The ATP Estoril event is part of the very brief post-Wimbledon clay swing in Europe. The tournament used to be held in April, but it recently got moved into the post-Wimbledon slot as a summer clay showcase. There are plenty of Portuguese players in the field, trying to make a successful showing at their home-nation tournament. This is a popular, well-attended event despite its relatively small place within the larger tour structure. It is arguably the best and most enthusiastically supported ATP 250 event on the whole tour, so the athletes participating know they won’t be playing before quiet, uninvolved crowds. The 2026 ATP Estoril drama should be a fascinating tournament to watch, with the first round continuing on Tuesday. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Estoril
Stan Wawrinka – Roman Andres Burruchaga: 10:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
It will be an emotional moment at this ATP Estoril tournament when Stan Wawrinka takes the court. The Swiss is making the rounds one last time on the ATP Tour, saying his goodbyes at various tour stops. Wawrinka will become a member of the International Tennis Hall of Fame with his three Major championships, Olympic gold medal in doubles, and other elite achievements, so his final appearance in Portugal will be a local headline event. Meanwhile, he will try to win a match and extend his stay. His opponent, Roman Andres Burruchaga, made the ATP Umag semifinals last week before losing to the eventual tournament winner, Daniel Merida Aguilar. Burruchaga played really good tennis last week in Croatia and figures to be a tough out for Wawrinka.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay options: Burruchaga moneyline at 1.44 at @pinnacle, Wawrinka plus 4.5 games at 1.55 at @betsson
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – don’t bet more than half a unit on this match.
Everyone wants the fairytale ending, but reality shows that Stan Wawrinka is on his last legs. He isn’t beating superior competition. He’s an older tennis player winding his way toward the finish line of his career. He is enjoying the process of playing and attending tournaments. He is feeling the love from crowds at places all over the world. He’s not likely to win, however. Burruchaga played well in Umag last week. He has had a few days to rest after his run to the semifinals. Remember that Umag has its semifinals on Friday, not Saturday, unlike other tournaments. Burruchaga has had some time to regroup in Portugal and be fresh for this match. That’s why Burruchaga should win this match comfortably. However, emotions can be powerful. Wawrinka might play above his normal level. We’re not going to tell you to risk too much money on this match.
That being said, betting on Burruchaga winning 2:0 is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Burruchaga winning 2:0 at 2.12 @unibet
Nuno Borges – Orlando Luz: 8:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
This is some kind of story at the ATP Estoril tournament. Orlando Luz came to Portugal to play doubles, but he took a flier on the singles quallies. He decided to play them as a spur-of-the-moment decision. He wound up winning a couple matches and qualifying for the main draw. It’s Luz’s first singles main draw appearance since 2017. Can Luz keep the improbable run going? He is a massive underdog against the player who is probably going to be the crowd favorite at the event, Portugal’s Nuno Borges. This is a David versus Goliath matchup, with Borges being a titanic 1.06 moneyline favorite.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Borges winning 2:0 at 1.23 at @1xbet, Luz +7.5 games at 1.38 @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – you shouldn’t bet on this match.
There’s just so little value here. Borges is such a giant favorite that he’s not going to pay out much for winning or even for winning in straight sets. He has to win by a very large number of games to cover a game spread. The prices you get for these bets just aren’t worth it. You should pass, but if you think you have to bet, Borges -5.5 games offers some small degree of potential comfort.
That being said, betting on Borges -5.5 games is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: Borges -5.5 games @1.60 @10bet
Hugo Gaston – Damir Dzumhur: 8:30 EST
H2H: 0-1
Damir Dzumhur is 34 years old. He played a three-hour, 42-minute quarterfinal last week at Umag. He then won a three-set semifinal the next day. He then played a three-set final the day after, on Saturday. That’s a ton of tennis in a relatively short period of time. Dzumhur had to travel to Portugal and find some time to rest and recharge before starting this ATP Estoril tournament. The only really relevant question of this match is if Dzumhur can physically recover in time.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Dzumhur +3.5 games at 1.40 at @bet-at-home, Dzumhur +1.5 sets at 1.35 @coral
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 4 – You should not bet more than half a unit on this match.
The parlay pieces are both for Dzumhur because the main bet should be for Gaston. It’s going to be a heavy lift for Dzumhur, at age 34, to start over and play a sharp, energized match after all the tennis he played last week. He went nearly four hours on Thursday and then played grinding three-setters Friday and Saturday. Hugo Gaston should win this match. However, Gaston is not exactly a portrait of consistency or reliability, which is why we’re not hugely confident in our bet and will therefore suggest you bet a modest amount if you do want to join the action on this match.
That being said, betting on Gaston moneyline is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gaston moneyline @2.03 @betfair
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
