Historically, the US Open is the Slam with the most upsets. The main reason is its place late in the calendar, which means players often arrive tired after nearly eight months of competition. Therefore, it’s quite common to see an unexpected player make a deep run, even coming through qualifying.
In recent years, this trend has held true, and it’s no surprise that in modern tennis, every single minute spent on court matters. Winning in straight sets or in five sets makes a huge difference and conserving energy and reaching the next round with more rest than the opponent is crucial.
In fact, there’s a statistic that shows this clearly: players who win a five-set match often lose in the following round–unless, of course, they’re facing another player who also survived a five-set battle, in which case someone has to win. Throughout the tournament, such grueling matches play a major role.
A Look at the Numbers
At the 2025 US Open, nine first-round matches went to five sets. Among those nine winners, four faced each other in the second round (Jenson Brooksby vs Flavio Cobolli and Benjamin Bonzi vs Marcos Giron). Of the other five, four lost in the second round (Tristan Schoolkate lost to Alexander Bublik, Roman Safiullin to Felix Auger-Aliassime, Francisco Cerundolo to Leandro Riedi, and Brandon Nakashima to Jerome Kym). The lone exception was Daniel Altmaier, who, after defeating Hamad Medjedovic in almost five hours (4h49m), pulled off another five-set win against Stefanos Tsitsipas, though he was close to losing as he saved a match point in the fourth set.
In the second round, nine more matches went to five sets and once again, four players faced each other in the third round (Kamil Majchrzak vs Riedi and Bonzi vs Arthur Rinderknech). The third-round pattern was similar: four losses (Tommy Paul to Bublik, Ugo Blanchet to Tomas Machac, Kym to Taylor Fritz, and Raphael Collignon to Jiri Lehecka). The only exception was Jan-Lennard Struff, who stunned Frances Tiafoe.
Notably, three players earned a second five-set victory: Altmaier (over Tsitsipas), Cobolli (over Brooksby), and Bonzi (over Giron). What happened next? Altmaier retired against Alex De Minaur (trailing 1–2 in sets), Cobolli retired against fellow Italian Lorenzo Musetti (down 6–3 6–2 2–0), and Bonzi lost in four sets to compatriot Rinderknech. There was another third-round retirement: Majchrzak, in the first set against Riedi.
In the fourth round, two matches went to five sets, but the trend continued. Andrey Rublev beat Coleman Wong in five, only to lose in the quarterfinals to Auger-Aliassime. Bublik did the same against Paul before falling to Jannik Sinner.
What about 2024?
Some might call it a fluke, but looking back at 2024 shows similar patterns. Nine players won their first-round matches in five sets, but only two advanced further: one was a head-to-head between two of those nine, with Juncheng Shang beating Roberto Carballés Baena.
Ironically, the other was Dan Evans, who didn’t just play a regular five-setter in the first round. Against Karen Khachanov, he spent five hours and 35 minutes on court, playing the longest match in tournament history. In the second round, however, he defeated Mariano Navone, who had earned his first-ever hard-court win in the first round… against Altmaier.
In the second round, five matches went to five sets. Aside from Rublev and Lehecka (who played each other in the following round), all the winners lost their next match. Another exception came in the third round: Tiafoe beat Ben Shelton in five sets, then defeated Alexei Popyrin and Grigor Dimitrov (who had also come off a five-setter) before falling to Fritz in the semifinals. How did Fritz win that semifinal? In five sets. And what happened in the final against Sinner? He lost in straight sets.
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
