The NFL MVP award is not the Most Valuable Player award. It is the award that is given to the best quarterback playing on the best offense. Of course, this assumes his team has enough success, and he is playing at a relatively high level. A secondary consideration will be given to any historical rushing season by a running back, but only if there is no obvious candidate in the first category. To back this up, here is the list of winners the last 10 seasons.
Comparing the Tom Brady MVP Case to Other Candidates
MVP Winners Since 2006:
LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. Set the touchdown record.
Tom Brady in 2007 and 2010. In both seasons the Patriots cracked 500 points AND had the best record in the league.
Peyton Manning in 2008, 2009, 2013. In 2009 and 2013 he had the best record in the league. In 2008 Manning was the only great quarterback who played on a good team. (Indianapolis went 12-4).
Aaron Rodgers in 2011 and 2014. Over 500 points, best record in the league in 2011. In 2014, tied for best record in the league, plus most points scored in the league.
Adrian Peterson in 2012. Rushed for over 2,000 yards
Cam Newton in 2015. Went 15-1, scored 500 points.
In conclusion: The rules are simple. If the best team has a dominant quarterback and that player is performing at a high level, he gets the award.
This year, the best team is the New England Patriots. Tom Brady is playing at an extremely high level, some of the best football of his entire career. He finished the season with a ridiculous 28-2 touchdown to interception ratio – the best in league history. He also earned an 11-1 record in the 12 games he was allowed to play this season. His sole loss was a comeback attempt that ended on the one yard line against a very strong opponent (Seattle Seahawks). Because of his efforts, the Patriots finished a league best 14-2, and earned the top seed in the AFC playoffs. It’s a crucial seeding, as it allows them to face the Houston Texans this weekend instead of the much more dangerous Kansas City Chiefs or Pittsburgh Steelers. You can’t get any more value than that.
The Candidates
Brady was suspended for the first four games of the NFL season – this left the door open for a quarterback to submit a truly great season and claim the award. It did not happen.
Aaron Rodgers played great down the stretch run but his team finished just 10-6, not good enough.
Derek Carr was a worthy candidate, but due to injury his team failed to claim a bye and earned just a wild card playoff berth. This in itself is not crippling, but the team also lacked the same point output of the other potential candidates.
It can be argued that the Dallas Cowboys were the best team, not the Patriots. This is a valid argument, but neither Dak Prescott or Ezekiel Elliott had historic seasons (when you ignore their rookie status), and their combined success hurts the other’s MVP candidacy, fair or not.
The player with the strongest claim on the award then, other than Brady, is Matt Ryan. His team finished with a monstrous 540 points and they earned the second seed and a bye in the NFC playoffs. But Atlanta was not a dominant team all season long. They required the Seahawks to stumble late in the season to open the door to a playoff bye. There was also a reason nobody was talking about the Atlanta Falcons historic offense all season long – it wasn’t historic.
They scored 154 points in the final four weeks when they played four straight warm weather games against terrible teams who were all out of the playoffs. The schedule broke well for them and they never had to play a road game in bad weather. The closest they came was a November date against the Philadelphia Eagles – they scored 15 points and lost.
Their point total was built on a scheduling quirk. They were great on offense, not historic.
Then there is this: Ryan won as many games while playing 16 contests as Brady was able to playing just 12. Yes, Brady probably has the better team. But that is what this award is; the quarterback award given to the best candidate on the best team. The choice is clear.
The Counter Argument
The argument has been made that because the Patriots went 3-1 in the absence of Brady to begin the season, this disqualifies him. After all, they are great anyways, how much did he really contribute to their 14-2 record?
This argument makes no sense, and it actually strengthens the case for Brady.
Jimmy Garoppolo started the first two games without Brady. Garoppolo played very well while he was out there and led the Patriots to two victories. It is strange to hold it against Brady that the team was prepared to play without him when they had over one year’s advance notice that he would likely miss some regular season games. It is even stranger to take a two game sample and use that to extrapolate the Patriots would have dominated with anyone under center.
Garoppolo only started two games because he got hurt. Jacoby Brissett, a rookie, was forced to make the next two starts. He managed a 1-1 record but threw for just 308 yards combined in both games. Brissett himself got injured in his first start. He only made the second start because they had no other quarterback on the roster healthy enough to play. When Brady returned, Brissett was sent to injured reserve.
In other words, Brady missed four games, and in this four week time frame the Patriots had to use as many quarterbacks (2) in those four games as they had used in the last 15 years since Brady took over.
So the argument is that despite having zero healthy quarterbacks, the team was going to be just fine without him. They were still going to have loads of success. They were still going to win 14 games and earn the top seed on the conference. They were still going to be the best team in the league. Right. They would have found a way to be good, but they clearly wouldn’t have been in the same position.
And, again, this award is not about being good. It is about being the best. The Patriots are the league’s best team. Tom Brady is their stabilizer and their leader. And he’s most deserving of the league MVP.
