The ATP Masters 1000 Madrid first round on April 23 continues with a mix of experience and upset potential. Alexei Popyrin’s higher-level experience gives him the edge, while the clash between Marco Trungelliti and Daniel Merida Aguilar looks set to be a tight battle. Meanwhile, Adolfo Daniel Vallejo’s strong qualifying form could see him take advantage of Grigor Dimitrov’s struggles.
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/64-Finals
Popyrin – Damm: 23.04.2026 12:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Alexei Popyrin has lost three of his last five matches. The last match he played was in Monte Carlo, where he lost to Ruud in the opening round in straight sets. Last season in Madrid, Popyrin lost to Bublik in the second round in straight sets.
Martin Damm has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Damm qualified for the main draw of the tournament. In the final qualifying round, the American defeated Garin in three sets after losing the opening set.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Popyrin is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. He has more Masters 1000 experience than Damm. The American never succeeded on clay. We expect Popyrin to get a comfortable win.
That being said, Popyrin covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Alexei Popyrin -2.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Trungelliti – Merida Aguilar: 23.04.2026 15:30 CEST
H2H: 3-1
Marco Trungelliti has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Trungelliti lost in the final qualifying round against Merida Aguilar. However, with several players withdrawing from the tournament, the Argentine entered the main draw as a lucky loser.
Daniel Merida Aguilar has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Spaniard won both qualifying matches in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, and we agree. They played each other yesterday in a close match. Trungelliti lost, but knows what he needs to change. We expect a tight match, possibly three sets.
That being said, over games is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: over 23.5 games @1.83 @bet365
Vallejo – Dimitrov: 23.04.2026 14:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Adolfo Daniel Vallejo has won three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Vallejo qualified for the main draw tournament. In the final qualifying round, Vallejo defeated Rocha in three sets.
Grigor Dimitrov has lost five straight matches. The last match he played was in Monte Carlo, where he lost to Etcheverry in three sets. Last season in Madrid, Dimitrov lost to Diallo in the fourth round in three tight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Dimitrov is in terrible form and has yet to win a clay-court match this season. On the other hand, Vallejo played well in the qualifying tournament and is having a breakthrough season.
That being said, Vallejo winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Adolfo Daniel Vallejo winning @1.80 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports
