simply cannot trust these Giants – Their big post-season stretch run included a comeback win in Dallas that the Cowboys gagged away, a horrendous 23-10 home loss versus the Redskins, a big victory over a massively over-rated Jets team and finally a beat down of the Cowboys at home in a game that I’m not totally certain the Cowboys knew was for a playoff spot. Last week they took care of the Atlanta Falcons at home pretty easily. This is the game that got all their momentum for this week rolling. I liked the win and how the Giants played but Atlanta is really not a good road team, and this game turned on all those 4th down failures for the Falcons. Without them this game is super tight.

I know the Giants were able to keep this game close back in week 13 when the game was played in New York but in Green Bay will be a different story. The Giants secondary is really poor and Rodgers is too good to let just four players on the Giants Dline control the game on him. The rested Packers offense will be able to spin the scoreboard and put pressure on the Giants to match them. In short, even though the game will be close it will be the Packers kind of game. And it is the Giants that will be the team to make the crucial mistakes. Against the Packers you just can’t make any.

The Packers have been by far the best team in the league since late last season. They have the best player in the league at the most important position in the league. If you feel like the Giants can keep this game close than just stay away because there is no reason to go against the Packers at this point. They are the baddest team in the league and they remind every one of it this weekend in fine fashion.

Packers 42 Giants 27

Money Line NFL Weekend – Sunday Early January 15th Early Edition

Posted on January 15, 2012 by Ben Kerr

In part one of Money Line Weekend I advocated that the spreads this weekend we’re pretty good but that I was certain that the favorites were the right choice and you might be better off avoiding the spread and grabbing the money line on a lot of these games. New England did their part of the job, but they also easily covered the spread. The New Orleans – San Fran game was ultra close, I think everyone knew it would be, the Saints lost but I stand behind my prediction. Sunday is when we are really going to make some dough anyways.

Houston @ Baltimore -7.5 Sunday 1:00 pm

Some games don’t require too much analysis. This is one of them. Baltimore is going to win, and the Baltimore money line is the pick of the weekend (Saints to cover was last weeks pick). The Texans have one massive problem going into this game – they can’t block the Ravens. Before their week 6 match-up we were pretty certain that Houston couldn’t block them. It made sense. Baltimore presents a unique challenge with their defensive line, massive players with the ability to move and massive tackling machines lurking right behind them at linebacker. Houston has a very specific scheme they run with their offensive line. Their linemen are not the biggest, their goal is to get their line, and the other teams Dline moving in one direction. Hopefully they find a seem, if not then they are looking to cut it back the opposite way of the action. This is a very successful scheme but it just doesn’t match up against some teams. Baltimore is certainly one of those teams. When the Texans ran for 3.7 yards per rush in their first match-up it was not a surprise. It was suspected they would struggle to block the Ravens and they did.

An illustration of how their scheme just did not work was the disparity between their two running backs. Ben Tate is a good back, Arian Foster is a great back. I love watching Foster more than any back in the league right now, I don’t know if any back’s talents lines up with his teams scheme quite like Foster does right now. He is a big back who has great patience waiting for a hole to develop, when he picks a hole he has a unique ability to explode through it for his size. But he is also a long strider and needs some time to get to his top speed. He fits the Houston blocking scheme perfectly. Tate on the other hand is a less developed runner, he has great physical ability so he uses it to hit the line hard and try to beat tackler’s to the spot. He doesn’t make defenders miss a the line of scrimmage but he does hit the line hard. In the Ravens game it is notable that Tate was the more effective runner. He carried 9 times for 41 yards, Foster got 15 carries but only 49 yards. Watching the game however you can see how hopeless the Foster runs were, waiting for holes to open up that never were going to, and how Tate was maximizing every run by hitting the line at full speed. It was a great example of how their entire blocking scheme did not succeed.

I don’t see why this would change now. In fact, it will get worse. In the week 6 game the Texans had a full power Matt Schaub at QB. When I re-watched this game I was shocked at how effective Schaub was. If you think the Texans struggle to block the Ravens in the run game the drop-back passing game is a whole other story. If this game begins and the Texans clearly cannot run the ball the Ravens will absolutely tee off on TJ Yates in the backfield. Schaub was effective because he was making ultra quick decisions to neutralize the pass rush, he also, typically, was extremely accurate, especially when throwing short. Yates is just not the QB that Schaub is. If the Texans are unable to cook up a way to get themselves the lead and they fall behind then this game could be over at half-time.

Look at this from Baltimore’s point of view. Baltimore is the happiest team in the league right now. The Steelers have been eliminated, this makes them happy because the Steelers are the team that has ended their season two of the last three years. The remaining teams in the AFC are the Ravens, Texans and Patriots. They are licking their chops for this game but they aren’t afraid of the Patriots next week either. They knocked the Patriots out of the playoffs two years ago on the Patriots home field. They will have confidence entering that game if they get there. The Ravens have to believe this is their shot at finally getting to another Super Bowl. Is this team going to let an inferior team with a rookie QB come into their stadium and steal this away from them. No way, their isn’t a scenario I can think of that doesn’t involve a Saints like 5 turnovers that has the Texans coming out on top.

