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ATP Rome Best Bets Including Medvedev vs Paul

Daniil Medvedev in action at the French Open.

ATP Rome 1/8-Finals

Hurkacz – Baez: 14.05.2024 15:30 CEST
H2H: first meeting

Hubert Hurkacz has won four of his last five matches. In the second round here in Rome, Hurkacz won against Nadal in straight sets as we predicted. Today, Hurkacz had another great performance, defeating Etcheverry in straight sets. Last week, Hurkacz lost in the 1/8-Finals of ATP Masters 1000 Madrid against Fritz in straight sets. Before that, Hubert had a solid tournament in Monte Carlo where he reached the 1/8-Finals as well. It is worth mentioning that, earlier in April, Hurkacz won a clay title in Estoril.

Sebastian Baez has won three of his last five matches. He is a top 20 player just based on his clay court performances. Here in Rome, Baez won his second round match against Lajovic in two tight sets. Today, Baez upset Rune in three sets as we predicted. He showed us how dangerous he can be on the clay courts. Before ATP Rome, Baez reached the 1/16-Finals in Madrid where he lost against Fritz in straight sets.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Baez is an underdog yet again. Even though Hurkacz has played two great matches in Rome so far, we believe that Baez will be his biggest challenge so far in the tournament. After today’s win against Rune, Baez gained much needed confidence, and we believe that he will keep this match tight.

That being said, Baez covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Sebastian Baez +3.5 games handicap @-180 @FanDuel

Paul – Medvedev: 14.05.2024 16:00 CEST
H2H: 0-3

Tommy Paul has won three of his last five matches. Being an American, Paul rarely plays on the clay courts. He also has not had any remarkable results on clay so far in his young career. Last year in Rome, Paul lost his first match against Garin in three sets. This is his second clay court tournament of the season. Paul won his first match against out-of-form Karatsev in straight sets. Today, Paul played a better match against Koepfer, who he won 6-4 6-3. However, once again, Paul struggled on his serve, offering seven breakpoints.

Daniil Medvedev has won four of his last five matches. In his first match here in Rome, Medvedev won against Draper in straight sets as we predicted. He did not serve well, but was just overall a better player. Today, Medvedev struggled against Medjedovic as we predicted. However, his experience prevailed in that match, and Medvedev managed to win in three tight sets in the end. Last year, Medvedev actually won the title in Rome, which was one of his most surprising titles in his career.

Best Bet to Make

According to the bookies, Medvedev is the favorite in this matchup. Both players do not love to play on the clay, but we believe that Medvedev is overall a better clay court player than Paul. He also won the title last year in Rome, so we believe that he loves to play here as well.

That being said, Medvedev covering the games handicap is a value bet.

Value bet/ the best odds: Daniil Medvedev -3.5 games handicap @-124 @FanDuel

Main Photo Credit: Susan Mullane-USA TODAY Sports

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