We wrap up the first round of the Australian Open on Day 3, with 20 men’s matches on the schedule. As always, our writers here at LastWordOnTennis share their thoughts on every single match with you. We split the 20 matches between five articles, with the other four featuring Gael Monfils vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Taylor Fritz vs Jenson Brooksby, Daniil Medvedev vs Kasidit Samrej, and Andrey Rublev vs Joao Fonseca. Predicting these matches are Damian Kust, Shane Black, and Andreas Pelekis. Who do you think will advance?
Australian Open Day 3 Men’s Predictions
Corentin Moutet vs Alexei Popyrin
Damian:
Popyrin improved a lot last year, but the matchup with Moutet was very troublesome for him in the past. This could be a wild match with the crowd supporting their player and likely antagonizing the feisty underdog. If Popyrin gets through this, he’ll have a chance at a big run. But it’s a pretty big if against someone who knows how to put you down on the tennis court.
Prediction: Popyrin in 5
Shane:
Popyrin loves playing in Australia for obvious reasons. He took down Taylor Fritz in Melbourne two seasons ago and will once again feed off the crowd’s energy. Moutet will also engage with the crowd as he relishes playing the villain role. However, Popyrin will be too much for the Frenchman to overcome.
Prediction: Popyrin in 4
Andreas:
Moutet’s slow but tricky game may frustrate Popyrin, who relies on power and high-energy occasions. However, the Aussie had a strong ending to his 2024 season and should be able to maintain his good form by winning this match.
Prediction: Popyrin in 3
Rinky Hijikata vs Mitchell Krueger
Damian:
Krueger had that resurgence last year and looked really solid in the qualifying, which might suggest he’ll keep that up for at least some time. Hijikata doesn’t have the weapons to put him away and will let the American into this match. But he loves playing with the home crowd and that extra intensity boost might just be exactly what he’ll need to close this out.
Prediction: Hijikata in 5
Shane:
Hijikata played strong tennis to end the 2024 season and began 2025 with two upsets to reach the Adelaide quarterfinals. He and Krueger should exchange many long baseline rallies, but I expect the consistency of the former North Carolina Tar Heel to win out.
Prediction: Hijikata in 4
Andreas:
Krueger qualified for the main draw last week, making his first appearance here since 2019. Hijikata put together a strong run to the Adelaide quarterfinals, and he should be motivated after losing a fifth-set tiebreak heartbreaker in the Australian Open first round last year. The Aussie will reach the second round for the second time with a win.
Prediction: Hijikata in 4
Pablo Carreno Busta vs Kamil Majchrzak
Damian:
They had a fantastic clash in Poznan last year while both were on the comeback trail. Majchrzak survived match points in qualifying but only improved from there, whereas Carreno Busta is still more about glimpses of his past self. It’s close, you can probably just flip a coin. If Majchrzak’s resurgence is going to continue, this would be the way to take another step.
Prediction: Majchrzak in 5
Shane:
Carreno Busta has battled back from injury but has yet to return to anywhere near his top-15 form. He has had previous success Down Under, and I expect him to have another strong Australian Open run. The Polish qualifier can be dangerous, but I struggle to see his path to victory against the consistent Spaniard.
Prediction: Carreno Busta in 4
Andreas:
Carreno Busta hasn’t lost a first-round match at the Australian Open since 2016, but he’s largely struggled with his form and injuries over the past few seasons. The two have played twice on clay courts at the ATP Challenger Tour level, so it’s hard to get a sense of who will thrive better on the hard courts. Majchrzak came through qualifying to get here, and might feel a little bit more confident with a couple of matches under his belt.
Prediction: Majchrzak in 4
Holger Rune vs Zhizhen Zhang
Damian:
Zhang has only won one match since making the Hangzhou final, but he’s not a player who needs to be in great rhythm to suddenly produce a stellar performance. It’s just that doing it over at least three sets against someone as all-rounded as Rune seems a little out there at the moment. He’ll have his moments, but that’s probably it.
Prediction: Rune in 4
Shane:
Rune won just a single match between the two hard-court Slams last season. That is abnormal for one of the better ball-strikers on tour. Zhang is a fan of hard courts himself, but it will be tough for him to outlast a motivated Rune.
Prediction: Rune in 4
Andreas:
It’s been a tough road for Rune as of late, and his last Grand Slam appearance ended in a miserable straight-sets loss to Brandon Nakashima, at the US Open. Zhang has struggled on the tour as well, and Rune will have a new coaching staff that could boost his form again here. The Dane wins this match in four.
Prediction: Rune in 4
Main Photo Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports
