Nostrathomas took a bit of a beating in Week Two, going 9-5-1 straight up but just 5-9-1 against the spread. Nostrathomas wasn’t the only prognosticator to take it on the chin last week. Sports books reported big revenues from Week Two games. Since our goal in this column is beating the spread, Nostrathomas has some work to do in Week Three.
Overall this season through two weeks, Nostrathomas is 4-3-1 against the spread with his top picks, 14-15-1 against the spread overall and 19-9-1 straight up.
For Week Three, Nostrathomas will start introducing readers to a few of the 23 statistics that he uses to analyze games. Those stats get more accurate and tell us more about teams as the season goes on, but we can start getting a few readings heading into the games.
Ride These Games to the Week Three Winners Circle
Green Bay Packers -3 vs Washington Redskins (Sunday 1 PM ET, FedEx Field, Washington, D.C.)
The Redskins have nine players on their injury report for Week Three, including starting cornerback Josh Norman with an illness. That’s one reason why Nostrathomas thinks you should lay the three points and take the road favorite.
There’s a second, statistical reason to take into account. A lot of people look at yardage when it comes to offensive or defensive effectiveness, but yards don’t go on the scoreboard. There is a better way of looking at effectiveness on offense or defense.
Take the yards gained and divide that by points scored. The Packers average 13.6 yards of offense per each point scored. Washington averages 23.1 yards of offense to score one point. That multiplies to the Redskins needing to gain an average of 161.8 yards on offense to score seven points.
Green Bay takes advantage of possessions and field position to put points on the scoreboard. The Redskins did that in Week One, but they were playing the Arizona Cardinals, which is arguably the league’s worst team through two weeks.
The Packers are the better team, and they’ve been tested by two of the best defenses in the NFL.
San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 (Sunday 1 PM ET, Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, MO)
The Chiefs are 2-0, outscoring the Los Angeles Chargers in Week One and the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week Two. Now they open their home schedule with San Francisco in Week Three.
There are a few stats that point this game towards the Chiefs. Kansas City is not only the highest scoring team in the NFL, but they’re also the best in converting yardage into points. The Chiefs average one point scored per 10.1 yards gained. That means for every average of 70.7 yards of offense, the Chiefs score seven points. Through two games, it has taken San Francisco an average of 139.1 yards to score those same seven. Pat Mahomes isn’t going to throw 80 touchdown passes this season, but right now he leads the highest-powered offense in the NFL.
Kansas City is also 14-5 in the month of September since Andy Reid took over as head coach (4-1 against NFC opponents). Take the Chiefs to open the season 3-0.
Chicago Bears -5 vs Arizona Cardinals (4:25 PM ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, AZ)
Quarterback Sam Bradford has only been sacked three times in Arizona’s first two games, but that protection has done nothing for the Cardinals’ offense. Now he’s going to face a defense that spent its first two games registering 10 sacks and five forced fumbles.
Arizona’s head coach Steve Wilks has already stated that rookie Josh Rosen won’t see the field in this game. That allows the Bears to prepare for the known quantity of Bradford leading the Cardinals’ offense.
That means even with the struggling Mitch Trubisky at quarterback, the Bears statistically have the better passing game and superior running game. In Week Three, Chicago breaks the .500 mark for the first time since the 2014 season.
Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Total 53.5 Points, Over (Monday Night Football, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL)
You don’t want to touch this game as far as the point spread is concerned. For the purposes of his against the spread record, Nostrathomas is picking the Buccaneers +1.5. What you do want to play in this game is the over, which is currently sitting at 53.5 points.
Both teams are racking up points on offense but struggle to stop opponents on defense. For Tampa Bay, Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s record in seasons past shows that a reversal in fortunes is coming soon, but not this week against the Steelers’ weak pass defense.
There’s no telling how deep the clubhouse problems go in Pittsburgh–which is why you can’t trust them to win this game–but it won’t affect their ability to put points on the scoreboard.
