The ATP Gstaad post-Wimbledon clay tennis tournament moves into the Round of 16 on Wednesday. It’s a week for players who either love clay tennis or who were not able to play much during grass season. Players who didn’t go deep at Wimbledon and need match play, either for rankings points or to simply regain physical stamina before the North American hardcourt season in August, are playing these ATP 250 events. Gstaad, in Switzerland, is one of the three this week alongside Bastad in Sweden and Umag in Croatia. You’re not going to find many top-20 players here, but you are going to find players hungry to do something while the elites stay home and recover from Wimbledon. LWOS has our best bets for three matches. Post your best bets and thoughts in the comments.
ATP Gstaad
Arthur Rinderknech – Clement Tabur: 6:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
The ATP Gstaad Wednesday card includes this Round of 16 encounter between Arthur Rinderknech and Clement Tabur. Rinderknech is 7-7 on clay this year, Tabur 15-8. Tabur has played more and won more on this surface, but against lower-tier competitors. Rinderknech, ranked just inside the top 30, is 150 spots higher in the ATP rankings than Tabur, who is ranked just outside the top 175. Is Tabur’s clay record being undervalued here? Rinderknech is a solid betting favorite at the sportsbooks. Rinderknech is a very clear favorite not only because of his place in the rankings relative to Tabur, but also because he gave Novak Djokovic a good test at Wimbledon, going deep into the fourth set and very nearly taking Djokovic into a fifth set in a match a lot of people watched. Public money is probably going to flow to Rinderknech here.
Best Bet to Make
Welcome to our best bet section. You’re going to get a collection of bets to consider, also a confidence level which should guide how much you should invest in this match.
Parlay options: Rinderknech moneyline at 1.57 at @bet365, Tabur plus 1.5 sets at 1.61 at @unibet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 5 – bet no more than three fourths of a unit on this match if you are going to bet on it.
It is hard to ignore how well Arthur Rinderknech played against Novak Djokovic at Wimbledon, but that was on grass and this is on clay, where Clement Tabur plays fairly well. The idea that Rinderknech is a lock to win in straight sets or on a game spread seems a little too aggressive. However, while not a lock at all, Rinderknech is probably where you should lean if you are going to bet at all on this match. Have a Tabur hedge parlay piece in place, but Rinderknech against the game spread is where we land on this one.
That being said, betting on Rinderknech -2.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Rinderknech -2.5 games at 1.95 @interwetten
Jerome Kym – Stefanos Tsitsipas: 11:30 EST
H2H: 0-0
Here is an interesting under-the-radar match for ATP Gstaad on Wednesday. A lot of casual tennis fans probably haven’t heard of Jerome Kym. However, in Wimbledon qualifying, he pushed Roman Safiullin to five sets before ultimately losing. Safiullin went to the Round of 16 at Wimbledon before losing to Novak Djokovic. Jerome Kym’s loss to Safiullin didn’t receive major headlines because it was a qualifying match, but that result sure looks different now compared to a few weeks ago. It shows that Kym has real shotmaking talent. Stefanos Tsitsipas lost to Djokovic at Wimbledon. To be more precise, he lost to Djokovic more decisively than Roman Safiullin (the man who beat Jerome Kym) lost to Djokovic. On that basis, Kym might seem to have the upper hand. However, that was on grass, which has never been a good surface for Tsitsipas. The Greek’s best surface has been clay, and that’s where this match is.
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Tsitsipas moneyline at 1.40 at @bet365, Kym +3.5 games at 1.72 @1xbet
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 5 – bet maybe two thirds of a unit, no more than three fourths of a unit, on this match.
If you are going to bet on this match, Tsitsipas being comfortable on clay should be your starting point. Tsitsipas is a shadow of the player he once was, but he is not playing a top-level clay tennis player here. Kym showed some talent on grass, but Tsitsipas’ topspin forehand always plays better on clay than on other surfaces. Kym might struggle to handle that shot on red clay. If there’s an angle on this match, it should go in the direction of Tsitsipas, though we are far from fully confident because Stef has been so obviously and hugely disappointing as a tennis player in recent years. Still, the matchup seems to suit him.
That being said, betting on Tsitsipas winning 2:0 is the best bet you can make
Value bet/ the best odds: Tsitsipas winning 2:0 @2.05 @interwetten
Yannick Hanfmann – Valentin Vacherot: 9:00 EST
H2H: 0-0
Yannick Hanfmann is World No. 51 on the ATP Tour. Valentin Vacherot is ranked No. 21 on tour. Yet, you can plainly see if you check the sportsbooks that Hanfmann is the very clear betting favorite. It’s not because Hanfmann is 12-9 on clay this season whereas Vacherot is 5-3. That’s not really enough to override the 30-spot ranking gap between the two players, with Vacherot being the higher-ranked player. The reason Hanfmann is the clear favorite is that Vacherot is returning from a stress fracture in his left foot, which caused him to miss the whole grass season. Vacherot is playing ATP Gstaad precisely to gather information and test how fit he actually is. He’s not trying to win a trophy. He’s just trying to get back into playing shape. That influences the betting calculus for this match, as you will read below:
Best Bet to Make
Parlay options: Hanfmann moneyline at 1.58 at @unibet, Vacherot +1.5 sets at 1.61 @coral
Confidence level on a scale of 1-10: 0 – When there is a significant injury question looming over a match, you should not bet on it. Some will say you should make a bet favoring the player who is not injured. Maybe, but you just don’t know if the previously injured player will be healthy. If he suddenly looks well, your bet is in trouble.
We can’t say it any more plainly than we just did: Don’t bet on this. If you have to bet and just want to scratch that itch, the natural lean should be to Hanfmann, and we will leave it at that.
That being said, betting on Hanfmann -2.5 games is the best bet you can make.
Value bet/ the best odds: Hanfmann -2.5 games @2.07 @unibet
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
