The WTA Madrid second round continues on Friday. The Round of 64 began on Thursday with a few eye-opening results. Elina Svitolina, the No. 7 seed, was beaten in straight sets. Naomi Osaka looked very good in a convincing win. Iga Swiatek played a clean match and started her tournament the right way. What will happen on another day of second-round matches, with more seeded players in action? Here are three matches on the Friday card.
WTA Madrid
Keys – Zhang: Time 5:00 EST
H2H: 3-5
Madison Keys and Shuai Zhang have met eight times, but not since 2022, so that head-to-head doesn’t really matter in 2026. The first meeting between these two veterans was back in 2011. A lot has happened in recent years, so this matchup might feel very different from previous meetings. Both Keys and Zhang have struggled this season. Keys did make the Charleston semifinals, but she did not go for in Indian Wells or Miami. Zhang won her first-round match in Madrid to advance to this second-round battle against Keys.
Best Bet to Make
Zhang has lost six of her last seven matches, but she has lost to good top-50 players: Sorana Cirstea, Linda Noskova, Anastasia Potapova. Keys is the better player, but a Keys straight-set win does not offer a good price, so the game spread is where you should go. The number where the prices on both sides are good is 5.5 games. I’m taking Zhang plus the number because Keys just hasn’t been consistent enough.
That being said, betting on Zhang +5.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Zhang +5.5 games @1.90 @1xet
Tjen – Samsonova: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 0-1
Janice Tjen and Liudmila Samsonova are streaky players in 2026. Tjen has won five straight matches after losing five in a row. That’s an unusual way of going 5-5 in a 10-match stretch. Samsonova has lost seven of eight matches. She pushed herself into the top 25 but is now going in the wrong direction. Can she regroup in Madrid? She did beat Tjen earlier this year in Abu Dhabi, so maybe that will give her some confidence.
Best Bet to Make
Betting on a player who has lost seven of eight matches is really hard to do. It’s even harder to bet on that player to dominate when the opponent has won five straight matches. Samsonova is the player who is definitely harder to trust in this matchup. She might win the match, but she won’t win easily. I’m taking Tjen to win at least one set and push this match to a third set.
That being said, betting on Tjen +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Tjen +1.5 sets @1.71 @Unibet
Mertens – Eala: Time 6:30 EST
H2H: 1-0
Elise Mertens faces Alexandra Eala in a battle of top-50 players. Mertens has won at least one match at each of the last four tournaments she entered (not counting the Billie Jean King Cup). Yet, in three of those four tournaments, she won only one match. Mertens would love to be able to string together several wins and get to the quarterfinal round of an important tournament. Eala has also found it hard to win several matches in a row. She is 4-4 in her last eight, but she did beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in a strong first-round performance.
Best Bet to Make
Mertens is and should be favored, but will she be able to dominate? Eala is 4-4 in her last eight matches, as noted above, but she is losing to good players: Jelena Ostapenko, Linda Noskova, Leylah Fernandez, and Karolina Muchova. She isn’t losing to lower-level opponents. Mertens might win, but Eala should keep it close. That’s what the bet should be.
That being said, betting on Eala +1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Eala +1.5 sets @1.85 @Betway
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
