As August’s end draws near, the battle for the opportunity to play in the playoffs intensifies significantly. In a league with a 162 game schedule, “must win” games can add some much-welcomed drama and desperation – a recipe for excitement. As we approach the end of the season, an increasing number of games meet this definition.
September of 2011 provided baseball fans with one of the most exciting conclusions in the history of the sport and demonstrated just how quickly things can change in the final month of the regular season. With the welcomed addition of two more wild card spots, one can only expect at least a similar level of excitement. Yesterday we looked at the NL, now let’s take a look at the three top contenders from the American League.
American League
1) Tampa Bay Rays
Why they WILL make it:
One word…Pitching! The Rays have one of the lowest earned run averages, lowest opponents’ batting averages and lowest WHIP in the American League. They also hover around the top of the AL in strikeouts, saves and quality starts. The Rays posses the type of starting rotation that gives them an opportunity to win night after night. Add to that a “lights out” bullpen and you’ve got yourself a playoff bound operation.
Why they WON’T make it:
The Rays have struggled with the lumber. Of the fourteen American League teams, they rank 12th in team batting average and 12th in OPS.
X factor(s):
Joe Maddon has proven himself. He is cunning, calm, intelligent, and somehow gets the most out of his teams no matter how small the payroll. He has managed to find ways to score enough runs to win games by taking his athletic lineup and turning ball games into track meets (AL lead in stolen bases) thus getting the most out of the few hits they can scratch together. The returns of Evan Longoria and Luke Scott should provide enough pop to keep them securely in playoff contention.
Maddon and the core of the Rays have been in tight playoff races before. This is not new territory for them. Expect to see them in October.
2) Baltimore Orioles
Why they WILL make it:
The “big fly” and the bullpen. The O’s hit the ball out of the park. Top five in the AL in home runs and also in saves. The home runs get them the lead and the bullpen keeps it. Simple.
Why they WON’T make it:
The O’s starting rotation is not about to shut anyone down. Are they going to continue to out-slug everyone? They might, but it’s tough to do so day in day out. Where are the wins going to come from if the bats go cold?
The Detroit Tigers and Oakland A’s are right on their tail. Detroit has one of the softest September schedules of the contending teams. Two series with the Indians, two with the Twins and a series with the Royals. This schedule gives them a great opportunity to take over Baltimore’s spot. The Tigers have a pitching staff that resembles the Rays. They aren’t anywhere near the top of the AL in home runs but don’t let that fool you. They play in a very pitcher-friendly ball park thus explaining the lack of home runs. However they are in or near the top five in the AL in team batting average, OPS and RBI’s.
Why won’t the Orioles make the playoffs? Because the Tigers will…Or the White Sox will if the Tigers win their division.
X factor(s):
Consistency.
The O’s got off to a fast start, and most observers did not believe it would last. While they have fallen a couple spots in the AL East standings, they are still firmly entrenched in the wild card race. They held on for five months. They only have to hold on for one more, but the reality is that they are slowly coming back down to earth.
3) Oakland Athletics
Why they WILL make it:
The A’s have been winning with pitching so if they are going to make the playoffs the pitching staff will be what puts them there. They sit second in the American League in team ERA and they are in or around the top five in quality starts, opponents’ batting average, WHIP and saves.
Why they WON’T make it:
The Athletics unfortunately do NOT score runs. They hover around the bottom of the AL in this category with such teams as the Seattle Mariners and Kansas City Royals. Like the Rays, The A’s steal a lot of bases in an attempt to get the most out of the few hits they manage to put together.
If pitching is what is going to catapult the A’s into the playoffs, that is going to be a problem. Bartolo Colon was recently caught using a banned substance and the likely result is that he will not factor in the A’s playoff run. The A’s would need all of their pitching to get in. Without Colon, the playoffs are a becoming more unlikely.
X factor(s):
In the final month of the season, the A’s play eleven games at home and seventeen games on the road. Like most teams, the Athletics are significantly better at home. They will need all the help they can get to get a wild card spot and this schedule doesn’t help.
My wild card picks:
Tampa Bay and either Detroit or Chicago (whichever of the two does not win the division).
There you have it – why some of these AL contenders will make it, and what stumbling blocks they might run into.
Feel free to leave your picks in the “Comment” section below, and don’t forget to check out my NL wild card predictions.
