ATP Masters 1000 Montreal 1/16-Finals
Arnaldi – Khachanov: 08.08.2024 18:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting
Matteo Arnaldi has lost three of his last five matches. Last week in Paris, Arnaldi lost in the second round of the Olympic Games against Koepfer in three tight sets. Here in Montreal, Arnaldi defeated McDonald in three tight sets. McDonald won the first set, and was even 3-2 up in the second set with a break-up. However, Arnaldi stepped up his level and turned the match around. Last year in Toronto, Arnaldi lost in the second round against Medvedev.
Karen Khachanov has lost three of his last five matches. The Russian is struggling with his form and is no longer part of the top 20 players in the world. Last week in Washington, Karen had an easy second round draw. However, Hong upset him in straight sets. It was another terrible performance from Khachanov. Here in Montreal, Karen defeated Diallo in straight sets. Around this time last year, Karen was still injured and did not play there in Montreal. His last appearance in Montreal was in 2022, when he lost in the second round.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Karen is the slight favorite in this matchup. He had an easy first round draw. However, we believe that Arnaldi is overall a better player at the moment. Khachanov has been struggling with his form for the last couple of months, so we believe that he will not go far this week.
That being said, Arnaldi winning is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Matteo Arnaldi winning @2.30 @bet365
Thompson – Zverev: 08.08.2024 18:30 CEST
H2H: 2-1
Jordan Thompson has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Washington, Jordan reached the quarterfinals where he lost against Korda in straight sets. A week before that, Thompson played the final in Atlanta where he lost against Nishioka in three tight sets. He is looking to get some success here in Canada to get into the top 30 in the rankings. Here in Montreal, Thompson defeated Draper in straight sets as we predicted. Thompson has been consistent throughout the whole season.
Alexander Zverev has won three of his last five matches. Last week in Paris, Zverev lost against Musetti in the quarterfinals of the Olympic Games in straight sets as we predicted. Sascha failed to defend his gold medal from the last Olympic Games. Back in 2017, Zverev secured his maiden title here in Montreal, by upsetting Federer in the final. Last year in Toronto, Zverev was absolutely demolished by Davidovich Fokina in the second round of the tournament.
Best Bet to Make
According to the bookies, Thompson is the big underdog in this matchup. After losing in the quarterfinals of the Olympic Games, Zverev will be emotionally exhausted. On the other hand, Jordan played a great first round match against Draper. We believe that he will have a decent chance against Zverev tonight.
That being said, Thompson covering the games handicap is a value bet.
Value bet/ the best odds: Jordan Thompson +3.5 games handicap @1.83 @bet365
Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports
