Before the playoffs begin I think it helps to remind ourselves about the basic ideas we had heading into this season. This was the abbreviated season, short camps, less hitting, less recruiting time, and maybe most importantly less time to evaluate your own team and find out what your needs were (which made it really hard for some teams to improve). There were three popular thoughts heading into the season and like most things in the NFL the general consensus was wrong. The first was that moving the kickoffs up 5 yards was going to ruin the return game. Clearly this had an impact on touchbacks, but early on the impact on returns themselves was minimal – still plenty going for long distance. The changes have mostly gone unnoticed, I hadn’t even thought about the kick-off rule for 8 weeks until I sat down to write this. The second thought was that because of the shortened practice time offenses were going to struggle. Yes, that is actually what we thought. Instead it was the defenses who suffered because the rules make it easy to play pitch and catch with a receiver and hard to cover anyone on the field. Offense is easy, it is the defenses that need to be precise and complex just to stop anybody. While passing numbers in general are rising I don’t think we will see the extreme numbers put up by several QB’s this year again for a few seasons – offenses did cool somewhat after he unbelievable start. The one thing that was bang on was the prediction that the veteran teams with the most continuity would be the teams best prepared for the season. This couldn’t have been more correct. The #1 seed in the AFC last year and last years Super Bowl Champion Packers grabbed to the two #1 seeds this year. Playoff mainstays Baltimore and Pittsburgh dueled it out all season for the #2 spot. The two division winners in the AFC not to make the playoffs this season were ravaged by injuries. The Colts lost Peyton, Manning, and Peyton Manning – these multiple losses were too much to overcome. The Chiefs we’re probably headed for a decline anyways, but they still lost their 2 of their best players in the first few weeks of the season (Jamall Charles, Eric Berry) and saw a host of other important injuries including losing their starting QB. This is what led to the rise of the Texans who battled it out all year with New England, Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
Despite my earlier ramblings about the power teams I think this is actually a very tough opening round to call. I am going to try to stick to my theory as close as possible and see how it works out. I just covered Cincy-Houston, but I also think the Giants game and possibly the Broncos game will be close. This game will not. Disregard what I said about the last game, totally ignore what I am going to write about Sunday’s games, I don’t care. Just listen to me on this one. New Orleans is going to spank Detroit today. Here are way too many reasons why:
Detroit is not a good team. Wait, I have to say it again, Detroit is not a good team. Look at them lately, or all season really. They have been good at late game comebacks, mostly coming against less than playoff calibre teams. They have never been able to stop any good offense or even hold them under 30 points. The best team they beat all year was either Dallas (8-8) who they trailed by 3 TD’s and came back (impressively) to beat, or San Diego, who are really a fraud themselves and Detroit laid the smack down on them. Other than that their best game against a good team has to be the thanksgiving game against Green Bay where their D looked good early. But even this game was a no doubter for Green Bay and it had every advantage tilted in Detroit’s favour. Detroit looked like they had a good defense early in the season but it hasn’t been the same lately. Giving up that many points to Matt Flynn in a game they needed to win has to be a red flag. Plus the cornerstone of their defense is their Dline. Just ask the Giants how Drew Brees can neutralize a defensive line. On offense they look like a really good team when throwing to Calvin Johnson and they look like a poor team throwing to anyone else. They are in Shot Gun all the time which puts pressure on Matt Stafford to make every throw perfect. Outside of a few individuals there is nothing good about this team.
New Orleans on the other hand is laying the smack down on everyone lately. Their offense is clicking, run game and pass game. Brees looks like the best QB in the league at the moment. They already beat Detroit 31-17 earlier this season. Detroit was coming off extra long rest after thanksgiving and New Orleans had leads in that game of 17-0 and 24-7 – those late game comebacks again. New Orleans has Drew Brees and the baddest offense on the planet at the moment, the one team you do not want to face is New Orleans in the Superdome. And Detroit is quite likely just a one year wonder.
