NFL Week 10: Win, Spread, Over/Under and Game Score Predictions

Welcome to another week of The Sports Savant NFL Picks, Week 10 Edition!

Week 9 was an interesting week of very close matchups.  So close, in fact, that I took a number of underdogs to win games; more than I can ever remember taking in a single week.  The thought going in was that I would either end up a genius at the end of Sunday’s games or I would have a miserable week of picks.  It turned out neither were the case as I had an above average week with about half of my underdog predictions panning out.  Others were very close to working, including the biggest upset pick, Dallas winning over Atlanta in the Georgia Dome.  But Atlanta made a great 4th quarter comeback and spoiled that Savant revelation.

It’s never a bad week when I come out above .500 with my spread picks and coming in at 8-6 was good a solid result for my friends who use my picks to gamble.  The over/under was below par, as it can often be as fickle as it is, but if you like to play with fire, my over/under picks still stand as some of the best against anyone this year in the aggregate of 2012.

The real nice surprise behind my Week 9 picks was the addition of four perfect team score predictions, but even more impressive is what was my third perfect game score in the last season and a half of NFL game prognostications.  For the first time in 2012, I nailed a perfect game score, the 31-17 final between Green bay and Arizona.  If you can get the right odds on picking a perfect game score, I would highly suggest playing some of my exact score picks.  I pick a perfect game score well above the expected probability.

Before we look at my picks for Week 10, let’s take a look at how last weeks picks shaped up and my overall records for the 2012 NFL season…


Winner: 9-5  
Winner w/ Spread: 8-6
Over/Under: 5-7-2
Trifecta: 4
Strikeouts: 3
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 4 (Green Bay, Arizona, Miami, Tennessee)
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1 (Arizona @ Green Bay)
*2012 Overall Record*
Winner: 86-46 (.652)
Winner w/ Spread: 64-65-3 (.496)
Over/Under: 69-57-5 (.543)

Trifecta: 34
Strikeouts: 24
Perfect Team Score Predictions: 17   [Week 1]: New England  [Week 2]: Indianapolis, San Francisco [Week 3]: Chicago, Washington, New York(A)  [Week 4]: Cleveland, Philadelphia  [Week 5]: Green Bay, Seattle, San Diego  [Week 7]: St. Louis, Tampa Bay  [Week 9]: Miami, Tennessee, Green Bay, Arizona
Perfect Game Score Predictions: 1   [Week 9]: Arizona @ Green Bay
NOTE: The team with a negative number in parenthesis “(-3)” next to their name is the favorite to win the matchup and the number represents how many points the favorite has to score more than the underdog to count as a winning bet.  The over/under for the game is represented by a number in parenthesis with the letters o and u “(o/u 46)”.  The number represents the amount of points you are wagering whether or not the two team’s combined score will be in excess of or short of.  Official betting lines courtesy of
LOCKS: Games that have a “*LOCK*” logo next to the score are my spread lock picks of the week.  I choose four games each week that I feel will be a lock to win the spread bet.  If I have an underdog winning against a favorite and it is a *LOCK* pick, it means it is a lock that the favorite will not cover the spread, not a lock that the underdog wins the game.

Don’t forget to visit to check my game picks or right here on at The Sports Savant channel.  And now for my Week 10, NFL picks…

Jacksonville v. Indianapolis(-3.5)  (o/u 42.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Jacksonville to win ~ 21-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Buffalo @ New England(-11)  (o/u 52)
Savant Spread Pick: New England and the points to win ~ 42-23 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Cincinnati @ New York(N)(-4)  (o/u 48.5)
Savant Spread Pick: New York(N) and the points to win ~ 26-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

San Diego @ Tampa Bay(-3)  (o/u 47.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Tampa Bay and the points to win ~ 27-23
Over/Under Pick: Over

Carolina v. Denver(-4)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: Denver and the points to win ~ 29-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Tennessee @ Miami(-6)  (o/u 44)
Savant Spread Pick: Tennessee with the points; Miami to win ~ 26-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

Oakland @ Baltimore(-7.5)  (o/u 46)
Savant Spread Pick: Baltimore and the points to win ~ 26-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

New Orleans v. Atlanta(-2.5)  (o/u 53.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Atlanta and the points to win ~ 30-24
Over/Under Pick: Over

Minnesota v. Detroit(-2.5)  (o/u 47)
Savant Spread Pick: Detroit and the points to win ~ 31-21
Over/Under Pick: Over

New York(A) @ Seattle(-6)  (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Seattle and the points to win ~ 19-10 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Under

Philadelphia v. Dallas(-1.5)  (o/u 44.5)
Savant Spread Pick: Dallas and the points to win ~ 23-20
Over/Under Pick: Under

St. Louis @ San Francisco(-11.5)  (o/u 38.5)
Savant Spread Pick: San Francisco and the points to win ~ 29-10 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over

Houston @ Chicago(-1)  (o/u 41)
Savant Spread Pick: Houston to win ~ 19-17
Over/Under Pick: Under

Kansas City @ Pittsburgh(-12.5)  (o/u 42)
Savant Spread Pick: Pittsburgh and the points to win ~ 31-16 *LOCK*
Over/Under Pick: Over