In my preparations for the 2020 season, I noticed striking similarities between the 2020 Cleveland Browns and these teams that experienced “overnight success.” The similarities were especially evident when comparing them with last year’s San Francisco 49ers: the 2020 Browns are the 2019 49ers. The Browns currently sit in the middle of the pack as far as Super Bowl odds (30-1). This makes them an extreme value play to take home the Lombardi Trophy in Tampa Bay in February.
If you rewind a few years, the Browns would seem like the least likely team in the city to capture a championship. The team finished with a historically awful 1-31 record during the 2016 and 2017 season under Hue Jackson. The Cleveland sports scene hasn’t been dubbed ‘The Factory of Sadness” erroneously. LeBron James was able to exorcise the city’s championship demons by bringing home an NBA championship in 2016, but the city has seen the Cavs return to futility. Cleveland fans are eagerly awaiting another “King” to lead them back to championship-level play.
The NFL, however, is a volatile league, with a lot of variance from year to year. Scheduling and draft pick advantages for bad teams can help kick-start turnarounds. The league’s recent history provides plenty of examples. In 2017, NFL fans were on the precipice of a Nick Foles vs. Blake Bortles showdown in the Super Bowl. 2018 saw the Los Angeles Rams take a great leap forward, leading to a Super Bowl appearance. Most recently, the San Francisco 49ers were able to go from four wins in the previous season to a Super Bowl appearance. All of these rapid turnarounds relied on a similar formula; a strong running game, a lack of turnovers, and a formidable defense led by strong pass rushes.
Let’s take a look at three reasons this year’s Browns could be like last year’s 49ers.
How the 2020 Cleveland Browns Could Replicate the Run of the 2019 San Francisco 49ers
1. The Quarterback / Head Coach Combo
Kevin Stefanski signed a five-year deal with the Browns back in January to become the team’s new head coach. Stefanski brings plenty of experience to Cleveland, despite being only 38 years old. He most recently served as the Minnesota Vikings offensive coordinator. Stefanski held multiple positions on the offensive side of the ball prior to last season’s promotion. During this tenure, Stefanski has earned a reputation as a young, budding offensive mind. This is a common trait in recent NFL teams that have had quick turnarounds. Sean McVay had just turned 32 when he led the Rams to the Super Bowl two seasons ago. The 49ers’ Kyle Shanahan had just turned 40 this past season when he led his troops to the big stage (Shanahan was the offensive coordinator of the Falcons in Super Bowl LI at age 37).
In particular, there are many common threads between Stefanski and Shanahan. Both of these guys feature run-heavy offenses that inherently limit risk. Shanahan’s offense ran the ball 51 percent of the time last year, good for second in the league, while Stefanski’s Vikings ran the ball 48 percent of the time, good for fourth in the league. This is even more important when taking into consideration who is playing quarterback underneath each of these play-callers.
The incumbent in San Francisco, Jimmy Garoppolo, shares many characteristics with the Browns’ quarterback, Baker Mayfield. Both of these quarterbacks have been notorious for bad judgment and turnover-prone play at times. Garoppolo’s success in his first full season under Shanahan bodes well for Mayfield’s chances of succeeding under Stefanski. Shanahan’s philosophy is to rely on a strong running game whenever possible. Remember the NFC Championship when Shanahan was scrutinized for only allowing Garoppolo to throw eight times? The 49ers would not have been in a position for success if Shanahan hadn’t limited Garoppolo. Garappolo’s propensity to throw passes directly at defenders was a problem at times for the 49ers. If Shannahan had unleashed an aerial attack, Garoppolo’s turnover numbers could’ve been similar to Mayfield’s. Garoppolo was only a pawn in the game for Shanahan, not the focal point for the offense.
This same logic applies to Baker Mayfield under Stefanski this year. Mayfield struggled terribly last year with interceptions. He threw 21, which was the second-most in the league. That number should come down drastically this year. Under Stefanski, the Vikings’ Kirk Cousins threw a career-low six interceptions last season. He threw double-digit interceptions in every other season that he started all sixteen games. Cousins also led an offense that was ninth in third-down conversion percentage last season. The Vikings ranked 26th the previous season, despite largely having the same personnel.
This sudden uptick in performance seems to be directly correlated with the tutelage of Kevin Stefanski. This doesn’t necessarily mean that Mayfield will be as efficient in the turnover department as Cousins this upcoming season. But even a reasonable reduction in turnovers, combined with a projected improvement in third-down offense (22nd last season), would give the Browns a much greater chance at success and allow them to rely on their other strengths.
