The WTA Madrid third round continues on Sunday. We are down to 24 singles players in the field, moving toward the Round of 16 on Monday and Tuesday. Iga Swiatek fell ill in her third-round match on Saturday and had to retire. What will be the big story on Sunday as Madrid nears the midway point? Here are three matches on the Sunday card to look at.
WTA Madrid
Cirstea – Gauff: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 0-2
Sorana-Mihaela Cirstea is a top-30 player. Though some would say she hasn’t made the absolute most out of her talent, she remains a powerful ballstriker who can put top opponents on their heels. Cirstea is certainly a dangerous player who, on a good day, can trouble top-10 WTA stars. Coco Gauff made a deep run in Miami to significantly improve her 2026 season after struggles in previous weeks. Now she comes to Madrid and returns to clay in the weeks before she defends her French Open championship.
Best Bet to Make
This match could easily be close, given Cirstea’s talent. However, Cirstea had a slight injury in Rouen the week before coming to Madrid. Against an elite athlete like Gauff, Cirstea might struggle with longer rallies. She might need to win points quickly, which is hard to do against someone who plays defense as well as Gauff does. Gauff is 2-0 head-to-head. This points to a straight-set win for Coco.
That being said, betting on Gauff winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Gauff winning 2:0 @1.72 @1xBet
Noskova – Samsonova: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 1-2
Linda Noskova is playing good tennis. She made the semifinals of Indian Wells in mid-March. Then she lost in Miami but followed that stumble with five wins in her last six matches. The only loss in that set of six matches was to Elina Svitolina, a very accomplished opponent. Liudmila Samsonova, on the other hand, has lost seven of her last nine matches, though she did look very good in a convincing win in the second round of Madrid against Janice Tjen. Is Samsonova about to regain form and confidence?
Best Bet to Make
One good match by Samsonova against Tjen doesn’t mean she is likely to beat or even come close to beating an in-form Noskova. The fact that Noskova has won so many matches over the past month while Samsonova has won so few matches in the same span of time is enough to recommend a bet on Noskova winning this match straightforwardly.
That being said, betting on Noskova winning 2:0 is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Noskova winning 2:0 @2.38 @Unibet
Mertens – Pliskova: Time 7:00 EST
H2H: 1-3
Elise Mertens and Karolina Pliskova are two established veterans of the WTA Tour. They are both past their 30th birthday and are trying to use their experience to their advantage. Now they come up against each other in Madrid. Mertens has won three of her last four matches, while Pliskova has won four of her last five matches. Pliskova looked very solid earlier in this Madrid tournament against another veteran player, Maria Sakkari. Can she continue to outfox experienced players in Spain?
Best Bet to Make
Pliskova leads the head-to-head 3-1, but their last match was in 2023. This match would seem to depend on whether Mertens can stay in longer rallies and move Pliskova around the court. Mertens is a great doubles player, so if she can make Pliskova run, she should get chances to end points by coming to the net and hitting a volley. Pliskova probably needs to keep points short. She has a smaller margin for error than Mertens does. Mertens winning in straight sets doesn’t offer a great price, so go with the game spread instead.
That being said, betting on Mertens -3.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Mertens -3.5 games @1.89 @1xBet
Main Photo Credit: Sam Greene-USA TODAY Sports
