After writing my predictions for the 2012 Lions and Bears, I have spent four days trying to come up with a preview for the Packers and Vikings without even thinking of a single sentence. The problem is that these teams are so cut and dry. No matter what happens this season the Packers are a double-digit win team and the Vikings will be on the outside looking in come playoff time. These are the facts of the case, and they are undisputed.
The Packers have the absolute best player in the league at the most important position. It almost doesn’t matter what happens with the rest of team, with Rodgers under center the Packers have a chance to beat any team, any day. The Vikings on the other hand have second year QB Christian Ponder. Much like I wrote earlier in the week about the AFC South’s young QB, Ponder is battling just to find a job in the NFL. He has a big arm and quick feet, but nothing else about him reminds you of an NFL QB. His pocket presence is a real problem for the Vikings as it forces them to find ways to get him outside of the pocket to an area where he is comfortable making throws.
Mike McCarthy is a formidable offensive coach who has any play he can think of at his disposal because he works with a QB who has no limitations. McCarthy has built an unstoppable offense in Green Bay and they show no signs of slowing down. Vikings coach Leslie Frazier’s first year on the job, on the other hand, was less decisive.The Vikings almost started the year off strong taking fourth quarter leads against their first four opponents before ultimately failing to close out the games. After that the Vikings’ early success came to a grinding half. Frazier hails from the Tony Dungy coaching tree and his sideline presence reminds of another former Dungy disciple: Jim Caldwell. My early read on Frazier is that he brings little offensive innovation to the table and he did not produce results for the Vikings defense in 2011 either.
Speaking of defense, there has been much debate this offseason about whether or not the Packers defense can improve in 2012. I will end the debate now. It doesn’t matter. The Packers defense was not strong in 2011 and they went 15-1. The Packers overall are 31-9 in their last 40 games. The defense being good or not is just the difference between them winning 13 games or 11 games. It really doesn’t matter.
On the Vikings side of the ball, we know their defense isn’t good. It is a veteran defense that has been slipping each of the last few seasons and they have failed to add enough talent to change the tide. In 2011 the Vikings led the league in sacks and still finished 26th in passing yards allowed per game. But again, it doesn’t matter. The defense will never be good enough to make up for the lack of an offense.
Look for the Packers to be a lock for the playoffs, and the Vikings to be a lock for, well, several rounds of early golf.
You can see all of my predictions and analysis by visiting my column, “3rd String NFL”.
