With one week remaining in the regular season and the Vikings playoff odds hanging on by a thread, it’s natural to start reflecting on the season and looking forward to what’s to come this offseason. The unfortunate fact is that several Vikings pending free agents likely just experienced their last game at US Bank Stadium Sunday night as members of the team. It’s even more unfortunate that their final memory at home could be a blowout loss to the Packers.
The list of Vikings pending free agents is littered with longtime stars who will likely find themselves in the Vikings Ring of Honor someday. It’s a natural progression as the team continues its transition to fit the vision of the new front office.
General Manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah and his staff deserve credit for how they’ve managed the transition to date. Many front offices come in and decide to blow the whole thing up right away to make a statement. Often that leads to rosters lacking veteran leadership and direction. The Vikings have had plenty of young players go through a hasty development the past two years, in part because of the leadership of some of the guys who are slated to possibly move on this offseason. Now let’s look at which players are slated to hit free agency and how likely it is they could return to Minnesota in 2024.
Minnesota Vikings Pending Free Agents and Odds They’ll Return
Kirk Cousins: 25% Chance to Return
A quality starting quarterback is rarely able to hit true free agency in the NFL. Kirk Cousins, ever the pioneer for maximizing quarterback earnings, will be doing so for an unprecedented second time this year. The Vikings may be regretting putting language in his contract that makes him immune to the franchise tag. There is however still mutual respect between Cousins and the organization, leaving the door open for a return. Cousins even came out shirtless with his son to rile up the crowd pregame Sunday night, despite being injured. That’s just one of many examples of the bond Cousins has formed with the team and its fanbase.
At the end of the day though the NFL is a business and money is going to be a factor. There is very likely going to be a team out there that considers itself Kirk Cousins away from Superbowl contention. Such a team would be willing to go above and beyond market value in salary and years to ink Cousins. If that ends up being true, it’s difficult to imagine the Vikings matching given the transition period they’re in. It would likely take a mutually agreed upon discount to see Cousins back in Minnesota. Given Cousins’ track record for seeking long-term and guaranteed money, it just doesn’t feel likely.
Danielle Hunter: <1% Chance to Return
If not for Kirk Cousins also being a free agent, Danielle Hunter would rank as the most impactful player the Vikings could see exit this offseason. Hunter is also unfortunately the most likely Viking to walk. Like Cousins, Hunter is playing on a one-year deal that includes full franchise tag protections. Given Hunter’s impressive season, while hitting the market still firmly in his prime at 29, he’s going to get paid. The Vikings simply don’t have the salary cap space to compete with other teams that will be in on Hunter. There is a very real chance that the average annual value clears $30M for a pass rusher of his caliber. He’s just not the type of player that hits the open market very often. As such, Sunday night is all but guaranteed to be his last home game in purple and gold.
Harrison Smith: 50% Chance to Return
Harrison Smith has been the heart and soul of Minnesota’s defense for well over a decade now. While technically not a free agent, there is very little guaranteed money left on Smith’s deal. Set to average ~$21M in cap hits over the next two seasons, that’s simply too much for an aging safety. He’s still playing reasonably well, especially given that he’s 34. However, he’s far from his All-Pro peak and is the third-best member of an outstanding safety trio. That makes him very expendable to the Vikings at his current price tag.
The question will ultimately be whether Smith is willing to take a pay cut to remain with Minnesota next year. It’s very much within the realm of possibility that Smith would want to remain with the only organization he’s known. His presence as a leader in the locker room is valued by Head Coach Kevin O’Connell. Smith also remains a very high IQ defender that helps make Brian Flores’ blitz-heavy scheme work. The team will at minimum attempt to negotiate a rate that makes sense for both sides this offseason. With that in mind, Vikings fans can at least be hopeful that they haven’t seen the last of “The Hitman” as a Viking.
K.J. Osborn: 5% Chance to Return
K.J. Osborn has been a great luxury piece for the Vikings to have rostered the past four seasons. He quickly went from developmental fifth-rounder to impact option in the passing by his second year in the league. Given how little he’s been making during his Minnesota tenure, Osborn certainly qualifies as one of the team’s best values. With that said, it’s going to be extremely unlikely that the Vikings bring back Osborn in 2024.
The case can be made for both sides of the equation that separation is in their best interest. The Vikings just drafted Jordan Addison in the first round and are about to have to pony up for Justin Jefferson’s extension. Also Considering how much they’re paying for T.J. Hockenson, signing Osborn to a fair market value contract wouldn’t make sense. From Osborn’s perspective, Minnesota doesn’t provide the best opportunity for him to be a focal point of an offense. With the Vikings he’s capped as a third or fourth option in the passing game. Elsewhere, Osborn could be a quality #2 for a team lacking playmakers on the perimeter. It’s been a good run for Osborn and the Vikings, but this reunion just doesn’t make sense.
Main Photo: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports
