ATP Indian Wells Semifinal Prediction: Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe

Daniil Medvedev at ATP Indian Wells

The first of the ATP semifinal matches is a big one at Indian Wells. Frances Tiafoe may not be the player we expected to see at this stage but he’s a very welcome addition–a strong win in the quarterfinals against 2021 champ Cameron Norrie proved his US Open run was no fluke. Across the other side of the net, we’ve got Daniil Medvedev, the man on an 18-match win-streak, a run of three titles and who still (apparently) hates the conditions here. We’ve tried to predict this exciting encounter.

ATP Indian Wells Semifinal Prediction

Daniil Medvedev vs Frances Tiafoe

Head-to-head: Medvedev 4-0 Tiafoe

Just look at that head-to-head! Not only is Daniil Medvedev a comfortable 4-0 against Frances Tiafoe, he’s also 8-1 over the nine sets they’ve played. Tiafoe rarely won a free point on serve in their previous meetings and Medvedev’s ability to never miss has caused the American all kinds of problems.

The good news for Tiafoe fans, however?

  • Their last meeting came two years ago in Miami and since then Tiafoe has most definitely improved his game–his first serve delivery is more effective and his rally temperament is sterner than ever before.
  • All of their meetings so far have come on faster hard-courts, nothing close to the drudge of Indian Wells. Despite Medvedev’s run here, he still isn’t completely comfortable in these high bouncing, sludgy conditions. Conversely, the time afforded to Tiafoe’s abnormal forehand grip will allow him to set up that shot on return and mid-rally.

It’s unlikely this is as one-sided as their previous meetings with Tiafoe having already shown he could find a way through steely rally temperament in these conditions against Norrie.

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Nonetheless, we’ve got to go Medvedev. Quite a lot is pointing towards this being an uphill battle but it doesn’t matter. The Russian is in the most stubborn mood we’ve seen him in since early last year having saved 32 of the 36 break points he’s faced so far. It doesn’t matter how tough this gets–Medvedev will shrug to his coach, Gilles Cervara, and come up with the win someway, somehow.
Prediction: Medvedev in 3

Main Photo Credit: Andy Abeyta/The Desert Sun / USA TODAY NETWORK