It promises to be an entertianing day of quarterfinal action at the ATP Indian Wells Masters, with four intriguing matches on the schedule in the Californian desert. As always, we here at LWOT will be offering our predictions for all four matches, but who will book their spot in the semifinals?
ATP Indian Wells Quarterfinal Predictions
Daniil Medvedev vs Alejandro Dadidovich Fokina
Head-to-head: Medvedev 2-0 Davidovich Fokina
Daniil Medvedev’s (ongoing) 17-match winning streak started against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina in the first round in Rotterdam, and it’s doesn’t look very likely to stop here. Medvedev clearly doesn’t like the court and conditions here at Indian Wells and has been struggling quite a bit, not least against Alexander Zverev who took him to a third-set tiebreak, but his advantage in this particular matchup is very clear, even on a very slow hard court, and with the kind of confidence he has at the moment, it’s hard to see what Davidovich Fokina can do to stop him.
Prediction: Medvedev in 2
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Cameron Norrie vs Frances Tiafoe
Head-to-head: Norrie 2-0 Tiafoe
Two very different players: Cameron Norrie is solid and consistent whilst Frances Tiafoe can be electric but is also not the most reliable performer on tour. While most players struggle in Indian Wells conditions, Norrie thrives in them. The 2021 champion has been once again playing at an amazing level here and his dominant win over Andrey Rublev shows that his chances of another title can’t be dismissed. He should have the edge here even if Tiafoe, who will doubtless have the crowd right behind him, could beat him on a good day.
Prediction: Norrie in 2
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Taylor Fritz vs Jannik Sinner
Head-to-head: Fritz 1-0 Sinner
Their one previous meeting was at this very event back in 2021 with Taylor Fritz winning in relatively straightforward fashion. The defending champion is looking to make a third consecutive semifinal at this tournament, something about the conditions here really seems to help his game, as well as the comfort of playing more-or-less on his home patch. On paper, Jannik Sinner is the more complete player and the one with the bigger upside, but the ball tends to fly in the desert and that doesn’t always help the big-hitting Italian. Expect Fritz to just about have the edge in this one.
Prediction: Fritz in 3
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Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassime
Head-to-head: Auger-Aliassime 3-0 Alcaraz
Probably the most anticipated match of the quarterfinals, between two young players who are expected to be mainstays at the top of the game for a long time. Felix Auger-Aliassime has a very convincing head-to-head advantage, including two wins in late 2022, but Carlos Alcaraz probably still comes into this one as the favourite. He’s clearly the more consistent player of the two, while Auger-Aliassime is very streaky and hasn’t exactly been at his best so far at the ATP Indian Wells Masters. He miraculously saved six match points against Tommy Paul in the previous round, it remains to be seen whether that will give him new life or just delay the inevitable here. The latter seems more likely.
Prediction: Alcaraz in 3
Main photo credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