So what case can we make for the Texans? Their D has been top of the league all season. They have very good, very quick pass rushers on the Dline and at Linebacker, this allows them to really attack the pocket. This rush was able to really limit the Ravens in the first match-up and after an opening drive TD they were able to force a bunch of turnovers. But I think the rush will really be limited by the fact the Ravens will know they don’t have to score a ton of points to win this game. It is more important for them to not turn the ball over early, keep running and eventually let that wear on the defense. Baltimore is much too physical for the Texans – who at heart I believe are still a soft team. This physicality will wear on them all game even if they are able to limit Flacco early.

Flacco may be enough for some to stay away from the spread here that see the Ravens needing to win by more than a TD. I get that. But in my mind Baltimore wins this game a solid 90-95% of the time and they are currently sitting as a 3.5-to-1 favorite. I like it.

Baltimore 27 Houston 7

Serie A Week 17 Review and Week 18

Posted on January 14, 2012November 4, 2021 by Frank Giuliano

Week 17 Review of Serie A

The Italian top flight championship blasted off last weekend into the new year of 2012 with a great statistic: all but two of the winning sides collected clean sheets scoring a total of 31 goals! Now who says that the Italians don’t score?! Internazionale FC is back in the title hunt where they belong with a very convincing 5-0 victory at home against Parma FC. Argentine forward Diego Milito scored a brace. The Nerazzurri now sit in 5^th place with 29 points, 8 points behind league leaders AC Milan and Juventus FC. The big upset took place in Siena where SS Lazio was pounded 4-1. The Biancocelesti are now 5 points behind the final Champions League position. Udinese FC crushed Cesena Calcio 4-1 at the Stadio Friuli in Udine and remains two points behind the league leaders. They also remain undefeated at home so far this season.

Now, to WEEK 18! Hopefully it will be as good as last week as there are some key match-ups. Firstly, AS Roma travels to Sicily to play Catania Calcio. This will be former boss Vicenzo Montella’s first game against the club for which he played and coached. The Lupi have shown good form of late and Coach Luis Enrique is very pleased with his players’ performances. ACF Fiorentina will host US Lecce who played very well against Juventus last weekend. Ever since Viola coach Delio Rossi changed the formation and instructed a new tactical system to his players, Fiorentina have looked like the Fiorentina of old from the days of Gabriel Batistuta! The Florence-based side is also riding on a high, fresh from a 3-0 victory against Novara. The Giallorossi of Lecce have a tough task ahead and will be without star left-back Djamel Mesbah who will be a healthy scratch. Rumor has it, he will be joining Italian giants AC Milan sometime this week. Genoa FC will welcome Udinese Calcio to the Marassi in Genova. The bianconeri of Udine will be eager to keep pace with the rest of the pack. Genoa is waiting on their new January signing Alberto Giliardino to make an impact in his first game at home with his new team. Juventus FC play at home against Cagliari. The Old Lady of Italian Football is the only undefeated team remaining in the Serie A. Odds are she will remain undefeated. Alessandro Matri is looking forward to haunting his old club. Furthermore, Bianconeri boss Antonio Conte is contemplating releasing his new addition in attack, Marco Borriello, with whom the Juve Ultras have a bone to pick due to the former Roma player’s ‘refusal’ to join the Old Lady back in 2010. Last weekend, the Ultras unfurled a banner during the match with Lecce, stating ‘Borriello, mercenary without honour or dignity.’ It will be interesting to see whether Conte decides to call up his new striker and see how the Ultras react. Another promising fixture of possible excitement will be SS Lazio taking on Atalanta at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome. The Laziali will be eager to quickly remove the memory of the terrible start to 2012 the side had last weekend. SSC Napoli will face Bologna FC at the San Paolo stadium in Naples. Lastly but not least of course, the BIGGEST DERBY IN THE WORLD: the DERBY DELLA MADONNINA, a.k.a the Milan Derby. AC Milan will host city-rivals, Internazionale FC. This is a huge game for both clubs. The Derby is wide open with both teams in very good form. An Inter win will officially place the Nerazzurri back in the title race once again. The Rossoneri will be looking to put an end to Inter’s 5-game winning streak and end their hopes of any title aspirations the Nerazzurri might have. There has also been a battle off the field to sign Machester City outcast for Carlos Tevez. Earlier this week, it looked like Milan pulled out of the race. But today, the news from England is that Tevez’s agent stated that Milan is still in the race to sign his client. In addition, there is some very good news out of the Milan camp this week as Italian international Antonio Cassano has been cleared to resume training. This is great news for Azzurri fans and the Diavoli faithful. Hopefully Cassano can get back sooner than expected. Italy coach Cesare Prandelli and Rossoneri boss Massimiliano Allegri are both eager to have the Bari-born striker back in their line-up. Enjoy Week 18 of the Serie A!

