The ATP Bastad tournament features first-round play on Tuesday. Bastad is one of three ATP 250 tournaments being held this week. This week right after Wimbledon is a time when the high-ranked players take a break and prepare for the hardcourts of North America in early August, leading up to the US Open. Lower-tier and middle-tier players on the ATP Tour are the ones who play this week, especially clay enthusiasts who either don’t like grass or didn’t make deep runs at Wimbledon. Those players who didn’t play a ton of matches in the grass season come to post-Wimbledon clay to gain points, prize money, and maybe even a trophy. Because the top layers of the tour regularly skip these events, the second and third rungs of players know this is a real opportunity to claim a tour title and create a highlight in their tennis season. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Bastad
Sebastian Ofner – Thiago Agustin Tirante: 5:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
The first week of post-Wimbledon clay tournaments offers a world of opportunity to the players involved. Jannik Sinner, Novak Djokovic, Alexander Zverev, and the other top players on the ATP Tour are resting up for Canada, Cincinnati, and then the U.S. Open in New York. These post-Wimbledon clay tournaments are the 250s and 500s for players outside the top 30 who can really use the rankings points, which offer a better chance at qualifying for the bigger tournaments over the course of the season.
We start our ATP Bastad card on Tuesday with Sebastian Ofner against Thiago Agustin Tirante. Notably, both players have played a lot on clay in 2026. Ofner played 28 matches, going 16-12. Tirante played 22 matches, going 14-8. You would expect eager clay tennis players to enter these post-Wimbledon mid-July tournaments, and that’s what we have here.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay/hedge options: Ofner plus 1.5 sets at 1.53 at @coral, Tirante moneyline at 1.67 at @bet365
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 1 – bet one fourth of a unit on this ATP Bastad match if you are going to bet. A first-round post-Wimbledon clay 250 should involve study and observation unless there’s an obvious angle which is just too good to pass up.
Sebastian Ofner did slightly better than Thiago Agustin Tirante at Wimbledon. Ofner won a main-draw match and lost in the second round to the always-dangerous Hubert Hurkacz. Tirante lost in the first round to Fabian Marozsan. Tirante would probably rate as more of a pure clay specialist if only because he is not as good on grass as Ofner is, and because Ofner has played 11 indoor matches this year compared to none for Tirante. Ofner’s workload is more evenly spread across surfaces, even though clay is the surface on which he plays the most. This might explain why Tirante is the clear moneyline favorite according to the sportsbooks. You could lean to Tirante on the moneyline if you want, but Ofner is no chump on clay. This feels like a match which is fundamentally too close to call. Why not pick a three-setter?
That being said, betting on over 2.5 sets is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 2.5 sets at 2.30 @10bet
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer – Andrea Pellegrino: 5:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Both players in this ATP Bastad matchup are ranked outside the top 115 and inside the top 140 (118 for Budkov Kjaer, 138 for Pellegrino). One very notable detail here is that while Budkov Kjaer has played 16 matches on clay in 2026 (9-7 record), Pellegrino has played a whopping 40 matches on clay this year, going 24-16 in those matches. The size of Pellegrino’s clay workload is hard to ignore here, but Budkov Kjaer is hardly a stranger to the surface himself. Budkov Kjaer played six matches in the just-concluded grass season, Pellegrino only two. It will be very interesting to see if these differences in surface-specific workloads matter.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay/hedge/sprinkle options: Budkov Kjaer +1.5 sets at 1.37 at @interwetten, sprinkle over 2.5 sets at 2.30 @unibet, Budkov Kjaer +3.5 games at 1.43 at @bet-at-home
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 2 – if you are going to bet on this match, don’t bet a lot, maybe one fourth of a unit. Sit back and observe these first few matches unless you see something amazing that you have to dive into.
You can see our ATP Bastad betting strategy here. Have two Budkov Kjaer parlay pieces in place as hedges against our recommended best bet. If you feel bold, sprinkle a tiny bit on a three-setter, since these are fairly evenly matched players. We aren’t in love with this bet, because again, it’s post-Wimbledon clay and these are not the very best players on tour. Volatility is to be expected in the early rounds. We might have more of a feel for where the tournament is going when we get into the quarterfinals. However, if we did have to identify a best bet, Pellegrino’s 40 clay matches and solid winning percentage (.600) in those 40 matches are hard to ignore. Pellegrino to win makes sense, with Budkov Kjaer spread parlays being your insurance on the other side.
That being said, betting on Pellegrino moneyline is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: Pellegrino moneyline @1.89 @pinnacle
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo – Miguel Damas: 6:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
The third match on our Tuesday card in Bastad pits Adolfo Daniel Vallejo against Miguel Damas. These are two genuine clay specialists. They predominantly play clay and barely play on other surfaces during the year. In 2026, Vallejo has played 43 matches, Damas 35. Vallejo is 32-11 in his 43 matches while Damas is 16-19 in his 35 matches. That’s a sharp difference in results which explains why Vallejo is World No. 71 and Damas is No. 300. You can imagine that Vallejo would be a huge favorite in the markets, and that’s exactly the case. Vallejo is listed as a 1.22 moneyline favorite, Damas a 4.80 underdog.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay/hedge options: Damas plus 5.5 games at 1.75 at @BetVictor
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 5 – bet three-fourths of a unit on this match if you are going to bet, not a full unit.
You can install a game spread parlay piece for Damas on this match as a hedge against the main bet, which is going for Vallejo. You could be a little more conservative if you want and go with Damas plus 6.5 games for a lower price, but we think Vallejo in straight sets makes a lot of sense here. It is therefore an ATP Bastad first-round match you can reasonably bet slightly more on, though we’re still not taking an all-in approach just because this part of the calendar is often uncertain. The difference in clay records between the two players makes it hard to bet against Vallejo. That’s the main bet, but you can put up a Damas parlay bet as insurance.
That being said, betting on Vallejo winning 2:0 is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Vallejo winning 2:0 at 1.63 @1xbet
Main Photo Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports
