First round action continues on day two of the Mutua Madrid Open, the fourth WTA 1000 level event of the season. Iga Swiatek won the first three 1000 level tournaments of 2022, but the world #1 was forced to withdraw from Madrid due to fatigue, leaving the door open for someone else to step up. Some of the main contenders will kick-start their Madrid campaigns on Thursday, including the fourth seeded Maria Sakkari who faces a potentially dangerous opponent in the form of Madison Keys. But what are the WTA Madrid best bets on day two?
WTA Madrid Day 2 – Best Bets
Anastasia Potapova vs Naomi Osaka
Anastasia Potapova is on a roll. Potapova arrived in Madrid fresh from winning a maiden WTA singles title in Istanbul via the qualifying draw. Another couple of wins in Madrid to get through qualifying means Potapova has now won 9 matches in a row. Meanwhile, Naomi Osaka hasn’t played a match since losing in the Miami Open final almost a month ago. This will be Osaka’s first match on clay in 2022, a surface she notoriously struggles with. The stage is set for Potapova to pull off the upset, or at least make this a very competitive match. Osaka is sure to be vulnerable in her first match on the red dirt in 11 months. If Potapova maintains her recent level, she will definitely cause Osaka problems.
Anastasia Potapova ML – 0.5 units @ +195
Anastasia Potapova +1.5 set handicap – 1 unit @ -124
(9) Emma Raducanu vs Tereza Martincova
Tereza Martincova was the favourite to beat Emma Raducanu when the pair met a few weeks ago on the red dirt in a Billie Jean King Cup tie. Raducanu won that match 7-5 7-5 and went on to beat a couple of relatively weak opponents to reach the Stuttgart quarterfinals. As a result, Raducanu heads into this match as a pretty clear favourite. I don’t agree with that, not much has changed. Raducanu is still desperately struggling to live up to the hype and hasn’t proven herself on clay. Martincova is a solid opponent and has every chance in this matchup. I see value with Martincova given the seemingly unjustified shift in the odds in this matchup.
Tereza Martincova ML – 1.5 units @ +164
(4) Maria Sakkari vs Madison Keys
Maria Sakkari hasn’t won a match since Indian Wells where she lost out to Iga Swiatek in the final, that’s three losses in a row including a retirement in Stuttgart a week ago. I expect things to change for the Greek in Madrid in a favourable first round matchup. Sakkari beat Madison Keys in straight sets in both of their previous meetings, a 6-2 6-2 win in Doha in 2021 and a 6-4 6-4 at the Australian Open in 2020. Keys is in a form slump of her own having won 4 of her last 10 matches. The American tends to struggle in these types of matchups and hasn’t won a match in Madrid since 2016, that might not be a coincidence. The high altitude conditions in Madrid means the ball fly off the racquet, someone like Keys can struggle to control their power in such conditions. I highly doubt Keys will randomly produce a solid enough effort in unfavourable conditions against a consistent, top quality opponent such Sakkari.
Maria Sakkari ML – 1.5 units @ -181
Maria Sakkari -2.5 game handicap – 1 unit @ -135
Recommended selections are based on a 5-unit betting system where 1 unit is a minimum stake, and 5 units is the maximum stake.
This article is intended for entertainment purposes only. LWOS makes no guarantees that the picks will win. Only gamble where it is legal to do so, and only amounts you can afford to lose. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Embed from Getty Images