Here are the results for Week 17

Week 17		08 Jan 2012
Atalanta	0 – 2	Milan
Bologna	2 – 0	Catania
Cagliari	3 – 0	Genoa
Inter	5 – 0	Parma
Lecce	0 – 1	Juventus
Novara	0 – 3	Fiorentina
Palermo	1 – 3	Napoli
Roma	2 – 0	Chievo
Siena	4 – 0	Lazio
Udinese	4 – 1	Cesena

Week 18 Fixture list

Week 18 15 Jan 2012 (14.00 UK)
Catania	Preview	Roma(Sat 19.45)
Cesena	Preview	Novara
Chievo	Preview	Palermo
Fiorentina	Preview	Lecce
Genoa	Preview	Udinese
Juventus	Preview	Cagliari
Lazio	Preview	Atalanta(11.30)
Milan	Preview	Inter(19.45)
Napoli	Preview	Bologna(Mon 19.45)
Parma	Preview	Siena
FIXTURES
Week 19 22 Jan 2012
Atalanta	–	Juventus
Bologna	–	Parma
Cagliari	–	Fiorentina
Inter	–	Lazio
Lecce	–	Chievo
Novara	–	Milan
Palermo	–	Genoa
Roma	–	Cesena
Siena	–	Napoli
Udinese	–	Catania

FORZA MILAN!

And thats the last word!

Money Line NFL – Saturday Night

Posted on January 14, 2012 by Ben Kerr

Denver @ New England -13.5 8:30 Saturday

I wouldn’t believe anyone who tells you they know what is going to happen in this game Saturday night. Anyone who says this is a sure-fire Patriots blowout is the same person who said the same thing about the Steelers game last week. They haven’t revised their opinion about Tebow or the Broncos, but clearly they need to be taken seriously. Since I don’t know how it is going to play out either let’s lay out all the scenarios go from there:

The Surprise – Just the way the week 15 game started between these two teams, the Broncos start off running the ball and making swiss cheese out of the Pats D. They gain an early lead but this time instead of three first half turnovers they keep the run going. The Pats D, which has been their weak link all season never re-groups and the Broncos hold the lead the whole way. The Patriots are most comfortable playing with the lead and the game can get away from them when they are behind. It wouldn’t be shocking to see Denver continue to roll if they start off the game hot.

The Nail-biter – A variation of the surprise, the Broncos start hot but they never pull away enough from the Pats to put the game away. And we know what happens next. Once the Patriots have settled into a game their offense tends to pick it up and they have no problems with going back-to-back-to-back TD’s. One thing we know about the Patriots offense is that unless you can really put pressure in Brady’s face they are going to drop 30 points on you. Only a select few teams have been able to do this and based on week 15 Denver does not appear to be one of them, so Denver better plan on scoring a lot if they want to win this game.

The Blow-Out – This is what everyone seems to be expecting. The Patriots come out flying on offense and never look back. Because Bill Belichick is a genius and he figured out the Broncos offense and defense last game and now there is no stopping him. There is some truth to this, but can the putrid Pats D really hold down this team enough to make it a blow-out? Even if the Pats are playing great D they will still be leaking points. Isn’t it more realistic that the Patriots offense is putting up points, they are leading the game where they are most comfortable but their D can’t shut down anyone so Denver has still manages to get 9-13 points with just enough time left on the clock for…

Tebow Magic – Do you realize it has been four weeks since we have seen the pure unbridled version of Tebow Magic.
Last week doesn’t qualify. That was Tebow domination. What about the Tebow that doesn’t inspire confidence for 3
quarters and plays so poorly that even his biggest fans begin to wonder what it is they saw in him. But then come
the 4th he plays his heart out and there is no stopping him. Aren’t the Pats the perfect defense for this to happen
to? Belichick did seem to figure out the Bronco offense at the end of the week 15 game. But that doesn’t mean
the Broncos can’t make adjustments of their own. And once Tebow does start to gain momentum do the Pats have a
playmaker on defense who is going to step up and put an end to it?

So what scenario is going to play out?

I think it is a combination of the Blow-out and Tebow Magic. I really do believe the Patriots are ready for this game on offense and defense. Their offense knows the spots to attack and they are at home this time. I can’t really see them being held down. The defense was able to make some adjustments last game and really limit the Broncos. I think these things hold true to start the game and the Patriots will play most of the game with a lead. But there is just too much evidence with the Pats D at this point to think they can hold anyone down for an entire game. Buffalo and Miami jumped out to big leads on the Pats in weeks 16 and 17. In back to back weeks they let Washington and Indy put up 27 and 24 points on them and give them a game each time. This D just doesn’t have it any way you slice it.

