For the last two months, I have been working through NFL data from 2002-2018 with the goal of coming up with a fantasy football equivalent for “Wins Above Replacement”. I, unfortunately, was not able to come up with that in time for this season, but I was able to come up with an expected “Points Above Replacement” (PAR) statistic. This statistic is exactly as sounds, the number is the expected number of points, per week, that a player is expected to score over a replacement-level player. From the PAR statistic, I have created my fantasy football quarterback rankings heading into this season.
Quarterbacks are known to be one of the deepest position groups for fantasy football, yet are also usually the highest scoring. Based on the data for the past seventeen seasons, a replacement-level quarterback is expected to score 13.98 points per week. All PAR values are based on this replacement value.
Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings
| Rank | Player | PAR | Rank | Player | PAR |
| 1 | Patrick Mahomes | 6.92 | 16 | Ben Roethlisberger | 1.42 |
| 2 | Deshaun Watson | 5.88 | 17 | Tom Brady | 1.13 |
| 3 | Baker Mayfield | 5.27 | 18 | Lamar Jackson | 0.79 |
| 4 | Aaron Rodgers | 4.93 | 19 | Mitch Trubisky | 0.22 |
| 5 | Cam Newton | 4.54 | 20 | Derek Carr | -0.18 |
| 6 | Matt Ryan | 4.28 | 21 | Kirk Cousins | -0.89 |
| 7 | Carson Wentz | 3.91 | 22 | Jimmy Garoppolo | -1.41 |
| 8 | Russell Wilson | 3.77 | 23 | Josh Allen | -1.79 |
| 9 | Andrew Luck | 3.46 | 24 | Nick Foles | -2.26 |
| 10 | Drew Brees | 3.12 | 25 | Dak Prescott | -2.44 |
| 11 | Philip Rivers | 2.98 | 26 | Matthew Stafford | -2.76 |
| 12 | Jameis Winston | 2.61 | 27 | Joe Flacco | -3.01 |
| 13 | Kyler Murray | 2.48 | 28 | Josh Rosen | -3.29 |
| 14 | Sam Darnold | 2.02 | 29 | Eli Manning | -3.55 |
| 15 | Jared Goff | 1.97 | 30 | Andy Dalton | -3.81 |
Key Findings
Patrick Mahomes is above and beyond any other player, expected to score over a point more per game than any other quarterback. His MVP season last year was historic and, as my fellow writer David Latham points out, that success is likely not repeatable. However, if he is even 75% of what he was last season, he still has the potential to easily be the top fantasy quarterback taken. However, I agree with David. Unless it is a two-quarterback or six-point passing touchdown league, Mahomes at pick 18, per ESPN ADP, is way too high given the depth at the position.
Tom Brady might still be at the top of his game from a football perspective, he is simply not a viable fantasy quarterback in standard leagues. This is not fully on Brady with how deep the quarterback position is in fantasy. However, last season the Patriots showed they are starting to run the ball even more, Rob Gronkowski retired, and Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon being the only receivers Brady has ever thrown to before, the Patriots offense will likely continue to change from the days where Brady threw the ball 600+ times per season.
Cam Newton may be the best value at quarterback this season, based on his current ADP. While Mahomes, Deshaun Watson, and Aaron Rodgers all going in the first 48 picks, Newton is currently being drafted around pick 81. Newton, who was hurt last year, had surgery to clean out his shoulder this offseason. He reportedly looks like a completely different quarterback from last year and is expected to perform like most thought the former Heisman-winning quarterback would perform.
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