We wrap up the first round of the Australian Open on Day 3, with 20 men’s matches on the schedule. As always, our writers here at LastWordOnTennis share their thoughts on every single match with you. We split the 20 matches between five articles, with the other four featuring Gael Monfils vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, Taylor Fritz vs Jenson Brooksby, Daniil Medvedev vs Kasidit Samrej, and Andrey Rublev vs Joao Fonseca. Predicting these matches are Damian Kust, Tope Oke, and Andreas Pelekis. Who do you think will advance?
Australian Open Day 3 Men’s Predictions
Borna Coric vs Christian Garin
Damian:
Two players wildly out of form here. Garin made it through the qualifying, but didn’t have the toughest draw with many clay-courters around. His level will be tested here, even if Coric lost a lot of his past resilience and consistency. It’s tough to make any calls given how far they are off their best, maybe the Croat is still just slightly better on a court like this.
Prediction: Coric in 4
Tope:
Even though the Croat, Coric, is the better player, I’ll have to go with the Chilean, Cristian Garin, who looked very solid in the qualifiers.
Prediction: Garin in 4
Andreas:
Neither player has been in the best form as of late, but Coric tends to thrive on hard courts. Additionally, Coric stunned Felix Auger-Aliassime in a United Cup opener during the first week of the season. While Garin performed well in his three qualifying victories, the Croat has to be the slight favorite. Expect a lot of long rallies and defensive tennis in this match.
Prediction: Coric in 4
Miomir Kecmanovic vs Dusan Lajovic
Damian:
Kecmanovic had a solid run in Adelaide and got an upset or two in at the Australian Open last year. Lajovic on paper is just a far weaker hard-court player, but we know these matches don’t need to be easy. Especially when you don’t have the weapons to really take him down. Might be a bit of a struggle, but ultimately you’d expect Kecmanovic to win.
Prediction: Kecmanovic in 4
Tope:
Dusan Lajovic has won both encounters between these two but they were both on clay. On this occasion, I expect the player in better form to prevail in this encounter between two Serbians.
Prediction: Kecmanovic in 4
Andreas:
Lajovic won the pair’s only two matches, but Kecmanovic seems to be playing better tennis at the moment. Kecmanovic has a heavy topspin forehand that should be able to break down Lajovic’s one-handed backhand. Kecmanovic is also coming off a strong semifinal result in Adelaide.
Prediction: Kecmanovic in 4
Lorenzo Sonego vs Stan Wawrinka
Damian:
Wawrinka will be 40 in March and other than that brief Stockholm/Basel revival, he doesn’t seem like he has much left physically. The best-of-five format in particular has been getting more and more tricky for the former champion. Even if he comes out firing, it seems like Sonego doesn’t have to do much more than just extend this match.
Prediction: Sonego in 4
Tope:
While Stan Wawrinka cannot possibly win a second title here, he’ll be looking to leave on a high in what could be his final appearance in Melbourne. If he can storm out of the starting blocks and win a set or two, he is capable of defeating the Italian.
Prediction: Wawrinka in 4
Andreas:
Could 2025 be Wawrinka’s last opportuntiy at a big Grand Slam run? Turning 40 in March, the Swiss won his only match against Sonego in 2023, 6-3 6-4. Sonego relies on fast footwork and a strong forehand, and it might be able to break down Wawrinka’s slower movement and powerful backhand. The Italian will have to work his way into the match, and avoid letting the likely pro-Wawrinka crowd get to him. This match has a five-setter on the cards.
Prediction: Sonego in 5
Taylor Fritz vs Jenson Brooksby
Damian:
Brooksby is coming back after two years of inactivity and that’s all there is to say about this one. Fritz lost to him at a Slam once, but he’s done some tremendous work getting himself to the level of consistency he’s at right now. Perhaps in a few months they’ll have a good battle somewhere. At this point in time, it’s a mismatch.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
Tope:
The only encounter between these two Americans was an emphatic win for Broosksby at the US Open in 2021. That was 4 years ago and lighting will not strike twice.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
Andreas:
Brooksby stunned Fritz in the second round of the 2021 US Open, but the two have gone in different directions form-wise since then. Brooksby will be confident and aware of Fritz’s style of play, and the more experienced World No. 4 should be facing some pressure as one of the title favorites. Fritz will have to keep ahold of his serve, and should reach the second round.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
Main Photo Credit: Mike Frey-USA TODAY Sports
