One of the most overlooked positions is a team’s fantasy football defense. Most fantasy players either use the default league site rankings or pick a defense that is commonly talked about in the media. Defenses are notoriously volatile and the most common way to score negative points. But are there specific defenses to take? Does success in previous years have any indication on current year success?
Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters
The Process: Analyzing Fantasy Football Defense
I calculated standard PPR scoring for all players and team defenses from 2002-2018. For this specific analysis, I focused on the team defenses. I created a table looking at the average points per game scored by each team each year. From here, I looked at the scoring ranges for the seasons and the rankings of each team in each season.
Team Scoring
Over the past 17 seasons, on average, the high scoring defense scores 12.5 points-per-game. The lowest scoring defense scores, on average, 4 points. That 8.5 point differential is enough to make or break a team. With every point being so critical, selecting a good defense is pivotal in a team’s success.
Defenses to Take
While so many factors (i.e. eleven players working to get points as opposed to one, match up, etc.) affect defensive scoring, it is hard to imagine there being any consistency year over year in the success of team defenses. This is accurate to some degree. However, defensive schemes, coaching, and leadership are all intangible factors that can lead to some consistency in defenses.
After looking at the ranking, there are two defenses that have been consistently top-tier over the last 17 seasons. Both teams have been in the top half of the league 15 of the 17 seasons, finishing number one overall twice each. Each team has been in the top-five seven times each. Both teams have had five defensive coordinators over the past 17 seasons. One man was the defensive coordinator for both of these teams at some point in the last 17 seasons. Has anyone been able to guess the two teams yet? They are the Baltimore Ravens and the New England Patriots. These two teams have been the only teams to show consistent success over the past 17 years.
Defenses to Avoid
Just like how there are defenses who have been able to consistently find success, there are defenses that fantasy players should outright avoid altogether. However, it seems a lot easier to be consistently bad than it does be consistently good. 20 teams finished in the bottom half of the league in defense at least eight of the last 17 seasons. 12 teams finished in the bottom half in 10 or more seasons.
The second-worst team finished in the bottom half of the league in 16 of the 17 seasons analyzed. Their only non-bottom half finish, they were a whopping 12. Coincidentally, that year was the second-worst year for fantasy defense scoring as a whole. However, there is some hope going forward. This team was the brunt of many jokes for the longest time but has quickly become the hot pick to win their division. This team is the Cleveland Browns. While they are looking a lot better for the 2019 season, they are still a defense to avoid until proven otherwise.
The absolute worst defense over the past 17 years finished in the top-five zero times and top 10 only twice. The team finished in the bottom ten 11 times and the bottom five nice times, finishing dead last a league-high four of 17 seasons. That equates to 23.5% of the time since 2002 they have been dead last. That team, and it should be no surprise after their infamous trade of Khalil Mack, is the Oakland Raiders. In my analysis, they were in the bottom three of every single analytic I looked at. If you are trying to win, stay away from the Raiders defense.
An honorable mention goes to the teams that scored in the bottom half of the league in 10 or more seasons. Those teams are, in alphabetical order, the Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers, and Washington Redskins.
Currently, per ESPN, the Chicago Bears defense is the number one defense being drafted at the beginning of the sixth round. This is way too high. The Bears defense was so prolific in the 2018 season due to the turnovers they were able to force. That kind of production is not sustainable. The Patriots and Ravens defense have a current ADP of 137 (11th round) and 159.5 (13th round), respectively. At the risk of ruining my teams in upcoming drafts, if either of those are available in the 9th-10th round, I am snatching them in a heartbeat and feeling like I got the steal of the draft.
Fantasy Football Draft Headquarters
Main photo:
Embed from Getty Images
