I prepared this off-season thread on Twitter/X for the first time in December 2022, trying to guess which players would debut in the ATP Top 100 next year. I gave myself 26 picks for the 26 players that did in 2022 and got 12 correct, but with the caveat that only 21 made it in 2023. So in the next edition, I chose 21 players and ended up landing 14 of them for what I consider a very nice success rate of 67%. Or even a touch more, if you consider that only 20 players achieved that milestone in 2024. That doesn’t mean I didn’t make a few blunders…
I wasn’t planning on doing it this year (figured it wouldn’t be interesting for you again), but a lot of you have asked so by popular demand I’m bringing back the top 100 list.
Top 100 debut picks for 2024:
(21 for 21 debuts in 2023, 1 or 2 a day to finish before the new season)— Damian Kust (@damiankust) December 18, 2023
Correct picks (position at the start of the season -> career-high achieved in 2024)
- Tomas Barrios Vera (103 -> 93)
- Mattia Bellucci (177 -> 100)
- Zizou Bergs (129 -> 61)
- Arthur Cazaux (130 -> 63)
- Francisco Comesana (124 -> 84)
- Luciano Darderi (128 -> 32)
- Gabriel Diallo (139 -> 86)
- Aleksandar Kovacevic (110 -> 72)
- Jakub Mensik (167 -> 48)
- Luca Nardi (118 -> 70)
- Mariano Navone (125 -> 29)
- Juncheng Shang (183 -> 47)
- Thiago Agustin Tirante (123 -> 90)
- Otto Virtanen (168 -> 91)
Let’s start on a positive note. As you can see most of these weren’t particularly brave, all 14 of my correct picks were already in the Top 200 at the start of last season. Some of these were very obvious with how close they were to that feat.
So which of these selections would I consider my best? I almost left out Otto Virtanen given his point situation was looking pretty tragic (had 50% of his ranking to defend in March), so I’m glad to have stuck by him. In the second half of 2023 I kept saying that Juncheng Shang would have been in the Top 100 by now if not for getting mono and I think this year kind of confirmed it. Mariano Navone and Luciano Darderi made such huge leaps but in the case of the latter, I’m not sure I knew exactly how good this pick was going to turn out to be.
It sounds ridiculous now, but Jakub Mensik was still a relatively bold selection at the start of the season. Mattia Bellucci, while it did take him until the last few weeks of the year to confirm it, was also one of my stronger picks for sure. It’s mostly a very young and talented list and evidently, lots of fresh talent joined the Top 100 ranks in 2024.
Top 100 debutants who weren’t on my list (position at the start of the season -> career-high achieved in 2024):
- Buyunchaokete (171 -> 65)
- Jacob Fearnley (646 -> 89)
- Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (205 -> 30)
- Sumit Nagal (138 -> 68)
- Alexander Ritschard (221 -> 99)
- Adam Walton (176 -> 86)
Two big blunders here – Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard and Sumit Nagal. With the Frenchman I was just looking at how erratic his results and baseline game were and thinking it would take him longer than one year to sort it out. Looking back at it now, not picking him is the worst mistake I’ve made in two years of preparing this list. With Nagal I massively underestimated how big an opportunity the Indian Challenger swing was going to be for him as he wasn’t defending any points at the start of the season. One thing that makes it slightly more acceptable is that he wasn’t able to make much impact on the ATP Tour unlike 2-time champion Mpetshi Perricard (Lyon, Basel).
Adam Walton I briefly considered but the way he dominated the Challenger circuit was something that was not to be expected (similarly to Nagal, his ATP Tour results were a bit subpar). Predicting a Top 100 debut at age 30 like Alexander Ritschard’s was always going to be tough, even if the Swiss had a peak game of that caliber for years (but just the peak, not the floor). Buyunchaokete made amazing progress this year and there are no words to describe what Jacob Fearnley did right after wrapping up his college career.
Which one of these did I even consider when preparing the list last December? Mpetshi Perricard was one of the three or four players on my shortlist for the very last day, I briefly thought of Walton too. Others, not so much. But as mentioned earlier, I should have analyzed the ranking situation of Nagal better.
Near misses (position at the start of the season -> highest rank achieved in 2024):
- Lukas Klein (170 -> 109)
- Vit Kopriva (132 -> 112)
- Hamad Medjedovic (113 -> 105)
As near misses, I’m counting the players I picked who reached the Top 120 at some point this season but failed to break the Top 100. The flaw of that system is that it automatically includes Hamad Medjedovic, but he undoubtedly belongs in this category. I would have bet my house on him breaking the Top 100 in 2024 and while he did eventually get to that Belgrade final in November, the illness he suffered in the first half of the year was only a part of his issues. But, I would 100% bet my house on him breaking the Top 100 in 2025 again.
It’s a bit more tricky with Lukas Klein and Vit Kopriva. The Slovak had some fabulous matches at the beginning of the season (remember the five-setter with Alexander Zverev at the Australian Open?), but then wasn’t clutch when the chances to go even higher in the rankings showed up. Kopriva wasn’t defending much in the first half of the year and went the ATP Tour route (maybe a bit too heavily) with minimal success. Will either of them make my 2025 list? That remains undecided.
Way too bold section (position at the start of the season -> highest rank achieved in 2024):
- Alexander Blockx (350 -> 204)
- Arthur Fery (271 -> 229)
- Mark Lajal (206 -> 191)
- Dino Prizmic (178 -> 169)
Dino Prizmic had so much hype at the end of last year and I kind of got peer-pressured into picking him as one of the last players on my list. But I don’t necessarily regret it, even if he wasn’t ready to do it in 2024 regardless of struggling with his health most of the season. If I decide to make that selection again for next year, this time it will be entirely my decision as I grew to appreciate his game a bit more even during this stop-start campaign.
Arthur Fery was a little out there and while his health was a disaster most of the year too, I don’t think that would have worked out in 2024 anyway. I was expecting a bigger jump from Mark Lajal, but can’t be too disappointed with that selection given some of his finer moments this season like the big stage appearance against Carlos Alcaraz at Wimbledon. Alexander Blockx I wrote about as my very last pick, fully aware that it’s likely too early and just wanting to spice things up a little bit more. Is he lined up for a great 2025 campaign? I believe so and he just picked up 100 points for a fantastic run at the Challenger in Kobe. With that in mind, I’ll give you a small spoiler and say I’ll happily pick him again next year.
Main photo credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
