ATP Wimbledon quarterfinals begin on Tuesday. Before the tournament began and when the bracket was released, everyone could see that Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic had a chance to meet in the semifinals, which they have done before at Wimbledon. With Carlos Alcaraz out due to injury, this became the biggest question at the All-England Club. Would Sinner and Djokovic be able to win five matches each and meet once again with everything on the line? They are both one step away. If they can win in the quarterfinals on Tuesday, they will meet on Friday, with the winner of that match having the inside track to the championship. Can the underdogs, Jan-Lennard Struff and Felix Auger Aliassime, stand in their way? LWOS has our best bet for two matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Wimbledon
Sinner – Struff: 10:00 EST
H2H: 3-0
The ATP Wimbledon quarterfinals begin with Jannik Sinner trying to stay focused and not look ahead to Novak Djokovic. He has to beat Jan-Lennard Struff first. The ATP Wimbledon championship might be decided by a Sinner-Djokovic semifinal, but Sinner hasn’t gotten that far yet. He is 3-0 against Struff, so that certainly would suggest Sinner should win. However, Sinner has looked less than his best so far at the All-England Club this year. He is winning but not dominating. He isn’t winning matches 6-2, 6-2, 6-1 anymore. He is getting deep into sets and finding ways to win, but it seems he needs at least a half hour to settle into every match he plays. Struff is a talented player who can serve really well. If he has a good serving day, this match could be close.
Best Bet to Make
Sinner to win in straight sets is not quite enough of a value bet for us to make it our recommended ATP Wimbledon best bet, but you can certainly throw that into a parlay, especially if you feel like playing Struff against the game spread. We recommended Shintaro Mochizuki plus 9.5 games as our best bet in Sinner’s previous match on Sunday in the Round of 16. If you followed us and made a wager, you cashed. Sinner is just not blowing out opponents. He is beating them but not beating them up and destroying them. If Sinner wins this match 6-4, 6-3, 6-3, which is a comfortable and routine win, you still cash the ticket with Struff plus the 8.5 games. Given the way this tournament has been going, that seems like the right play to make.
That being said, betting on Struff +8.5 games is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Struff +8.5 games @1.65 @interwetten
Auger Aliassime – Djokovic: 11:30 EST
H2H: 1-2
Most of the attention in this ATP Wimbledon match will be on Novak Djokovic, for all the obvious reasons, but it’s also a really big opportunity for Felix Auger Aliassime to make the Wimbledon semifinal and see if he can contend for the title at the All-England Club. Felix is a much younger player than Djokovic. He is in his physical prime. If he can make this a physical match and pull Djokovic into extended rallies, this could be a very close match the Canadian can win. What works against Felix is that Djokovic has the experience and has proved he can handle pressure, whereas the Canadian has struggled to deal with stress and tension in the more important moments of his career. Djokovic has not been dominant at this tournament. He has lost one set in three of his first four matches. It will be a challenge for him to win this match in straight sets, which means that if he has to play four sets, his 39-year-old body could get tired and give Felix a real shot at this.
Best Bet to Make
Djokovic is unlikely to win in straight sets, so you should put Auger Aliassime plus 2.5 sets into a parlay, but that’s not great value and isn’t the standalone bet at the given price (1.29). You can offset that by also putting Djokovic moneyline into a separate parlay. The real question is whether Djokovic will win this match in four sets or five. This brings up a simple point: If the match does go five sets, Djokovic might be in trouble since Auger Aliassime is a very fit athlete who will be happy to run around and cover the court. Djokovic will want to keep points short by serving big and not allowing Felix to get comfortable in longer rallies. If you think this match is going five sets, you should be taking Auger Aliassime against the game spread, the set spread, and even on the moneyline. However, if you think that Djokovic is going to be very focused on making sure this match doesn’t get to a fifth set, you can take him minus 1.5 sets for a very good price. That’s the play we are going to make.
That being said, betting on Djokovic -1.5 sets is a value bet for sure.
Value bet/ the best odds: Djokovic -1.5 sets @2.07 @1xbet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