And that’s what I can’t shake. Pretty much every Patriots fan feels either openly or in the back of their mind that this team can’t win a championship because of their defense. When you’re not good enough to win a championship you could lose at any time and you might not see it coming. When you have that looming over you there is no way you can grab a team as a nearly 2 touchdown favorite. Remember that last weekend’s Pittsburgh – Denver match was the most watched TV event since last year’s Super Bowl, and that this game is being played on Saturday night, do you really see this one being a blow-out that has viewer’s’ changing the channel? Me neither.

New England has the better offense and they are at home. They usually do well when seeing an opponent the second time. I think they come out hyped for this game and take an early lead. They might even be in total control of the game. But I can’t see them putting Denver away, they leave the door open just enough for Tebow Magic. That’s right, we are heading into the 4th quarter and the Patriots are up 24-9. No one in the stadium believe’s Denver has a chance but they do have the ball and a full quarter to play. Then it begins, a long TD drive for Tebow, suddenly the Denver D is rejuvenated, they get the big stop they need, another TD for Tebow, now it is practically a tie game. All the momentum in the world is going against the Patriots, but that is when it helps to have Tom Brady. I don’t believe the Patriots offense can be held down long enough for them to lose. New England is coming off a bye and Denver had to play Pittsburgh last week, Steelers opponents are only 4-11 in the week following that game. The Steelers are so physical they wear teams out and it shows up the next week. Several of those 11 losses were 4th quarter collapses by the Steelers previous opponent letting close games slip away. I can’t see the Denver D coming up with the big stops required against Brady when it is crunch time. Besides, if anyone is supposed to end Tebow Magic it has to be the evil empire right?

New England 31 Denver 22

Money Line Weekend – Saturday Afternoon Edition

Posted on January 14, 2012 by Ben Kerr

I am going to ruin all the suspense early so I might as well do it now. Every favorite is going to win this weekend, because that’s the only way it can happen. That’s what makes this money line weekend. Some of the spreads are damn near perfect and tough to bet on but that doesn’t have to stop you from grabbing the ML on the favorite.

Why are all the favorites going to win? Because it has been setting up that way since the very first day of the NFL season. From the time the NFL announced that there would be a shortened training camp every team with a veteran roster with little turnover was granted a competitive advantage, and the four teams that were the best teams all season will be the four teams that will face off in the league championship games. The Packers return most of the team that won last years Super Bowl. The Patriots and Saints return the core of teams that 14-2 last year and won the Super Bowl two years ago respectively. The Ravens are always in a struggle with the Steelers for top team in their division but grabbed the torch early this year when they owned the Steelers in week 1 and never looked back. I wrote about this last week, I followed the theory in my picks and it didn’t steer me wrong. I see no reason to change now. Not only were these the four best teams all season (you could argue the 49ers were rated higher than the Saints early in the year but no one truly believe they were as good as they were until their week 10 victory over the Giants, and then they got demolished two weeks later against the Ravens), but besides being the best, three of the teams have one other advantage. They have the three best QB’s in the league, in what happens to be the year of the QB. I would call that somewhat of an advantage. Not just because they are the best, but because they are far and away the best. The fourth team? Well they are the only team in the league to have a top defense nearly every year for the last 13 seasons. Read that again, 13 seasons! It is unusual to have a run of more than 3 years of top of the line defense. Baltimore has kept it going for 13. If there is one team without an elite QB that deserves to be in this all-star final four it may be Baltimore.

Is this anti-climatic? I don’t think so. As fans we should be delighted, the quality of play next week should be downright exceptional. So how do I get you to read the picks after that? Well the spreads are a whole different story…

NEW ORLEANS -3.5 @ SAN FRANCISCO – 4:30 Saturday

The Saturday games are absolutely ridiculous, and we start the weekend off with by far the closest match-up off the weekend. I buy their arguments but what about the fact that the Saints have been an absolute tank since their bye week? What about the fact that Drew Brees at this moment is playing better than anyone else in the league? Teams change throughout the season. What a team is in week one is almost certainly no what that team is in week 15, or even week 12 or week 8. The Saints had an embarrassing loss in St. Louis in week 8. Sean Payton knew the loss was embarrassing and it caused him to re-evaluate his team. Since that loss the Saints have been tougher and more ruthless.

Everyone making a case for the 49ers say the same thing about the Saints. They are unstoppable at home, but when you get them outside on the grass they just aren’t the same team. Is this true? No doubt New Orleans is a fast break offense that flourishes in the dome, but I hardly think they struggle when they are outside. Let’s examine some of their individual road games.

Three times this season they score 30 or more points on the road, they went 2-1: Week 1 @ Green Bay (loss), Week 5 @ Carolina (Win), Week 15 @ Minnesota (Win). I don’t think there is much to talk about here, they lost to Green Bay but you would hardly say the grass slowed down their offense. Carolina and Minnesota have two of the worst defenses in the league and the Saints get no props for scoring on them.

