The ATP Masters 1000 Madrid first round on April 23 offers several intriguing value opportunities. Nicolai Budkov Kjaer’s strong qualifying run makes him a live underdog against Reilly Opelka, while Sebastian Baez should benefit from fresher legs and past dominance in his matchup. Meanwhile, Patrick Kypson could capitalize on Stefanos Tsitsipas’ poor form to keep things much closer than expected.
ATP Masters 1000 Madrid 1/64-Finals
Budkov Kjaer – Opelka: 23.04.2026 17:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Nicolai Budkov Kjaer has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, the Norwegian qualified for the main draw of the tournament. In the final qualifying round, he demolished Echargui in straight sets within an hour.
Reilly Opelka has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, Opelka lost to Quinn in the opening round in straight sets. Last season in Madrid, the American lost to Khachanov in the second round in straight sets.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, this will be a 50-50 matchup, but we disagree. Budkov Kjaer dominated in the qualifying tournament and enjoys playing on clay. On the other hand, Opelka never succeeded on clay courts.
That being said, Budkov Kjaer winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer winning @2.00 @bet365
Gaubas – Baez: 23.04.2026 14:00 CEST
H2H: 0-1
Vilius Gaubas has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Gaubas qualified for the main draw tournament. In the final qualifying round, Gaubas defeated Sakamoto in three tiebreaks after playing for almost four hours.
Sebastian Baez lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Barcelona, Baez lost to Machac in the opening round in three sets. Last season in Madrid, the Argentine lost to Dzumhur in the second round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Baez is the slight favourite in this matchup, and we agree. Around a month ago in Bucharest, Baez demolished Gaubas in straight sets. Gaubas had a three-set thriller in the final qualifying round and will have heavy legs coming into this match.
That being said, Baez covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Sebastian Baez -3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Kypson – Tsitsipas: 23.04.2026 14:00 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Patrick Kypson has lost three of his last five matches. This week in Madrid, Kypson failed to qualify for the main draw tournament. However, with several players withdrawing from the tournament, Kypson entered the main draw as a lucky loser.
Stefanos Tsitsipas has lost four of his last five matches. Last week in Munich, Tsitsipas lost to Marozsan in the opening round in three sets. He is in terrible form and currently ranked outside the top 70.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Kypson is the heavy underdog in this matchup, but we disagree. Tsitsipas is in terrible form and lacks confidence. On the other hand, Kypson played well this season and wants to cement his status in the top 100. We expect a close match.
That being said, Kypson covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Patrick Kypson +3.5 games handicap @1.73 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
