The WTA Italian Open rolls on, and while several of yesterday’s picks have paid out, there are still matches to play. If you enjoyed any of my picks yesterday, leave a comment to let me know how I’ve helped. Here are my picks for the continuing action in Rome.
WTA Italian Open
Haddad-Maia – Bouzkova: Time 11:00
H2H: 4-0
Beatriz Haddad-Maia is 4-0 in her matches against Marie Bouzkova, and all matches were played between 2022-2024. For her career, Haddad-Maia is 204-103 on clay courts, and Bouzkova is only 76-56 on the surface. That all said, when you look at Haddad-Maia’s recent play, things begin to fall apart. She’s 1-9 in her last ten matches, and Bouzkova is 5-5. She’s going to feel much better about her chances because Haddad-Maia is 3-13 on the year.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Haddad-Maia as the underdog, and I agree. Nothing about her recent form suggests she’s ready to focus on picking up wins. Bouzkova is only 10-8 on the year, but she’s not below .500 on any surface. It’s going to be hard to turn down Haddad-Maia at 2.3, but I think the real value is Bouzkova at 1.73, only available at Unibet. Until Haddad-Maia proves she’s ready to answer at a high level, the smart money is on Bouzkova.
That being said, Bouzkova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Bouzkova winning @1.73 @Unibet
Pavlyuchenkova – Boulter: Time 15:30
H2H: 1-0
Anastasia Pavyluchenkova and Katie Boulter have only met once prior, back in 2024 in Linz. Whilst Pavlyuchenkova made the semifinals of the event, eventually losing out to Elena Ostapenko in the semifinals, Boulter is somewhat of an upstart on the WTA. She has a total of three WTA titles, and Pavlyuchekova has nine titles. Pavlyuchenkova has only had one successful tournament in 2025, and it was a quarterfinal appearance at the Australian Open.
Best Bet to Make
The books have Pavlyuchenkova as the favorite, and that is because of her experience on clay when placed up against Boulter. I agree that Pavlyuchenkova’s experience is likely to be the prevailing factor, as Boulter only has one WTA clay court win. Our own Jordan Reynolds picked Pavlyuchenkova in three sets, and I’m inclined to agree. The value to be had is worth it, should that be your approach.
That being said, Pavyluchenkova winning is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Pavyluchenkova winning @1.79 @Pinnacle
Stearns – Kalinskaya: Time 11:00
H2H: 0-1
Peyton Stearns and Anna Kalinskaya meet for the second time in their careers, and for the first time since Beijing in 2024. Kalinskaya won that match when Stearns retired after the fourth game of the third set from their third-round match. Stearns is 5-5 in her last ten, and Kalinskaya is 4-6, so neither is in their best form. Stearns is only 53-32 in her career on clay, Kalinskaya is 81-56. Both ladies are at home on the hard court.
Best Prop Bet to Make
The books have Stearns as an underdog, and I agree. Neither lady is all that good on clay, but it would seem as if Kalinskaya is the favorite at most outlets. Regardless of which outlet you choose, Kalinskaya can be had for 1.8 while Stearns is 2.04. One of these ladies could desperately use a winning streak to kickstart their ’25 campaign.
That being said, Kalinskaya winning is a value bet, for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Kalinskaya winning @2.20 @Betway
Main Photo Credit: Jerry Lai-USA TODAY Sports