Two other times they lost on the road this season (Saints were undefeated at home): Week 6 20-26 @ Tampa, Week 8 21-31 @ St. Louis. Tampa really fell apart at the end of the year. But early in the year when they still had hope they played some quality games against their division opponents, as they tend to do. Not only did they knock off the Saints but the Falcons too. This is also the game in which Sean Payton suffered his sideline injury and New Orleans struggled from that point on. The St.Louis game is a no excuses game. They lost to an inferior team. No way to defend it. But this was probably the turning point of the Saints season – since this game they have 9 straight victories.

That leaves three games left to take a closer look at:

Week 4 @ Jacksonville 24-10 win – This might not seem like an impressive game but remember that Jacksonville had one of the top defenses in the league this year, especially early in the season. The week before this game they held Carolina to 16 points (in a rain storm) but also had a four point loss to Pittsburgh and an upset win over the Ravens due to their tough defense following this game. New Orleans actually moved the ball easily on the Jacksonville defense. They led off the game with back to back TD drives. New Orleans never found the end zone again after that. Jacksonville surrendered yards but forced 5 field goal attempts, New Orleans converted only 3. Brees also kicked in 2 INT’s. Because the Jaguars were able to hold New Orleans to Field Goal attempts the game remained close. But I would hardly say the Saints offense was sputtering. They were playing one of the top defenses in he league and they were only forced to punt once all game (sound similar to any recent Saints game you remember?).

Week 10 @ Atlanta 26-23 OT win – This was the game Mike Smith the Atlanta head coach decided to go for it on 4th and 1 in his own territory in OT. When the Falcons failed to pick it up they handed the Saints the win. Before that they game was very close at OT would indicate. The Falcons shut down the New Orleans run and were able to force 5 field goal trys just like the Jacksonville game, this time the Saints missed 1. There was a close hard-hitting division game and this game might play out closest to what we will see this Saturday against the 49ers.

Week 14 @ Tennessee 22-17 win – The Saints were held in check in this one but don’t forget that this was the first game the Saints played after losing Mark Ingram for the season and they hadn’t quite turned over the main rushing duties to Pierre Thomas at that point yet. Since, they have been rolling on the ground again – finishing second only to Carolina in running efficiency. Also, while the Saints were down 10-9 entering the 4th quarter each of their first three drives that resulted in Field Goals saw the Saints drive to atleast the 11 yard line before settling. Brees also went 36 for 47 passing for 323 yards – and he got the two TD’s he needed to win the game in the end. So the Saints were hardly shut down.

In each of these 3 games Drew Brees was able to throw for over 300 yards. The offense moved the ball up and down the field, but the reason the Saints failed to score 30 was due to turnovers and the defenses ability to force Field Goals. This may be the best the defense can hope for against the Saints. This is certainly the strategy the 49ers must hope for. If they can force Field Goals the game will always be within striking distance. While these games prove the Saints can be limited on the road I hardly think you can point to the road as a shut down factor for them.

Now that we have put the road worries to rest what other trends are emerging for this game? The Saints never faced one of the top three defenses this season but they did face some good defenses, mostly early in the season, and this may account for why their offense seemed to gain steam near the end of the year. They faced the defenses ranked 4-5-6-8 and 9th. In order: The beat Jacksonville (covered this), they handled 4th ranked Chicago easily at home dropping 30. They faced 5th ranked Atlanta twice and beat them both times. Eighth ranked Houston got tuned for a 40 burger, and we saw what just happened to 9th ranked Detroit. Also they beat down the Giants hanging 49 points on them. I think this is important because this is the 3rd team they faced who on defense try to control the game with their Dline – because the Dline has the ability to dominate their D has some success even if their coverage is not great in the back-end. You could say this for Houston and you could certainly say this for Detroit and New York. In each case the result was a beat down, even if each of these games was played in the Super Dome. You cannot beat Drew Brees with just Dline pressure. He is too quick with his decisions and release, and he doesn’t mind converting on 3rd and long yardage if you do happen to get a sack. You need great coverage on his receivers too or else the Dline pressure will not amount too much. I mention this because I see San Fran as a team that has had success this year by dominating the line of scrimmage on defense, while covering up for some less than great coverage in the back-end.

