First of all, this offseason feels like the longest wait ever. July cannot get here fast enough. The preseason Las Vegas pundits have solidly put the New Orleans Saints as one of the favorites to come out of the NFC this year. While the desert doesn’t give a Saints record prediction, they do give New Orleans 10/1 odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
NFL futures odds from @WilliamHillUS to win Super Bowl LIV: pic.twitter.com/jEvYF2WhGI
— Covers (@Covers) June 7, 2019
Last year the Saints were thought to be contenders. Ironically, the Atlanta Falcons had about the same odds before the season. Other teams listed above the Saints were the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Minnesota Vikings.
Updated 2018-19 Super Bowl Odds. Which team would you put ? on? pic.twitter.com/uk8wIRmySe
— uSTADIUM (@uSTADIUM) July 31, 2018
Early 2019 New Orleans Saints Record Prediction
Studying the NFL Records Over Time
None of those three teams listed made the playoffs in 2018-19′ season. Obviously, looking into the crystal ball isn’t exactly a perfect science. On the other hand, two of the four listed did come through. Although we know one team shouldn’t have been there. We all know who that is. The New England Patriots won it all, yet the oddsmakers have them listed fourth this year.
Putting all that aside, the evidence from history is more revealing. That will be delved into in just a second. This is about me for once. And I’ve been doing this for the last five years. However, since age has gotten the best of me, the last three years are the only pure predictions that come to mind. Last year the prediction was 10-6. In 2017, when everyone had the Saints being mediocre at best, my prediction was 12-4. In 2016, no one really had any hope. That year my 6-10 prediction was slightly lower than the 7-9 finish.
Usually, there is one final prediction I call for somewhere in July or August. But this year after studying patterns of the last 20 years, the outlook is much clearer. No one would dare predict the Saints missing the playoffs. Or at least anyone near the city of New Orleans. There are the mainstream guys that usually stay within the norm. Predicting 11-5 is about the average for this years’ season.
Optimism is High for the Upcoming Season
John Sigler from the Saints Wire (USA Today) sees an 11-5 record. ESPN is a bit bolder with a 13-3 record. Scott Rabalais from the Advocate predicts a 12-4 season. There are oodles and oodles of predictions out there. Most range from about 11-5 to 13-3. Now here are some facts to go by. And again, it’s way too early to be making any type of reasonable logical prediction at this point. But it’s June, so it’s our job to make our best estimation.
Not every statistic is absolute foolproof evidence for the future. Especially, when the sample size is small or skewed. The Saints finished 13-3 last year. I’ve taken every team in the NFC from 1978 when they went to a 16 game season. It’s the year AFTER the 13-3 season that was more interesting to look at. There were 35 seasons from 1978 when an NFC team finished 13-3. There is some very interesting results:
13-3 Teams and the Year After
NFC Teams since 1978 that finished 13-3 or better and their win-loss record the year after:
**- Strike shortened season
*- Team equaled the same record the year after
New Orleans Saints: (2009) 13-3 to 11-5
Carolina Panthers: (2015) 15-1 to 6-10
Atlanta Falcons: (1998) 14-2 to 5-11
(2010) 13-3 to 10-6
(2012) 13-3 4-12
Minnesota Vikings: (1998) 15-1 to 10-6
(2017) 13-3 to 8-7-1
Green Bay Packers: (1996) 13-3 to 13-3*
(2007) 13-3 to 6-10
(2011) 15-1 to 11-5
Chicago Bears: (1985) 15-1 to 14-2
(2001) 13-3 to 4-12
(2006) 13-3 to 7-9
Dallas Cowboys: (1992) 13-3 to 12-4
(2007) 13-3 to 9-7
(2016) 13-3 to 9-7
Philadelphia Eagles (2017) 13-3 to 9-7
(2004) 13-3 to 6-10
New York Giants (1990) 13-3 to 8-8
(1986) 14-2 to 6-9**
Washington Redskins: (1991) 14-2 to 9-7
(1983) 14-2 to 11-5
Arizona Cardinals (2015) 13-3 to 7-8-1
Seattle Seahawks (2005) 13-3 to 9-7
(2013) 13-3 to 12-4
Los Angeles Rams: (1999) 13-3 to 10-6
(2001) 14-2 to 7-9
San Francisco 49ers: (1981) 13-3 to 3-6**
(1984) 15-1 to 10-6
(1987) 13-2** to 10-6
(1989) 14-2 to 14-2*
(1992) 14-2 to 10-6
(1994) 13-3 to 11-5
(1997) 13-3 to 12-4
(2011) 13-3 to 11-4-1
The results show that out of 35 seasons, there were only two teams that equaled the same record when finishing 13-3 or better. The 1989 San Francisco 49ers and the 1996 Green Bay Packers were the only two, that put on a season that duplicated the same record. Once again, this study was done only on NFC teams since 1978, when the league went to a 16 game season.
The average wins over the 35 seasons from one season to the next were about -4.5 games lower. In other words, the Saints went from a 13-3 record to an 11-5 record for a -2 difference from 2009 to 2010. On the other hand, the 1998 Atlanta Falcons went from 14-2 to a mere 5-11 in 1999 for a -9 difference. Still, the average is about -4.5 taking in all the data from over 35 seasons.
The Regular Season Will Be Tough Sledding
To sum it all up, the Saints will likely not top their 13-3 record from 2018. As a matter of fact, it’s more likely going by just the data, the record will be lower.
That being said, that’s still only a part of it. My prediction also has nothing to do with the controversial loss against the Rams last year. The biggest loss for me is the change of leadership in the locker room. Losing center Max Unger to retirement and running back Mark Ingram is going to be a huge void. A void that can be filled by another player on the field for sure. However, it’s impossible to measure the difference in losing quality leaders.
In addition, the concern about the secondary as a whole is concerning. The main concern is going down the stretch when the game on the line. Equally important, the slow starts have been the Achilles’ heel. Also, the Saints have had favorable bounces during the regular season. Definitely not the case in the playoffs. In the end, the Saints are going to make the playoffs. But they’ll have to do it on the road in 2019. My way too early New Orleans Saints record prediction is 9-7.
This could change after training camp. Regardless, the change wouldn’t be more than a one-game swing at most. So there it is. Honestly, the record is not as important as how they finish. Not many will agree with me on the 9-7 prediction. Be that as it may, the Saints can make another run with a few optimal bounces.
Main photo:
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