Taking an in-depth look at the Atlanta Falcons run game and Devonta Freeman’s return reveals a crucial matchup for their Week Five tilt versus the Pittsburgh Steelers.

The Falcons have lost the spine of their defense. With Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen and Deion Jones sidelined, opponents move the ball at will. Make no mistake, the Falcons offense is equipped for shootout after shootout. But at some point, you can’t rely on Matt Ryan putting up 35 every week.

The Return of Devonta Freeman Will Be Key for Atlanta Falcons in Week Five

The Importance of the Run Game

Nowadays, there is very little value to be found in running the ball. All advanced analysis points toward the pass being way more efficient. The passing game also scores at a higher rate. Naturally, in shootouts, the Falcons have relied on Ryan.

But for a team like the Falcons the run game does have its importance. Running the ball allows you to control the clock. This means you can hide a bad defense much better. Limiting the number of drives the opponent gets limits the exposure of the defense.

Without a run game, this task becomes much harder. The Falcons have so far slung the ball fantastically. They rank fifth in passing DVOA. But in terms of running the ball, they drop to 29th. Their time of possession per drive ranks 17th.

Just to illustrate what that means, consider the New York Giants. Their time of possession per drive ranks fourth and as an effect, they faced only 38 drives on defense. This ranks them as having faced the fewest drives per game on defense. The Falcons, on the other hand, have faced 43 drives so far. When your defense allows a league-worst 2.86 points per drive, those 5 extra drives means you gave up an added 14.3 points. The Falcons have lost their three losses by a combined margin of 13 points.

Clearly, even with an above average – let alone good – run game, the Falcons should have a better chance to hide their injury-depleted defense.

Devonta Freeman’s Return Means Good Things

The decline of the Falcons run game is partly to blame on Freeman missing three games. Of course, the run blocking wasn’t that great either. But Freeman’s absence as the most consistent runner in the Falcons backfield had a bigger impact. Tevin Coleman is a good running back, and Ito Smith looks fine so far. But those two don’t bring to the table what Freeman does.

In order to illustrate, we can simply take a look at the directions the Falcons were running so far in 2018. We can divide the directions for this purpose into three areas. Left side runs are runs around the left end and behind the left tackle. Mid runs are runs behind left guard, center, or right guard. And right side runs are runs behind right tackles and around the right end.

Runs Through the Middle Are Crucial

The Falcons have run only 23 percent of the time through the middle, by far the fewest of the league. The rest of the league averages (!) 57 percent. The second fewest runs up the middle came from Washington, which still managed 35 percent.

Make no mistake, part of this is scheme. The Falcons’ wide zone naturally leads to fewer runs through the middle. But last year Steve Sarkisian called 34 percent of his runs behind center or guard. What is different this year is that Freeman has missed three of four games.

When we take a look at how Freeman and Coleman have been used over the 22 games Sarkisian has called so far, we can see why that matters:

If you’re not familiar with success rate, anything above 45 percent is good, with values over 50 percent being really, really good.

We can see now how the Falcons run game operates. Freeman and Coleman complement each other perfectly. Freeman is a great back on all runs except to the right side. Coleman is below average everywhere except the right side.

Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman Complement Each Other

Those numbers explain why the Falcons have shied away from runs through the middle so far. Their primary guy for those runs has been missing. Coleman has yet to carry the ball a single time behind Alex Mack for instance. Sarkisian is knowing his limitations and calling the game accordingly.

This discrepancy in directional success rate is part of the reason why the debates in the mold of “Why not get rid of Free/Tev” are wrong-headed. The Falcons run game is working best when those two guys with their different style complement each other.

Also notice that this explains the general split of 60/40 when it comes to carries between Freeman and Coleman. Freeman simply offers more upside on more directions than Coleman.

This all becomes even more important when looking ahead to the Week Five opponent. Freeman’s return couldn’t happen at a better time.

Atlanta Falcons Versus Pittsburgh Steelers: Reclaiming the Trenches

The Steelers run defense is alright, but it has some interesting discrepancies when we look at the directions.

The Steelers are a good run defense almost in every direction, except for runs behind left tackle and runs through the middle.

We have already seen that without Freeman, Sark will most likely avoid the runs through the middle. And even those few that get called will not be exceptional with Coleman in the backfield.

But after Freeman’s return, this now becomes a viable tool to extend drives. Freeman also excels at runs behind left tackle (55 percent success rate over the last two seasons). Coleman only has a 38 percent success rate behind Jake Matthews in 2018.

The Outlook

The Falcons can increase their chance to win in Pittsburgh by using Devonta Freeman’s skillset as a good runner up the middle and behind left tackle. The Steelers allow a 75 percent success rate on runs behind left tackle so far. They give up 53 percent on runs behind center and 50 percent on runs behind right guard. Those are the weaknesses the Falcons have to exploit in order to keep their defense off the field.

With Devonta Freeman’s return this week, they have the perfect offensive weapon to achieve this.

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