On the flip side, what kind of offenses, and more importantly Quarterbacks has San Fran been forced to face? When they played Ben Roethlisberger he was injured so we will toss that game aside. The rest of the games against quality QB’s tended to come early in the season like New Orleans games, with only one exception. In week two San Fran faced Tony Romo, they were able to knock him out of the game but when he returned he shredded the San Fran D and gained an 27-24 OT victory. Two weeks later they faced Micheal Vick and got down big early giving up 23 points.. But the D rallied and didn’t give up a point late leading to a dramatic 24-23 comeback victory. Two weeks after that San Fran travelled to Detroit and were able to contain the Detroit passing attack and escape with a 25-19 victory. At midseason they beat the Giants 27-20. Manning was able to drive the Giants down to the end zone late but San Fran ended the contest with an interception. Outside of those games the majority of the San Fran opponents came from the NFC West or the AFC North so you do the math on the quarterbacks they faced. As I stated earlier, my suspicion with the San Fran D is that their dominating Dline had hidden some average coverage in the secondary. And I do expect the Dline to be a factor on Saturday, but I don’t know if that alone is enough to stop Brees.

San Fran started the year extremely hot on defense and finished third overall behind only the Ravens and Jets. But in weighted defense they finished only 6th despite some weak offensive competition. In their last 6 games San Fran is 4-2. They beat down St. Louis twice, narrowly escaped with a road victory over Seattle, lost a close road game in Arizona, beat down an injured Steelers team at home and saw their offense evaporate in a loss in Baltimore. Hardly a murderers row. The Saints on the other hand have been virtually unstoppable in the last 9 weeks. Drew Brees is playing at such a high level that I don’t know if it matters if he is at home or on the road anymore.

All this analysis is nice and all but picking this game really comes down to one question for me. I know we haven’t talked about him yet but he looms over everything in this game, the question: Can you comfortably take Alex Smith in a playoff game against the hottest QB in the league knowing you are only getting 3.5 points?

My answer is no. We have years and years of evidence with Alex Smith. Now he is supposed to win the biggest game of his life while staring across the field at Drew Brees? I don’t buy it. I also think he was aided a lot this year by one factor, he was always playing on the tougher team. Jim Harbuagh has done a phenomenal job with the 49ers, going into every game it seemed like his team was a) much tougher than the other team and b) had the better coach. Unfortunately this weekend he is playing one of the other elite coaches in the league, and there is no doubt he has one of the toughest teams in the league too. The 49ers are good, but not good enough to pull away from the Saints. So when this game gets down to the 4th quarter and the game is still close and both teams know what the other team is trying to do who is going to line up and out execute the other team? Drew Brees will.

(Two conflicting bonus notes I have no idea what to do with: 1) Huey Lewis and the News is singing the national anthem to open up this game, how does San Fran lose with Huey Lewis and the News? 2) Alex Smith apparently gets a 1 Million dollar bonus if he wins this game. This makes me want to go against him with everything I have, I don’t know if Alex smith could be Alabama for a million bucks. I am going to call these factors a wash and stick with my original prediction.)

New Orleans 31 San Fran 17

They Are Who We Thought They Were: Raptors in 60 seconds or less…

Posted on January 12, 2012March 20, 2017 by Skip McGee

A few weeks down and the Raptors are exactly the team I thought they would be – showing little signs of improvement. At 4 wins and 7 losses, the current Raptors are barely watchable. I won’t write a long drawn out article on the positives and negatives. Rather, I’ll give you three things that piss me off about this team in 60 seconds or less.

“This is not a democracy on offence”: The first few weeks I’ve noted that Andrea looked hesitant with the ball. When he is hot, the Raptors role players (garbage) continue to forget about him. Guys like Anthony Carter, James Johnson, and even Leandro Barbosa are taking shots that should be passed to Andrea (or DeRozan). Casey has said the team’s offence is not a democracy, but that hasn’t proven true in crunch time. If Andrea is going to be successful and take the next step to elite status, he needs to become more aggressive in the fourth quarter. Does he warrant votes on all-star ballots? Perhaps, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t under-achieving – still!

Is DeRozan taking a step backward? So far this season I don’t like what I am seeing from Double D. Casey is trying to get him to become the defensive stopper but I see it negatively affecting his game. That said, I’ll acknowledge that we’re only eleven losses into the season and he’s playing for a new coach. My expectations are for him to hit the 20/8 level this season, which may be too lofty. At this point he is averaging one fewer FGA per game and with increased minutes over the last two his FG% has suffered thus far.

Johnson the new “Junk Yard Dog”: Granted, the guy shows a lot of hustle with some numbers to prove it. Unfortunately he’s getting carried away and taking far too many AWFUL shots. If Casey can get him to tone down his game and focus on being a hustle/steals/boards/lay-ups kinda guy he has a future with this team. Please, Raptor Nation; don’t develop blind love for a hustle guy that on most teams would be on the IR.

Through the first week couple weeks of the season the Raptors managed to win their home opener against the worst team in the NBA, followed by three consecutive losses. Since then it very much has looked the same – a victory followed by a few losses. Despite some decent play, the Raptors don’t have the guns to stick with even the mid-ranked teams in the league. While the future in 2012/2013 is bright(ish), watch the current Raptors games at your own risk depending on your tolerance level. Watching the games may cost you a new TV after you throw your converter through it, or worse, a night in jail after your neighbours call the police from listening to you scream loud enough to make them think you’re having a domestic dispute.

and that is the last word…

Is Phaneuf the Most Over-rated NHL Player?

