Let’s forget about the organizational mess, the WTA Finals is about to commence. It’s the Bacalar group competing first and it’s definitely the one that seems more tricky to predict. We’ve got two Grand Slam winners in this one, along with two women who have claimed WTA 1000 titles this year. Who will kick off their campaigns in style?
WTA Finals Day 1 Predictions
Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegula
Head-to-head: Pegula 2-1
This group is really competitive and part of that is the second and third highest-ranked players being so close to each other in terms of quality. Elena Rybakina won their only 2023 meeting in Miami, but it’s actually Jessica Pegula who has the overall lead in the head-to-head.
They also fared well at their last events before the WTA Finals. Rybakina beat Aryna Sabalenka on the way to the Beijing semifinals, whereas Pegula claimed the title in Seoul. It’s hard to split them but if the conditions in Cancun are really as windy as people say, the American might have issues executing her fast-paced, flat-hitting game. Rybakina wouldn’t be as tripped up by that with a very reliable point-winning engine (the serve).
Prediction: Rybakina in 3
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Maria Sakkari
Head-to-head: Sabalenka 6-3
Maria Sakkari wasn’t originally part of the WTA Finals line-up, but got the alternate spot after Karolina Muchova withdrew. She did win a big title in Guadalajara this year, but her Slam performances were extremely underwhelming and effectively kept her from being higher up in the rankings. The pressure is kinda off here and after all, she did beat Aryna Sabalenka at the last two editions of this event.
However, their matches haven’t been as competitive in 2023. Sabalenka was a beast the whole season and perhaps particularly in its first half, which is when she dismantled Sakkari at Indian Wells and Madrid. The Greek is entering this tournament as an alternate and that might help her play more freely, but even that might not be enough.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
Main Photo Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
