The Cleveland Browns surprised many draft experts with their selection of quarterback Baker Mayfield at number one overall in the 2018 NFL Draft. Now this preseason, the organization is trying to pull another “fast one” on the NFL public.
“I have not changed. I’m not going to change,” Browns coach Hue Jackson said according to NFL.com. “Tyrod Taylor‘s the starting quarterback here (Cleveland), and Baker’s the future of our organization.”
Mayfield is indeed the future of the Browns, but anything else Jackson or Browns general manager John Dorsey say about the team’s quarterback situation in August should be taken with a large grain of salt. Recent history both around the league and with the Browns suggests it’s likely Mayfield will start at some point in 2018.
Despite Hue Jackson’s Statements, It’s Hard to Believe Baker Mayfield Won’t Start in 2018
There’s something to be said about not starting a young signal caller too soon. Not much good can come from placing a player into a situation where he won’t succeed.
However, it’s obvious that “redshirting” and developing a quarterback behind a veteran isn’t the current norm around the league.
From 2010-17, NFL teams selected 22 quarterbacks in the first round of the draft. Of those 22 signal callers, 21 of them started at least one game during their rookie years.
The one exception was Jake Locker. Credit Locker being the only first-round quarterback to hold a clipboard his entire rookie season to Jeff Fisher‘s archaic coaching style. The Titans started 36-year-old, Matt Hasselbeck, that season and went 9-7.
Quarterbacks heralded enough to go early in the draft simply don’t sit in today’s modern NFL, especially if they went number one overall. Five quarterbacks went first overall in the draft from 2010-17 and four of them started from Day 1. The only one who didn’t was Jared Goff in 2016, and coincidentally enough, his coach was Jeff Fisher.
The last quarterback to go number one and not start at least one game during his rookie season was Carson Palmer in 2003. It’s not likely Mayfield will be the next.
Hue Jackson & the Browns Quarterback Carousel
Of course, history is just that — history — and really has no direct bearing on the Browns current quarterback situation. Teams picking first overall don’t often have very good quarterbacks, so the Browns possess a unique circumstance since they traded for Tyrod Taylor.
He’s never going to be an elite quarterback. Taylor has averaged 6.8 yards per attempt the last two seasons combined, but he limits his major mistakes. Taylor threw just 10 interceptions versus 31 touchdowns in 2016-17 with the Buffalo Bills, and last season, he led the league with a 1.0 interception percentage.
Limiting mistakes is exactly what the Browns need. Quarterback DeShone Kizer led the NFL with 22 interceptions and lost nine fumbles in 2017, leading to the Browns posting a ridiculously bad minus-28 turnover differential. To put that into perspective, the Denver Broncos had the second-worst turnover differential in the NFL last year at minus-17.
All the Browns might need to be competitive this season is a quarterback who doesn’t throw interceptions. Taylor is that exact guy, and still, it’s hard to believe Jackson’s words that Mayfield won’t see a single down.
While Kizer started 15 games last season, Jackson played quarterback roulette at various times during the season. The Browns benched Kizer, who was viewed as their future after his selection in the second round, in favor of Kevin Hogan in Week Six versus the Houston Texans. Jackson cited that it was “better for him and his development” that Kizer sit and back up Hogan.
Of course, that didn’t last long. Hogan threw three interceptions versus the Texans, and Kizer started the following week.
But Kizer tried to give the job away again in Week Seven against the Titans. Jackson benched him in the third quarter in favor of Cody Kessler. After an average-at-best two quarters from Kessler, it was back to Kizer in Week Eight.
It’s hard to explain why this quarterback carousel occurred. More than likely, Jackson was just looking for any type of spark to win a game.
Regardless, it’s hard to believe a comment in August from a coach with this quick a trigger finger on his starting quarterback. If the Browns continue their losing streak into October, Jackson’s seat may start to get warm and pressure is going to mount for Mayfield to start.
Let’s not forget, Cleveland is the very town that four years ago was calling for another first-round quarterback, Johnny Manziel, to see the field even though Brian Hoyer led them to a 7-4 start. After a couple poor performances, Hoyer sat and the first-round rookie played.
Again, that’s just history and has no direct bearing on the present. Even still, the evidence overwhelming suggests Mayfield won’t spend the entire 2018 season on the bench.
That’s the nature of the business. Nothing Jackson or the Browns say in August is going to change that.
