After nursing an ACL injury to finish 2021 and the start of 2022, Chris Godwin finally had a ‘normal’ season last year. Godwin picked up right where he left off, reaching 1,000 receiving yards for the fourth time in five years. Returning from a significant injury was a major obstacle, but it wasn’t the only one he faced.
Chris Godwin 2024 Redraft Profile
Looking Back at 2023
Entering last season, there were plenty of reasons to doubt Tampa Bay’s offense. Replacing Tom Brady with Baker Mayfield, whose career was spiraling, caused considerable concern. Along with numerous other changes to the Buccaneers roster and coaching staff, the situation was entirely different in Tampa. Sportsbooks expected them to be one of the league’s worst teams, setting the line at just 6.5 wins.
None of this phased Godwin. He wound up with 83 receptions for 1,024 yards on 131 targets. This stat line is nearly identical to what we’ve come to expect from Godwin, and you couldn’t tell that anything had changed in Tampa Bay off these numbers alone. Even underlying stats like target share, average depth of target, and air yards share were in line with (or better than) his typical output.
Despite this, his fantasy points per game reached its lowest point since 2018. Godwin finished as the WR34, averaging 12.3 points per game. The most valid excuse for this poor finish was the lack of touchdowns. He only reached the endzone twice, the lowest tally since his rookie season. An underwhelming touchdown total can be expected when playing opposite 6’5″ superstar Mike Evans. Red zone targets naturally gravitate his way rather than anybody else. Even still, a player of Godwin’s caliber expects to hit pay dirt a few more times than he did.
Expectations for This Season
Tampa Bay’s offense underwent minimal changes from a personnel standpoint this offseason. Their depth chart is nearly identical to last year. The most notable change in West Florida is their new offensive coordinator. Former Buccanneers offensive coordinator Dave Canales became head coach of the Carolina Panthers. His departure was anticipated as this “QB whisperer” helped Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield turn their careers around.
Replacing Canales is new hire Liam Coen, who’s publicly discussed plans for Godwin’s utilization. Coen intends on using Godwin as a slot receiver much more this season. 2023 was an outlier for how infrequently Godwin lined up in the slot, so this is a return to normalcy. He was in the slot on just 32.1% of snaps last year, far lower than his career average around 55%.
Room for Growth?
Father time is undefeated, and his next victim could be Mike Evans. Although Evans has shown no signs of slowing down, the pillar of consistency has to fall at some point. Evans turns 31 next month, a typical age for wide receivers to begin their descent into retirement. Even if Evans remains healthy and productive, Godwin has proven time and time again that they can coexist.
ADP vs Projections
Godwin is currently the WR36 off the board in Underdog drafts, which is an apparent value. He’s a steady producer with a safe floor who’s shown the upside of being a top-10 receiver multiple times. He’s the WR29 in my rankings and should go far sooner than his ADP suggests.
My 2024 Projection for Godwin:
143 targets, 93 receptions, 1105 yards, 5 TD
233.5 PPR points
13.7 PPG
Main Photo: [Kim Klement Neitzel] – USA Today Sports