2. The Offensive Weapons
The offensive rosters of last year’s 49ers and this year’s Browns are built in an eerily similar fashion. Both teams highlight the importance of an efficient ground game by employing a stable of talented running backs. The 49ers utilized a three-headed monster of a backfield featuring Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman, and Matt Breida last season. These three combined to lead a rushing attack that averaged 4.8 yards per carry and 153 yards per game, good for second-best in the league. Stefanski’s offense in Minnesota came in at ninth, averaging 127 rushing yards per game. This was in spite of the fact that feature back Dalvin Cook suffered injuries down the stretch run and also in spite of a lack of depth in Minnesota’s backfield.
Stefanski now inherits one of the most dynamic backfield duos in recent NFL history in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. Chubb rushed for nearly 1,500 yards last year in only his second season, averaging an astounding 5.0 yards per carry. He still has plenty of gas left in the tank at only 24 years old and should be the lead dog in the dynamic attack. Depth is of the utmost importance in NFL backfields where injuries and fatigue run rampant.
You’d be hard-pressed to name a better backup than Kareem Hunt. Hunt led the league in rushing only a few years ago and has averaged a career clip of 4.7 yards per carry. Again, he led the league in rushing only three seasons ago and he is the backup. He only carried the ball 43 times last year due to a suspension. This is a positive sign if anything, indicating that his legs are fresh and he is ready to go in Stefanski’s run-centric system. The Browns have an unprecedented combination of depth, youth, and talent in the backfield. This combined with innovative, fresh offensive schemes can’t help but conjure memories of the 49ers magical turnaround last year.
The Browns offense isn’t short on talent at other skill positions either. This is another similarity that they share with the 2019 49ers. For the 49ers, Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel formed a formidable wide receiver duo on the outside. The Browns actually have a talent advantage in this department. Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry are one of the most talented receiver tandems in the NFL. The entire offense stalled last year under then-head coach Freddie Kitchens and these two never quite got in a rhythm. With creative play-calling, even good receivers like Samuel and Sanders flourished and delivered great performances. It is truly scary to imagine what talents like Beckham and Landry can do if Stefanski’s playcalling can even enter the same stratosphere as Shanahan’s.
But what about the tight end position? We all know that George Kittle was the focal point of last year’s 49ers offense. The Browns won’t be able to replicate the season Kittle had, but new acquisition Austin Hooper should provide instant production where it was severely lacking last year. The fact that the Browns signed Hooper to a four-year, $42 million contract, making him the highest-paid tight end in the league, should tell you the emphasis they want to make on getting the tight end position involved in the offense, like last year’s 49ers. It is not a coincidence that the two best tight ends in the league both played in the Super Bowl last year. In what is commonly labeled a “copycat” league, the Browns adopted the blueprint of other successful teams by getting a playmaker at the tight end slot.
3. The Defense
The defensive side of the ball for the 2020 Browns also draws many parallels to the 2019 49ers. The Browns hired Joe Woods as their defensive coordinator this past off-season. Woods actually served as the 49ers defensive backs coach this past season. Woods helped guide a 49er secondary that was the best in the league statistically, allowing only 169 passing yards per game last season. That is an extraordinary number in this era of the NFL. Even mediocre quarterbacks sling the rock for 300 or more yards on a weekly basis.
Woods was also the defensive backs coach for the historically dominant 2015 Denver Broncos. This is the same unit that carried a decrepit Peyton Manning to a Super Bowl championship. He inherits a defense that is extremely talented, yet underachieved last year, ranking 21st in yards allowed per game. Woods should be no stranger to this type of situation. The 49ers similarly underachieved in 2018, ranking only 13th in total defense, yet were able to make the leap all the way to the second-best unit in 2019.
Both of the aforementioned teams seem to be talented in the same positions. The heartbeat of the 49ers defense last season was the potent pass rush, led by talented rookie Nick Bosa. The Browns are also anchored by phenom pass rusher Myles Garrett. Both defenses also have talented secondaries as well. Woods was able to get the most out of a secondary highlighted by Richard Sherman, even though he was far past his prime at 32 years of age. He is now bequeathed a secondary of high draft picks in Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams, who are entering their second and third years, respectively. The talent in the secondary is certainly there and Woods’ pedigree suggests that there is no better person to harvest it.
2020 Cleveland Browns Analysis
The more I researched, the more this seemed like a deliberate attempt by the 2020 Browns to emulate the 2019 49ers winning formula. With their unique blend of high-end talent and innovative coaching, we could see similar success from the Browns this season. The Browns are currently priced at +550 to win the AFC North, +1500 to win the AFC, and +3000 to win the Super Bowl. I would hitch my wagon to this club on all of those wagers and hope that the blueprint that worked for the 49ers can produce similar results for this year’s Browns squad.
(All odds provided by oddsshark.com)