Posted on January 12, 2012November 4, 2021 by Carl Mostacci

Sports Illustrated polled 160 NHL players, asking each who is the league’s most over-rated player. Most players picked Toronto Maple Leaf Captain Dion Phaneuf.

Who do you think is the NHL’s most over-rated player? Have your say here.

…and that is the last word.

NFL Wild Card Thoughts and Ramblings

Posted on January 11, 2012November 4, 2021 by Ben Kerr

I loved everything about Wild Card weekend. I loved watching Drew Brees dominate the Lions with complete control of nearly every play. I loved the way the Lions fought hard to keep the game close and didn’t seem to be affected by the Superdome. Detroit did unravel in the end because the Saints kept the pressure on them with their offense. But Detroit proved that as long as Calvin Johnson and Matt Stafford are on the field they will be a challenge for any team to stop. While New Orleans proved you will need to be nearly perfect to beat them. I loved how Marvin Lewis made everyone who picked the Bengals instantly regret their decision with that awful challenge almost exactly one hour into the game. The game was close at that point but did anyone really believe the Bengals were going to pull it out after that display, along with the second horrendous challenge before the half was out? Coaches do matter and picking Marvin Lewis on the road in the playoffs is never wise.

I loved how Atlanta definitively proved they are not on the level of the top teams in the NFC and they must make drastic changes if their want to seriously contend for a Super Bowl. I also loved how the Giants played just well enough to make everyone pause and say “maybe there is a chance they can hang with Green Bay next weekend.” It will be an interesting game. Most of all I loved how Tim Tebow took over the Pittsburgh game in and made big plays all day long. I loved this because it is exciting to watch Denver compete week to week and win vastly different ways. I loved it because it I like unconventional players who challenge the rhetoric that odd schemes cannot work in the NFL. Tebow won with passing but it was because of the threat of run his passing was so successful. Those who dismiss Tebow’s style of play are often those demanding that other non-contemporary designs cannot work. I loved it because John Fox succeeded while moving outside of his comfort zone and trying something that just might work, and this might lead to more coaches trying outside of the box ideas in the future. But mostly I loved it because for next year the question has shifted from “What are the Broncos going to do at Quarterback?” to “How are the Broncos going to build their offense around Tim Tebow?” Because there is no choice at QB now, it should not have taken a playoff win but this solidified his position. Tebow is the leader of the Denver Broncos, John Fox and company have to do all they can to surround him with the best players possible to complement his style. What kind of players should they try to get?

I think they have to continue to build the offense and turn it into a strength. They might be tempted to continue to build the defense and try to win more low scoring games with Tebow but I think their offense needs to be tailored to his strengths immediately. The Broncos are not where they need to be on defense but they do have some play-makers already. Von Miller was the second overall pick in the 2011 draft. He has been injured and not quite as effective lately but he is a dynamic pass rusher. He lines up opposite Elvis Dumervil another talented pass rusher. This is on top of two other recent high rounds picks DB – Rahim Moore and LB – Robert Ayers. They also start perennial pro-bowl hopefuls DJ Williams at LB and Champ Baily at CB. With the dynamic pass rush they currently feature everything on defense is made easier. The secondary does not have to cover as long and you do not need great players to look good in coverage. They should add to the defense where they can but the pass rush should allow them to get by no matter who is added. The draft should be used to improve the offense.

Several high picks have already been used recently on the offense. In fact their entire starting Oline has been drafted by the team in the last four years with the exception of guard Chris Kuper. The line has performed well this year and every starter is under 30 so it is doubtful they need to add anyone high in the draft. If left tackle Ryan Clady can return to his pre-injury form the line could really take off. There have also been several picks made at wide receiver. Demaryious Thomas was a first round pick ahead of Tim Tebow in 2010. Shifty WR Eric Decker was also added in through the draft and Eddie Royal although he is now a four-year vet is still only 25. The don’t lack much at receiver now but they could use a speedy deep threat who is able to stretch the field and can make a play on the ball in traffic. If this sounds a lot like Brandon Lloyd then you are right, I don’t understand why they dumped a player with such potential. Outside of this need they should continue to add tall wide receivers and could benefit from adding a massive pure possesion receiver with great hands. Tebow is often inaccurate on short and intermediate throws so having a player like this who can catach anything in his area code could really benefit the team, especially on 3rd downs.

So what are the Broncos lacking? They don’t feature the tight end much in the offense, no tight end caught even 20 passes all season, this needs to be corrected. The top offenses in football all feature dynamic tight ends; Jermichael Finley in Green Bay, Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in New England and Jimmy Graham in New Orleans. And for the Broncos the tight end position should be critically important, and they should be looking for more than just one. Having a multiple tight end set with pass catching tight ends allows an offense the ability to pass and run effectively from the same sets. It keeps the defense off-balance, and for the Broncos who will be looking to feature the run it would be a huge advantage. Right now when the Broncos bring the tight ends on the field the defense know’s that only the one WR in the route can hurt them because the TE’s won’t be catching anything deep. If the Broncos can change this then they can spread the field, be more effective in play action and also open up the running game.