The only reason to not love New Orleans is fear. Fear that New Orleans had a playoff let down last year. Fear that New Orleans has shown themselves capable of having really bad games (St. Louis) or bad offensive performances (Tennessee). Fear that New Orleans defense just isn’t that good and even if New Orleans scores 35 Detroit can score 31. Well that’s true. The Fear is real. That’s why this game isn’t a lock. New Orleans could give up 40 and lose, or they could give up 35 and not cover. But that fear shouldn’t stop anyone from grabbing this great value. New Orleans is at home and it is playoff time, when they grab that lead (which they will) they are not going to stop scoring.
More Detroit because I know you aren’t convinced yet – The only good performance they had on D against a good offense was the week 16 game against SD, holding them to 10 points. I don’t know how it happened. Remember, this Detroit team started the season 5-0, since then they are a 5-6 teams. Let’s break down all of their wins. Playing the AFC West is the only reason they are in the playoffs. They went 4-0 against KC-OAK-DEN-SD. In their division they went 3-3 (while beating MIN twice), against the NFC South they went 2-2 (beating, you guessed it, CAR-TBAY) their strength of schedule games we’re @ DAL (win) and home for SF (loss).
Final tally: 0 teams with a winning record beaten (0-5). Three wins in three try’s versus 8-8 teams. Beat every bad team they faced, while there is something to be said for that, they were rarely impressive in doing so. Two massive blow-out victories (KC and @DEN). 0 heartbreaking losses. 2 close losses – SF and @ GB second string. Three very late, very large comeback victories @MIN week 3, @DAL week 4, @OAK week 15. So they have shown the ability to rally on the road, but those are not good teams.
If you throw out week 17’s 45-41 loss @ GB than Detroit failed to score 20 points in each of their losses. Which is also their only games against good teams(the non-winning record team they lost to was CHI, won first time 24-13, lost second time @CHI 37-13). They put up 30 or more in 6 of their 10 wins. This is how they pad the stats.
They picked on the weak teams all year and even the weak teams almost knocked them off a couple of times. Only their offense is prolific when playing weak teams so they were able to rally. You know who Detroit is? A poor man’s version of the early 2000 KC Chiefs. They put up all the points in the world and look so great but when it comes time to get down to business against a real team they are nowhere to be found. And like the Chiefs they are propped up by too many games against bad teams.
New Orleans is a great team, Detroit is an average team. Think about this, Detroit is probably not even a playoff team next year, they are only in because of that 5-0 start. You are going to take this team to hang with New Orleans? They are the hottest team in the league right now. They have an all-time QB playing in a great offense. This is the foundation of the Super Bowl champion in 2009. When looking at the spreads you always have to double-check the QB when needing to cover points. No one is more consistent than Brees, who is playing at the peak of his powers. So the only thing left to worry about is Detroit’s late game comebacks. Thankfully, this is the playoffs. New Orleans is out for blood and they are not going to let this game slip away on them. As I said when they get the lead they are going to extend the lead.
Still not convinced? Ok, let’s go the more conventional route just to make sure we include everyone in this money making fiasco. 3 more points.
New Orleans won the Bowl in 09, last year they made the playoffs as a wild card but had to go on the road to a notoriously tough stadium (Seattle) and had no run game because they were using their 27th string running back. Without that string of injuries maybe New Orleans is the back to back defending champ right now. Now Detroit is supposed to go on the road to a notoriously tough stadium with no run game because they are using their 4th? 5th? string running back and beat a vastly superior team than the Seahawks? For some reason I don’t see it. Even if these were even teams the fact Detroit is travelling to a loud dome with no running game would be cause for concern.
Detroit offense starts game really slow and is also very streaky. You just can’t do this again New Orleans. They scored 3 TD’s and a FG on their first 5 possessions against Detroit the first time they played. If you give New Orleans the ball back you have to assume they are scoring. Their offensive consistency is ridiculous.
New Orleans doesn’t have a good defense, I know this. But they do have a creative co-ordinator. And when he knows a team he is usually able to piece a game-plan together to limit that team’s success. New Orleans never gives up that many points in division games because they know those teams. Now that they have seen what Detroit has got I think they will be able to hold their own against the Detroit defense.
I say again, New Orleans doesn’t have to beat Detroit, but they really should. And you get to side with Drew Brees, possibly the surest thing going right now. Like my buddy likes to say, a bargain at any price.
New Orleans 42, Detroit 17