Expect the total score for this game to go over the 53.5 with these offenses.
Pad Your Parlay with the Following
Oakland Raiders vs Miami Dolphins -3 (1 PM ET, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL)
The Dolphins have won 11 of the past 13 meetings between these two teams. They’ve also won 11 of their last 12 against AFC and NFC West Division teams.
You could say that Miami’s two victories were against a couple of offensively-challenged teams in the Tennessee Titans and New York Jets. In Week Three, they have to try and shut down Derek Carr, who has two top targets in tight end Jared Cook and wide receiver Amari Cooper.
Still, of the 23 statistics that Nostrathomas uses to analyze games, 18 points to the Dolphins as having an overwhelming advantage going into this game. That and Miami’s record against western teams at home says to take the home favorite.
Cincinnati Bengals +3 vs Carolina Panthers (1 PM ET, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, NC)
Having your quarterback as your leading rusher is a tough way to win consistently in the NFL; it’s is a way of getting Cam Newton injured and having to rely on backup Taylor Heinicke.
Carolina is only 6-8 as home favorites the past two seasons. The Bengals have covered the spread in four straight and seven of their last nine.
Running back Joe Mixon will be out for the next two to four weeks with a knee injury, which is damaging to Cincinnati’s offense, but Andy Dalton has rediscovered the value of targeting A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd to ignite the Bengals’ offense.
Take the road dog to win and cover in this game.
Denver Broncos vs Baltimore Ravens -5.5 (1 PM ET, M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore, MD)
The Broncos are too offensively challenged to hang with the Ravens in Baltimore. In two games the Ravens have averaged 11.3 yards per point scored. The Broncos average 18.2 yards per point scored. Take the home team to win and cover.
The Don’t Waste Your Money Group
Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings -16.5 (1 PM ET, U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN)
Nostrathomas doesn’t recommend laying off this game because he doesn’t think Minnesota can’t cover the spread. This is the kind of game that screams backdoor cover. The Vikings are the superior team in all facets of the game, but the danger is them getting a large lead established then taking their foot off the gas.
Buffalo will be looking for progress wherever it can be found and could potentially slip past the spread by the end of the game.
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5 (1 PM ET, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL)
This game was off the board for most of the week with the unknown status of Titans’ quarterback Marcus Mariota and the nerve injury in his elbow.
Jacksonville won’t be down after their dominating victory over the New England Patriots. For the Jaguars, this is another revenge game. Tennessee swept the season series against Jacksonville last season.
Indianapolis Colts +6.5 vs Philadelphia Eagles (1 PM ET, Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, PA)
Carson Wentz is back this week, but the question will be how much rust does he have to shake off of his right arm. The one thing we do know is Andrew Luck has shown that he’s all the way back.
New Orleans Saints vs Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (1 PM ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, GA)
The Saints struggled to score last week against the Cleveland Browns. Right now, Atlanta is the more reliable team on both offense and defense.
New York Giants vs Houston Texans -6 (1 PM ET, NRG Stadium, Houston, TX)
Two games in, we have a pretty good idea of who the Giants are. We have yet to see Deshaun Watson regain the magic he showed last season before going down with a knee injury. Thing is, it took him a couple of games in 2017 before he broke out as a top quarterback. Odds are is the magic is still in there somewhere.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Los Angeles Rams -7 (4:05 PM ET, Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, CA)
Look for the first battle of Los Angeles to be taken by the Rams. They have the defense to go with enough offense to overcome the Chargers.
Dallas Cowboys vs Seattle Seahawks -1.5 (4:25 PM ET, CenturyLink Field, Seattle, WA)
This one is a tough pick between two disappointing teams. Nostrathomas says pick the home team in this one.
New England Patriots -7 vs Detroit Lions (Sunday Night Football, Ford Field, Detroit, MI)
Bill Belichick makes a habit of dominating former assistants in first meetings on opposite sides of the field. It’s tough to pick the Lions right now until they find a running game to match with Matthew Stafford‘s arm.
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