It is the running game that needs to be the focus of the Broncos draft. They already have yo
ung wide receivers to grow with Tebow. They need an explosive back who can carry the bulk of the load in the offense. I know the Broncos already have injured high round pick Knowshon Moreno and he had some success this year but I have never been sold on him. He is indecisive and lacks power, I am not sure he is a great fit for all the inside run’s the Broncos feature. However I do think he can have a roll on the team as a 3rd down back because he is a terrific pass catcher. Fortunately for the Broncos running backs often slip down the board on draft day and sometimes they are virtually ignored in the first round. In 2011 only one running back went in the first round, in 2010 and 2009 three each were taken. You also don’t need to take a back in the first round to find a good one. Very good running backs can be had in the later rounds. The Broncos must identify a back who runs with power, who doesn’t mind cutting up field and smashing into the first tackler he sees. This player must also have speed so the Broncos can create big plays on the ground as well.

They should not stop with one back. They should aim to have entire backfield of different style runners who can be called upon in different situations. Think like the Patriots of Saints. The Saints have Mark Ingram, Pierre Thomas, Corey Ivory and Darren Sproles. Ingram gets the bulk of the carries (when healthy), Thomas and Corey are straight ahead runners, Sproles is the quick back who can make anyone miss. Because all four can play all four remain fresh all game. This would be another advantage for the Broncos who play in the mile-high air and have been able to wear teams down at home this season. I think it is important for them to find a small explosive player in the mold of Darren Sproles. Having a player like this will add an instant big play element to their offense. The key to finding a player like this is not to find the fastest or most elusive player but to find the elusive player who can also has enough core power to run straight ahead when needed. You’re only move as a runner cannot also be to try to go around the defender. A full set of quick running backs to call upon could make the Broncos running attack deadly and allow the deep ball to open up even more.

I look forward to watching the Broncos search for players to add to their offense. Tebow has been effective this year and has clearly captured the Broncos locker room. I cannot wait to see how effective he can be in an offense with play-makers tailored to his strengths.

Will Slow And Steady Win The Race?

Posted on January 10, 2012November 4, 2021 by Carl Mostacci

The Hamilton Tiger Cats officially introduced George Cortez as their new Head Coach today. Cortez has lots of CFL experience both as an offensive co-ordinator and quarterbacks coach. He has been on four winning Grey Cup teams, all with the Calgary Stampeders. He also has other CFL stops in Ottawa, Saskatchewan and Montreal. The past two seasons he was the quarterbacks coach for the NFL’s Buffalo Bills.

I’m surprised Cortez left the more secure, yet difficult to get into, circle of the NFL coaching ranks. But I’m guessing the Ti-Cat deal was too good to refuse. Plus I’m sure Cortez was looking for a challenge and happy to land his first opportunity to be a head coach. In Hamilton, Cortez will be reunited with quarterback Henry Burris. Both men worked together, winning the 2008 Grey Cup in Calgary when Burris was signal-caller there, and Cortez was the offensive co-ordinator.

The Cats were the last CFL team to hire a head coach for 2012, behind Toronto and Saskatchewan. While I was admittedly becoming quite concerned, I feel they made an excellent coaching hire. They avoided hiring a recycled CFL coach, which many teams have been guilty of in the past. Plus they hired a guy with plenty CFL experience, and chemistry with their newly signed quarterback. Look for both Cortez and Burris to inject some life into a Ticat offensive that had become very bland, boring and predictable under previous offensive coordinators Khari Jones and Mike Gibson.

With former Ti-Cats offensive and defensive coordinators joining the Roughriders, the aforementioned Khari Jones and Corey Chamblin assume the roles of head coach and quarterbacks coach respectively. Cortez will have to fill these voids soon. Look for former Winnipeg Blue Bomber defensive co-ordinator Tim Burke to be a stong candidate to perform the same role in Hamilton. As for the offensive side of the ball, Cortez announced that, “I’m gonna run the offence for the first year for sure”. (courtesy @scratchingpost).

On a side note, Bob O’Billovich was promoted to Vice President of Football Operations. It is also anticipated that Danny McManus will also receive a promotion, but it is only speculation as to what it is. My hope is that Danny Mac assumes the role of quarterbacks coach, learns the offensive schemes expected by Cortez, and takes over that role for 2013.

Even though the Cats took their time hiring their head coach, and had to wait for the Bills season to end officially, in order to do so, they made a great move, and now I’m even more excited for the 2012 CFL season.

What do you think of the Cats coaching hire?